15. ( Disease test): According to the clinical records, the accuracy rate of a certain cancer diagnosis test is 95%, that is, the probability of cancer patients being diagnosed with cancer and the probability of healthy people being told to be healthy are both 95%. Now, the general survey in natural population is carried out, and the prior probability of the tested person suffering from cancer is 0.006. Find out the probability of the diagnosed person suffering from cancer when the test results are known to be positive. (Let A="the test reaction is positive" and C= "the diagnosed person has cancer")

15. ( Disease test): According to the clinical records, the accuracy rate of a certain cancer diagnosis test is 95%, that is, the probability of cancer patients being diagnosed with cancer and the probability of healthy people being told to be healthy are both 95%. Now, the general survey in natural population is carried out, and the prior probability of the tested person suffering from cancer is 0.006. Find out the probability of the diagnosed person suffering from cancer when the test results are known to be positive. (Let A="the test reaction is positive" and C= "the diagnosed person has cancer")

Calculus For The Life Sciences

2nd Edition

ISBN:9780321964038

Author:GREENWELL, Raymond N., RITCHEY, Nathan P., Lial, Margaret L.

Publisher:GREENWELL, Raymond N., RITCHEY, Nathan P., Lial, Margaret L.

Chapter12: Probability

Section12.3: Conditional Probability; Independent Events; Bayes' Theorem

Problem 59E

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