11. If the daily, 95% confidence level value at risk (VaR) of a portfolio is correctly estimated to be USD 10,000, which of the following statements are correct: I. In 1 out of 20 days, the portfolio value will decline by USD 10,000 or less. II. In 1 out of 20 days, the portfolio value will decline by USD 10,000 or more. III. In 19 out of 20 days, the portfolio value will decline more than USD 10,000. IV. In 19 out of 20 days, the portfolio value will not decline by USD 10,000 or more. (a) I (b) II (c) I and III (d) II and IV

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11. If the daily, 95% confidence level value at risk (VaR) of a portfolio is correctly estimated to be USD
10,000, which of the following statements are correct:
I. In 1 out of 20 days, the portfolio value will decline by USD 10,000 or less.
II. In 1 out of 20 days, the portfolio value will decline by USD 10,000 or more.
III. In 19 out of 20 days, the portfolio value will decline more than USD 10,000.
IV. In 19 out of 20 days, the portfolio value will not decline by USD 10,000 or more.
(a) I
(b) II
(c) I and III
(d) II and IV
12. Assume that portfolio daily returns are independently and identically normally distributed with
mean zero. A new quantitative analyst has been asked by the portfolio manager to calculate
portfolio VaRs for 10-, 15-, 20-, and 25-day periods. The portfolio manager notices something
amiss with the analyst's calculations. Assuming the annualized volatilities of daily returns for the
four periods are equal, which of the following VaRs on this portfolio is inconsistent with the others?
(a) VaR(10-day) = USD 316 million
(b) VaR(15-day) = USD 426 million
(c) VaR(20-day) = USD 447 million
(d) VaR(25-day) = USD 500 million
13. A (possibly biased) coin is tossed twice. If the outcome is two heads, $5 is received. If any tail
occurs a consolation prize of $1 is received. The fair price to play this game is $4. What is the
implied probability of heads?
(a) 0.87
(b) 0.61
(c) 0.71
(d) 0.80
Transcribed Image Text:11. If the daily, 95% confidence level value at risk (VaR) of a portfolio is correctly estimated to be USD 10,000, which of the following statements are correct: I. In 1 out of 20 days, the portfolio value will decline by USD 10,000 or less. II. In 1 out of 20 days, the portfolio value will decline by USD 10,000 or more. III. In 19 out of 20 days, the portfolio value will decline more than USD 10,000. IV. In 19 out of 20 days, the portfolio value will not decline by USD 10,000 or more. (a) I (b) II (c) I and III (d) II and IV 12. Assume that portfolio daily returns are independently and identically normally distributed with mean zero. A new quantitative analyst has been asked by the portfolio manager to calculate portfolio VaRs for 10-, 15-, 20-, and 25-day periods. The portfolio manager notices something amiss with the analyst's calculations. Assuming the annualized volatilities of daily returns for the four periods are equal, which of the following VaRs on this portfolio is inconsistent with the others? (a) VaR(10-day) = USD 316 million (b) VaR(15-day) = USD 426 million (c) VaR(20-day) = USD 447 million (d) VaR(25-day) = USD 500 million 13. A (possibly biased) coin is tossed twice. If the outcome is two heads, $5 is received. If any tail occurs a consolation prize of $1 is received. The fair price to play this game is $4. What is the implied probability of heads? (a) 0.87 (b) 0.61 (c) 0.71 (d) 0.80
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