5) Suppose the empirical probability of an accidental nuclear crisis on a given day is (3/18,250). Let's assume that a leader will launch a mistaken "retaliatory strike" 10% of the time when presented with an accidental nuclear crisis. Thus, given our assumptions, the probability of an accidental nuclear war on a given day is (3/182,500). Suppose that each day is independent. Hence the passing of days is a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials with p-(3/182,500). Let X be the number of days until an accidental nuclear war. a) How is X distributed? a) What is the mean (u), variance(o³), and standard deviation(o) of X? b) Convert the value, from part b, to years to obtain the expected number of years until an accidental nuclear war.

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5) Suppose the empirical probability of an accidental nuclear crisis on a given day is
(3/18,250). Let's assume that a leader will launch a mistaken "retaliatory strike" 10% of
the time when presented with an accidental nuclear crisis. Thus, given our assumptions,
the probability of an accidental nuclear war on a given day is (3/182,500). Suppose that
each day is independent. Hence the passing of days is a sequence of independent
Bernoulli trials with p-(3/182,500). Let X be the number of days until an accidental
nuclear war.
a) How is X distributed?
a) What is the mean (u), variance(o), and standard deviation(o) of X?
b) Convert the value, from part b, to years to obtain the expected number of years until
an accidental nuclear war.
Transcribed Image Text:5) Suppose the empirical probability of an accidental nuclear crisis on a given day is (3/18,250). Let's assume that a leader will launch a mistaken "retaliatory strike" 10% of the time when presented with an accidental nuclear crisis. Thus, given our assumptions, the probability of an accidental nuclear war on a given day is (3/182,500). Suppose that each day is independent. Hence the passing of days is a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials with p-(3/182,500). Let X be the number of days until an accidental nuclear war. a) How is X distributed? a) What is the mean (u), variance(o), and standard deviation(o) of X? b) Convert the value, from part b, to years to obtain the expected number of years until an accidental nuclear war.
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