2.103 A truth serum has the property that 90% of the guilty suspects are properly judged while, of course, 10% of the guilty suspects are improperly found inno- cent. On the other hand, innocent suspects are mis- judged 1% of the time. If the suspect was selected from a group of suspects of which only 5% have ever committed a crime, and the serum indicates that he is guilty, what is the probability that he is innocent?

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