6. Consider an urn which contains red balls and green balls. Initially there is just one green ball and one red ball in the urn. At each time step a ball is chosen randomly from the urn: (i) If the ball is red, then it's returned to the urn with an additional red ball; (ii) if the ball is green, then it's returned to the urn with an additional green ball. Let Xn denote the number of red balls in the urn after n draws. Suppose after 100 draws, there are 70 red balls, that is X100 = 70. What is the expected number of red balls in the urn after another 100 draws, that is E(X200|X100 = 70]? Round your answer to the nearest integer.

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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6. Consider an urn which contains red balls and green balls. Initially there is just one green
ball and one red ball in the urn. At each time step a ball is chosen randomly from the urn:
(i) If the ball is red, then it's returned to the urn with an additional red ball; (ii) if the ball is
green, then it's returned to the urn with an additional green ball.
Let Xp denote the number of red balls in the urn after n draws. Suppose after 100 draws,
there are 70 red balls, that is X100 = 70. What is the expected number of red balls in the
urn after another 100 draws, that is E[X200|X100 = 70]? Round your answer to the nearest
integer.
Hint: consider Yn = Xn/(n + 2).
%3D
Transcribed Image Text:6. Consider an urn which contains red balls and green balls. Initially there is just one green ball and one red ball in the urn. At each time step a ball is chosen randomly from the urn: (i) If the ball is red, then it's returned to the urn with an additional red ball; (ii) if the ball is green, then it's returned to the urn with an additional green ball. Let Xp denote the number of red balls in the urn after n draws. Suppose after 100 draws, there are 70 red balls, that is X100 = 70. What is the expected number of red balls in the urn after another 100 draws, that is E[X200|X100 = 70]? Round your answer to the nearest integer. Hint: consider Yn = Xn/(n + 2). %3D
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