4.6 The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were as follows: MONTH SALES January 20 February 21 March 15 April 14 May 13 June 16 July 17 August 18 September 20 October 20 November 21 December 23

4.6 The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were as follows: MONTH SALES January 20 February 21 March 15 April 14 May 13 June 16 July 17 August 18 September 20 October 20 November 21 December 23

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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Question

Can you assist me with Question 4.6 I've made attempts to solve but still don't understand. Can you please write the process out step by step? It's easier to follow along. Thank you kindly.

a) Plot the monthly sales data.

b) Forecast January sales using each of the following:
i) Naive method.
ii) A 3-month moving average.
iii) A 6-month weighted average using 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3, with the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months.
iv) Exponential smoothing using an α = 0.3 and a September forecast of 18.
v) A trend projection.

c) With the data given, which method would allow you to forecast next March’s sales?

**Monthly Sales Analysis for Yazici Batteries, Inc.**

The table below shows the monthly sales figures for Yazici Batteries, Inc. The data outlines the sales performance across each month:

| Month | Sales |
|------------|-------|
| January | 20 |
| February | 21 |
| March | 15 |
| April | 14 |
| May | 13 |
| June | 16 |
| July | 17 |
| August | 18 |
| September | 20 |
| October | 20 |
| November | 21 |
| December | 23 |

**Analysis:**

- **Highest Sales**: December experienced the highest sales with 23 units, indicating strong demand possibly due to year-end purchases or holiday season promotions.

- **Lowest Sales**: May had the lowest sales figure at 13 units, which might indicate a seasonal dip in sales.

- **Consistent Performance**: There is a noticeable consistency in sales between January and February, September and October, where each pair of months recorded the same sales figures (20 units).

- **General Trend**: Sales appear to decrease during the middle months of the year and rise towards the end, which could suggest seasonal influences on consumer purchasing behavior.

This data can assist in identifying trends and making informed decisions for future sales strategies and inventory management.

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