13. Consider a town in which 90% of the taxis are blue and 10% are green. One night a taxi hits a pedestrian and speeds off. A witness says.that the taxi was green. The pedestrian sues the Green Cab Co. The court orders a test of the witness's nighttime color perception. The test reveals that the witness correctly identifies 70% of blue color samples and 80% of green color samples. If a juror were to employ the representativeness heuristic to estimate the probability that the cab is green, he would overestimate that probability by the amount (a) 9/10 (b) 33/70 (c) 4/7 (d) 8/35 (e) 10/21

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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13. Consider a town in which 90% of the taxis are blue and 10% are green. One
night a taxi hits a pedestrian and speeds off. A witness says.that the taxi
was green. The pedestrian sues the Green Cab Co. The court orders a test
of the witness's nighttime color perception. The test reveals that the witness
correctly identifies 70% of blue color samples and 80% of green color samples.
If a juror were to employ the representativeness heuristic to estimate the
probability that the cab is green, he would overestimate that probability by
the amount
(a) 9/10
(b) 33/70
(c) 4/7
(d) 8/35
(e) 10/21
Transcribed Image Text:13. Consider a town in which 90% of the taxis are blue and 10% are green. One night a taxi hits a pedestrian and speeds off. A witness says.that the taxi was green. The pedestrian sues the Green Cab Co. The court orders a test of the witness's nighttime color perception. The test reveals that the witness correctly identifies 70% of blue color samples and 80% of green color samples. If a juror were to employ the representativeness heuristic to estimate the probability that the cab is green, he would overestimate that probability by the amount (a) 9/10 (b) 33/70 (c) 4/7 (d) 8/35 (e) 10/21
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