2. (Finite Stochastic Processes). If a baseball team wins a game, they have a 39% chance of winning the next game due to getting overconfident (draws/ties should not occur in baseball). If they lose the previous came, there is a 67.5% chance they will win the next game. Assume that for the first game there is a 50% chance of winning. What is the probability the team wins the fourth game? Please give a complete, fully typed, solution to the problem. Please do not submit photos of hand-written notes instead of properly typed math text! (this may lead to going back “on" the screening, if you are currently “off" the screening).

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