20. The Video Game Supply Company (VGS) is deciding whether to set next year'sproduction at 2000, 2500, or 3000 games. Demand could be low, medium, orhigh. Using historical data, VGS estimates the probabilities as: 0.4 for lowdemand, 0.3 for medium demand, and 0.3 for high demand. The following profitpayoff table (in $100s) has been developed.DemandProduction TargetLowMediumHigh2000 games2500 games3000 games1000120014008001500130060017001400(a) [1] What is the maximax decision alternative?(b) [1] What is the maximin decision alternative?(c) [2] Determine the expected value of each alternative and indicate whatshould be the production target for next year based on expected value.(d) [1] Determine the expected value with perfect information about the states ofnature.(e) [1] Determine the expected value of perfect information.

Decision making is the process of choosing best decision from all available or possible outcome.…

Answered: 20. The Video Game Supply Company (VGS)…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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3. The manager for a manufacturing company must recommend whether to construct a large plant, construct a small plant or do nothing. He estimates the long-run profits in $ as follows: State of Nature Alternative Good Average Poor Market($) Market ($) Market ($) Construct a 100,000 35,000 -60,000 large plant Construct a 75,000 25,000 -40,000 small plant Do nothing -5,000 0 0 Probability 25% 50% 25% Solve using: A. Expected Opportunity Loss B. Expected Value of Perfect Information
(b) Demand history of five different products of a company is shown below. Products 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 A 37 40 41 45 49 26 34 30 26 23 33 28 32 C 58 55 32 38 45 56 62 70 77 86 95 83 88 81 92 85 i. Name the methods that is suitable to forecast the demand of the above five products? ii. Forecast demand of the product B or D with error for the year 2021. If you need a value of a then consider it 0.7.
Sales for the last quarter of the year were good, with tops sales at 3,400 units and pants sales at 3,200 units. Demand for the first quarter sales of next year is expected to decline by 8%. What is your forecast for the demand of tops and pants? Tops Sales Forecast: 0 ▲ ▼ Pants Sales Forecast: 0 ▲ ▼ Is there anything you could do to help minimize the effect of the projected decline in demand on sales?
A store has the following demand figures for the last four years: Year Demand 100 1 150 3 112 4 200 Given a demand forecast for year 2 of 100, a trend forecast for year 2 of 10, an alpha of 0.3, and a beta of 0.2, what is the demand forecast for year 3 using the exponential smoothing with trend method? 128 115 Ⓒ 135 Ⓒ 145
DLSU 40,000 (COB 5,000; CCS 15%; CLA 20%; COL 5% and others) Average price per computer device Php25,000Average price per Apple device Php30,000 Among them, 40% of students of COB, 50% of CLA, and 80% of COL owns at least one Apple device. Compare the brand penetration of Apple in the above colleges. What is the penetration share of Apple in the above colleges. Given that students replace their Apple devices once every 3 years on average, what is the market size (units/revenues) for computer devices for these colleges until the end of 2025? What is the concentration of sales/revenue of Apple devices among the colleges (BDI)? Compare the CDI and BDI of the colleges. Insights?
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The table below shows the sales of widgets (in units) over the past 5 years. Using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.2, what is the forecast for next year? The initial forecast (for 5 years ago) was 1,200 units. Forecast: Time Sales 5 years ago 1,140 4 years ago 1,220 3 years ago 1,450 2 years ago 1,090 Last year 1,150 (Do not round intermediate calculations, round your final answer to the nearest whole number.)
Demand history for the past three years is shown below, along with the seasonal indices for each quarter. Seasonal Index Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Quarter Q1 02 03 04 Q1 02 Q3 04 01 Q2 Q3 04 Demand 225 253 392 310 229 242 391 360 220 256 400 288 0.756 0.845 1.327 1.075 0.756 0.845 1.327 1.075 0.756 0.845 1.327 1.075 Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Use exponential smoothing with alpha (a) = 0.2 and an initial forecast of 297 along with seasonality to calculate the Year 4, Q1 forecast.
QUESTION 3 Samoto Limited (SL) relies on an external supplier for production capacity. In order to gain access to a certain level of production capacity, SL will have to commit to an annual contract before the start of the operating period. The contract will stipulate the production capacity entitlement of SL. SL has a choice of three contracts: Contract Mega, Contract Upper, and Contract Soso. Regardless of the choice of contract, the company will be subject to three states of nature: high demand, medium demand and low demand. The net profits generated by each of the contracts under the three states of nature are as follows: Net profit (£000) Medium demand High demand Low demand Contract Mega Contract Upper Contract Soso 20,000 17,000 16,500 15,500 16,000 15,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 The probabilities of the states of nature are as follows: High demand Medium demand Low demand 25% 45% 30% Probability
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1. A firm practices a pure chase strategy. Production last quarter was 818. Demand over the next four quarters is estimated to be 975, 935, 886, and 968. Hiring cost is $19 per unit, and layoff cost is $6 per unit. Over the next year, what will be the sum of hiring and firing costs? 2. A firm practices a pure level strategy that sets the production level at the average demand over the next four periods. Inventory last quarter was 0. The extra units produced are stored in a warehouse. The extra units needed are subcontracted. Demand over the next four quarters is estimated to be 1041, 1019, 1188, and 1090. Production cost is $25 per unit, and Inventory cost is $4 per unit. What is the production level at this form?
29 A project being analyzed by PERT has 60 activities, 13 of which are on the critical path. If the estimated time along the critical path is 214 days with a project variance of 100, what is the probability that the project will take 224 days or more to complete? Select one: a. 0.1587 b. 2.14 c. near zero d. 0.0126 e. 0.8413

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