3. A consulting firm submitted a bid for a large consulting contract. The firm's management felt bid had a 50-50 chance of landing the project. However, the agency o which the bid was submitted subsequently asked for additional information. Past experience indicates that that for 75% of successful bids and 40% of unsuccessful olds the agency asked for additional information. a. What is the prior probability of the bid being successful (that is, prior to the request for additional information). b. c. d. Compute the posterior probabilities using Tabular Approach to Bayes' Theorem What is the conditional probability of a request for additional information given that the bid will be ultimately successful? Compute the posterior probability that the bid will be successful given a request for additional information.

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Author:Sheldon Ross
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6. A consulting firm submitted a bid for a large consulting contract. The firm's
management felt bid had a 50-50 chance of landing the project. However, the agency
to which the bid was submitted subsequently asked for additional information. Past
experience indicates that that for 75% of successful bids and 40% of unsuccessful
bids the agency asked for additional information.
a. What is the prior probability of the bid being successful (that is, prior to
the request for additional information).
b.
What is the conditional probability of a request for additional information
given that the bid will be ultimately successful?
c.
d. Compute the posterior probabilities using Tabular Approach to Bayes'
Theorem
Compute the posterior probability that the bid will be successful given a
request for additional information.
314
Transcribed Image Text:6. A consulting firm submitted a bid for a large consulting contract. The firm's management felt bid had a 50-50 chance of landing the project. However, the agency to which the bid was submitted subsequently asked for additional information. Past experience indicates that that for 75% of successful bids and 40% of unsuccessful bids the agency asked for additional information. a. What is the prior probability of the bid being successful (that is, prior to the request for additional information). b. What is the conditional probability of a request for additional information given that the bid will be ultimately successful? c. d. Compute the posterior probabilities using Tabular Approach to Bayes' Theorem Compute the posterior probability that the bid will be successful given a request for additional information. 314
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