8. Capacitors are made by 2 machines, M1 and M2. The probability that a capacitor is manufactured acceptably varies according to the machine. The probabilities are 0.9 and 0.95 respectively for machine M1 and M2. Machine M1 manufactures 80% of the capacitors. (a) Draw a tree diagram and attach the probabilities for every branch and outcome. (b) “Flip the tree” and determine the probability that given it’s an acceptable capacitor it is manufactured by machine M1. (c) Find          (i) P(M1 | not A)          (ii) P(M2 | A)          (iii) P(M2 | not A). You may wish to use Bayes’ Theorem to check your answers.

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ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
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8. Capacitors are made by 2 machines, M1 and M2. The probability that a capacitor is manufactured acceptably varies according to the machine. The probabilities are 0.9 and 0.95 respectively for machine M1 and M2. Machine M1 manufactures 80% of the capacitors.

(a) Draw a tree diagram and attach the probabilities for every branch and outcome.

(b) “Flip the tree” and determine the probability that given it’s an acceptable capacitor it is manufactured by machine M1.

(c) Find

         (i) P(M1 | not A)

         (ii) P(M2 | A)

         (iii) P(M2 | not A).

You may wish to use Bayes’ Theorem to check your answers.

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