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3 4 B D E F G H Ј K L M N Forecasting with Trend using Exponential Smoothing Step 1. Complete table below filling in yellow cells with appropriate formulas. α 0.3 В 0.2 5 6 Month Period Sales | Level Trend Forecast Error Error squared 7 Avg through April 0 780 100 8 May 1 880 9 June 2 910 10 July 3 990 11 August 4 1080 12 September 5 1116 13 October 6 1220 14 November 7 1299 15 December 8 1402 16 January 9 1540 17 February 10 1620 18 March 11 1705 19 April 12 1813 20 May 13 21 June 14 22 23 24 Forecast equation 25 26 27 28 Level equation Trend equation ŷt +ht = 4+ + hbt +=+ - l₁ = αy₁ + (1 − α) ( + 1 + b₁ = 1) b = ß³ (ls – 4-1) + (1 − ß″)α-1, Mean Squared Error (MSE) NOTE: Use your forecast to estimate Sales for May (month=13). Using this estimate, you can then forecast an additional month into the future, June (14). Know that your accuracy decreases as you extend further into the Step 2. After calculating with the given alpha and beta, find the minimum MSE by optimizing alpha and beta using Excel's Solver tool. Submit your work with only this answer. NOTE: MSE is a simple average of the Error-squared above. 29

3 4 B D E F G H Ј K L M N Forecasting with Trend using Exponential Smoothing Step 1. Complete table below filling in yellow cells with appropriate formulas. α 0.3 В 0.2 5 6 Month Period Sales | Level Trend Forecast Error Error squared 7 Avg through April 0 780 100 8 May 1 880 9 June 2 910 10 July 3 990 11 August 4 1080 12 September 5 1116 13 October 6 1220 14 November 7 1299 15 December 8 1402 16 January 9 1540 17 February 10 1620 18 March 11 1705 19 April 12 1813 20 May 13 21 June 14 22 23 24 Forecast equation 25 26 27 28 Level equation Trend equation ŷt +ht = 4+ + hbt +=+ - l₁ = αy₁ + (1 − α) ( + 1 + b₁ = 1) b = ß³ (ls – 4-1) + (1 − ß″)α-1, Mean Squared Error (MSE) NOTE: Use your forecast to estimate Sales for May (month=13). Using this estimate, you can then forecast an additional month into the future, June (14). Know that your accuracy decreases as you extend further into the Step 2. After calculating with the given alpha and beta, find the minimum MSE by optimizing alpha and beta using Excel's Solver tool. Submit your work with only this answer. NOTE: MSE is a simple average of the Error-squared above. 29

Advanced Engineering Mathematics
Advanced Engineering Mathematics
10th Edition
ISBN:9780470458365
Author:Erwin Kreyszig
Publisher:Erwin Kreyszig
Chapter2: Second-order Linear Odes
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1RQ
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3 4 B D E F G H Ј K L M N Forecasting with Trend using Exponential Smoothing Step 1. Complete table below filling in yellow cells with appropriate formulas. α 0.3 В 0.2 5 6 Month Period Sales | Level Trend Forecast Error Error squared 7 Avg through April 0 780 100 8 May 1 880 9 June 2 910 10 July 3 990 11 August 4 1080 12 September 5 1116 13 October 6 1220 14 November 7 1299 15 December 8 1402 16 January 9 1540 17 February 10 1620 18 March 11 1705 19 April 12 1813 20 May 13 21 June 14 22 23 24 Forecast equation 25 26 27 28 Level equation Trend equation ŷt +ht = 4+ + hbt +=+ - l₁ = αy₁ + (1 − α) ( + 1 + b₁ = 1) b = ß³ (ls – 4-1) + (1 − ß″)α-1, Mean Squared Error (MSE) NOTE: Use your forecast to estimate Sales for May (month=13). Using this estimate, you can then forecast an additional month into the future, June (14). Know that your accuracy decreases as you extend further into the Step 2. After calculating with the given alpha and beta, find the minimum MSE by optimizing alpha and beta using Excel's Solver tool. Submit your work with only this answer. NOTE: MSE is a simple average of the Error-squared above. 29
Transcribed Image Text:3 4 B D E F G H Ј K L M N Forecasting with Trend using Exponential Smoothing Step 1. Complete table below filling in yellow cells with appropriate formulas. α 0.3 В 0.2 5 6 Month Period Sales | Level Trend Forecast Error Error squared 7 Avg through April 0 780 100 8 May 1 880 9 June 2 910 10 July 3 990 11 August 4 1080 12 September 5 1116 13 October 6 1220 14 November 7 1299 15 December 8 1402 16 January 9 1540 17 February 10 1620 18 March 11 1705 19 April 12 1813 20 May 13 21 June 14 22 23 24 Forecast equation 25 26 27 28 Level equation Trend equation ŷt +ht = 4+ + hbt +=+ - l₁ = αy₁ + (1 − α) ( + 1 + b₁ = 1) b = ß³ (ls – 4-1) + (1 − ß″)α-1, Mean Squared Error (MSE) NOTE: Use your forecast to estimate Sales for May (month=13). Using this estimate, you can then forecast an additional month into the future, June (14). Know that your accuracy decreases as you extend further into the Step 2. After calculating with the given alpha and beta, find the minimum MSE by optimizing alpha and beta using Excel's Solver tool. Submit your work with only this answer. NOTE: MSE is a simple average of the Error-squared above. 29
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