7. Suisan Fish Company must decide whether to build a small or a large warehouse at a new location, Kona. Demand at Kona can be either low or high, with probabilities estimated to be 0.3 and 0.7, respectively. If a small warehouse is built, and demand is high, the fish manager may choose to maintain the current size or to expand. The net present value of profits is $223,000 if the company chooses not to expand. However, if the firm chooses to expand, there is a 40% chance that the net present value of the returns will be $330,000 and a 60% chance the estimated net present value of profits will be $210,000. If a small warehouse is built and demand is low, there is no reason to expand and the net present value of the profits is $220,000. However, if a large warehouse is built and the demand turns out to be low, the choice is to do nothing with a net present value of $30,000 or to stimulate demand through local advertising. The response to advertising can be either modest wvith a probability of 3 or favorable with a
7. Suisan Fish Company must decide whether to build a small or a large warehouse at a new location, Kona. Demand at Kona can be either low or high, with probabilities estimated to be 0.3 and 0.7, respectively. If a small warehouse is built, and demand is high, the fish manager may choose to maintain the current size or to expand. The net present value of profits is $223,000 if the company chooses not to expand. However, if the firm chooses to expand, there is a 40% chance that the net present value of the returns will be $330,000 and a 60% chance the estimated net present value of profits will be $210,000. If a small warehouse is built and demand is low, there is no reason to expand and the net present value of the profits is $220,000. However, if a large warehouse is built and the demand turns out to be low, the choice is to do nothing with a net present value of $30,000 or to stimulate demand through local advertising. The response to advertising can be either modest wvith a probability of 3 or favorable with a
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
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Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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Decision Tree Analysis
![7. Suisan Fish Company must decide whether to build a small or a large warehouse at a
new location, Kona. Demand at Kona can be either low or high, with probabilities
estimated to be 0.3 and 0.7, respectively. If a small warehouse is built, and demand is
high, the fish manager may choose to maintain the current size or to expand. The net
present value of profits is $223,000 if the company chooses not to expand. However, if
the firm chooses to expand, there is a 40% chance that the net present value of the
returns will be $330,000 and a 60% chance the estimated net present value of profits will
be $210,000. If a small warehouse is built and demand is low, there is no reason to
expand and the net present value of the profits is $220,000. However, if a large
warehouse is built and the demand turns out to be low, the choice is to do nothing with a
net present value of $30,000 or to stimulate demand through local advertising. The
response to advertising can be either modest with a probability of .3 or favorable with a
probability of .7. If the response to advertising is modest, the net present value of the
profits is $20,000. However, if the response to advertising is favorable, then the net
present value of the profits is $220,000. Finally, if the large plant is built and the
demand happens to be high, the net present value of the profits $700,000.
Using decision tree analysis, determine what the company should do.](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2F4ebf2759-59a4-4687-9e64-2cf88860377f%2F7f0aee44-3b1e-41ec-b46a-d2c841996fa8%2Fqma63l_processed.png&w=3840&q=75)
Transcribed Image Text:7. Suisan Fish Company must decide whether to build a small or a large warehouse at a
new location, Kona. Demand at Kona can be either low or high, with probabilities
estimated to be 0.3 and 0.7, respectively. If a small warehouse is built, and demand is
high, the fish manager may choose to maintain the current size or to expand. The net
present value of profits is $223,000 if the company chooses not to expand. However, if
the firm chooses to expand, there is a 40% chance that the net present value of the
returns will be $330,000 and a 60% chance the estimated net present value of profits will
be $210,000. If a small warehouse is built and demand is low, there is no reason to
expand and the net present value of the profits is $220,000. However, if a large
warehouse is built and the demand turns out to be low, the choice is to do nothing with a
net present value of $30,000 or to stimulate demand through local advertising. The
response to advertising can be either modest with a probability of .3 or favorable with a
probability of .7. If the response to advertising is modest, the net present value of the
profits is $20,000. However, if the response to advertising is favorable, then the net
present value of the profits is $220,000. Finally, if the large plant is built and the
demand happens to be high, the net present value of the profits $700,000.
Using decision tree analysis, determine what the company should do.
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