26. The annual numbers of fatal traffic motor accidents are monitored in three different geographical regions, with the results given in Table 5.14. Two analysts are asked to predict the number of fatal traffic accidents for Region A for next year. Analyst 1 would like to like to use the empirical Bayes Model 1 to make a prediction. Analyst 2 is going to use a Bayesian approach assuming the number of annual traffic accidents is a Poisson variable with parameter A, and where she can assume prior knowledge of A summarized by a gamma I (54, 3) distribution. Find the predictions which the two analysts would make in this situation! TABLE 5.14 Annual fatal traffic accidents. Year →>> 1 2 3 4 5 6 Region A 14 17 12 19 18 16 Region B 21 32 16 7 17 33 Region C 11 7 9 8 12 13

Linear Algebra: A Modern Introduction
4th Edition
ISBN:9781285463247
Author:David Poole
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Chapter7: Distance And Approximation
Section7.3: Least Squares Approximation
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26. The annual numbers of fatal traffic motor accidents are monitored in
three different geographical regions, with the results given in Table 5.14.
Two analysts are asked to predict the number of fatal traffic accidents
for Region A for next year. Analyst 1 would like to like to use the
empirical Bayes Model 1 to make a prediction. Analyst 2 is going to use
a Bayesian approach assuming the number of annual traffic accidents is
a Poisson variable with parameter A, and where she can assume prior
knowledge of A summarized by a gamma I (54, 3) distribution. Find the
predictions which the two analysts would make in this situation!
TABLE 5.14
Annual fatal traffic accidents.
Year →>> 1
2
3 4 5 6
Region A
14
17
12 19
18 16
Region B
21
32
16
7
17 33
Region C
11
7
9
8
12
13
Transcribed Image Text:26. The annual numbers of fatal traffic motor accidents are monitored in three different geographical regions, with the results given in Table 5.14. Two analysts are asked to predict the number of fatal traffic accidents for Region A for next year. Analyst 1 would like to like to use the empirical Bayes Model 1 to make a prediction. Analyst 2 is going to use a Bayesian approach assuming the number of annual traffic accidents is a Poisson variable with parameter A, and where she can assume prior knowledge of A summarized by a gamma I (54, 3) distribution. Find the predictions which the two analysts would make in this situation! TABLE 5.14 Annual fatal traffic accidents. Year →>> 1 2 3 4 5 6 Region A 14 17 12 19 18 16 Region B 21 32 16 7 17 33 Region C 11 7 9 8 12 13
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