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26. The annual numbers of fatal traffic motor accidents are monitored in three different geographical regions, with the results given in Table 5.14. Two analysts are asked to predict the number of fatal traffic accidents for Region A for next year. Analyst 1 would like to like to use the empirical Bayes Model 1 to make a prediction. Analyst 2 is going to use a Bayesian approach assuming the number of annual traffic accidents is a Poisson variable with parameter A, and where she can assume prior knowledge of A summarized by a gamma I (54, 3) distribution. Find the predictions which the two analysts would make in this situation! TABLE 5.14 Annual fatal traffic accidents. Year →>> 1 2 3 4 5 6 Region A 14 17 12 19 18 16 Region B 21 32 16 7 17 33 Region C 11 7 9 8 12 13

26. The annual numbers of fatal traffic motor accidents are monitored in three different geographical regions, with the results given in Table 5.14. Two analysts are asked to predict the number of fatal traffic accidents for Region A for next year. Analyst 1 would like to like to use the empirical Bayes Model 1 to make a prediction. Analyst 2 is going to use a Bayesian approach assuming the number of annual traffic accidents is a Poisson variable with parameter A, and where she can assume prior knowledge of A summarized by a gamma I (54, 3) distribution. Find the predictions which the two analysts would make in this situation! TABLE 5.14 Annual fatal traffic accidents. Year →>> 1 2 3 4 5 6 Region A 14 17 12 19 18 16 Region B 21 32 16 7 17 33 Region C 11 7 9 8 12 13

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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26. The annual numbers of fatal traffic motor accidents are monitored in three different geographical regions, with the results given in Table 5.14. Two analysts are asked to predict the number of fatal traffic accidents for Region A for next year. Analyst 1 would like to like to use the empirical Bayes Model 1 to make a prediction. Analyst 2 is going to use a Bayesian approach assuming the number of annual traffic accidents is a Poisson variable with parameter A, and where she can assume prior knowledge of A summarized by a gamma I (54, 3) distribution. Find the predictions which the two analysts would make in this situation! TABLE 5.14 Annual fatal traffic accidents. Year →>> 1 2 3 4 5 6 Region A 14 17 12 19 18 16 Region B 21 32 16 7 17 33 Region C 11 7 9 8 12 13
Transcribed Image Text:26. The annual numbers of fatal traffic motor accidents are monitored in three different geographical regions, with the results given in Table 5.14. Two analysts are asked to predict the number of fatal traffic accidents for Region A for next year. Analyst 1 would like to like to use the empirical Bayes Model 1 to make a prediction. Analyst 2 is going to use a Bayesian approach assuming the number of annual traffic accidents is a Poisson variable with parameter A, and where she can assume prior knowledge of A summarized by a gamma I (54, 3) distribution. Find the predictions which the two analysts would make in this situation! TABLE 5.14 Annual fatal traffic accidents. Year →>> 1 2 3 4 5 6 Region A 14 17 12 19 18 16 Region B 21 32 16 7 17 33 Region C 11 7 9 8 12 13
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