Classwork #9-ExplainVariation-TrumpVote
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Date
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Classwork #9-ExplainVariation-TrumpVote
March 28, 2024
1
Classwork #9: Predicting Presidents by Explaining Variation
[2]:
# This code will load the R packages we will use
suppressPackageStartupMessages
({
library
(coursekata)
})
# Updated USStates data with election data
USStates
<-
read.csv
(
"https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/
↪
2PACX-1vSEc6kO1zrL_3Jlc_cA7cMgk6E2xcIjuUbTL50y-0ENwWby36EFj1MpWZLVKud8YMTtqb1zsef_a8Ss/
↪
pub?gid=1275513973&single=true&output=csv"
, header
=
TRUE
)
1.1
1.0 - Which states might vote for Trump in 2024?
Former president Trump made these remarks at CPAC 2021:
Actually, as you know, they just lost the White House.
But it’s one of those things.
But who knows, who knows? I may even decide to beat them for a third time. Okay?
Today we will consider this question:
If president Trump decided to run again in 2024,
what kind of states would vote for him?
1.1 - One of the biggest uses of statistics is for the purpose of prediction. Why might it be useful
to predict voting results of presidential elections?
[3]:
head
(USStates)
A data.frame: 6 × 19
State
HouseholdIncome
IQ
Region
Population
EighthGradeMath
Hi
<chr>
<int>
<dbl>
<chr>
<dbl>
<dbl>
<d
1
Alabama
38160
95.7
S
5.024279
262.21
82
2
Alaska
57071
99.0
W
0.733391
278.96
90
3
Arizona
46693
97.4
W
7.151502
274.31
84
4
Arkansas
37458
97.5
S
3.011524
271.64
79
5
California
54385
95.5
W
39.538223
268.56
81
6
Colorado
53900
101.6
W
5.773714
280.82
88
We’re going to look at a data frame called
USStates
. Remember that you can use functions like
head()
, and
glimpse()
to get different kinds of information about the data.
In addition to the offcially documented data, we added a variable called
TrumpVote20
.
1
•
State
Name of state
•
HouseholdIncome
Mean household income (in dollars)
•
IQ
Mean IQ score of residents
•
McCainVote
Percentage of votes for John McCain in 2008 Presidential election
•
Region
Area of the country: MW=Midwest, NE=Northeast, S=South, or W=West
•
Pres2008
Which president won that state in 2008 (McCain or Obama)
•
Population
Number of residents (in millions)
•
EighthGradeMath
Average score on standardized test administered to 8th graders
•
HighSchool
Percentage of high school graduates
•
GSP
Gross State Product (dollars per capita)
•
FiveVegetables
Percentage of residents who eat at least five servings of fruits/vegetables
per day
•
Smokers
Percentage of residents who smoke
•
PhysicalActivity
Percentage of residents who have competed in a physical activity in past
month
•
Obese
Percentage of residents classified as obese
•
College
Percentage of residents with college degrees
•
NonWhite
Percentage of residents who are not white
•
HeavyDrinkers
Percentage of residents who drink heavily
•
TrumpVote16
Percentage of votes for Donald Trump in 2016 Presidential election
•
TrumpVote20
Percentage of votes for Donald Trump in 2020 Presidential election
•
BidenVote20
Percentage of votes for Joe Biden in 2020 Presidential election
1.2 - Take a look at the variable
TrumpVote20
at the very end of the data frame.
Does the
TrumpVote20
variable tell you how many people voted for Trump? Why or why not?
It doesn’t show many people exactly but it gives us a percentage
1.3 - To explore variation in how the states voted, make a visualization of
TrumpVote20
. What do
you notice? Is there anything surprising about this distribution?
[4]:
gf_histogram
(
~
TrumpVote20, data
=
USStates)
2
1.2
2.0 - Explaining Variation in
TrumpVote20
2.1 - You might suppose that states that had a large share of votes for Trump in 2020 might also
have larger shares of Trump votes in 2024. It might not be exactly the same, but similar. What
kind of states might tend to vote for Trump? Take a look at some of the variables in the data frame
for some ideas.
population religion
2.2 -
Quick Review
: What does it mean to “explain variation”?
Explaining variation means that variation is underestood with the variable
2.3 - Which of these two variables do you think will likely explain more of the variation in
TrumpVote20
:
FiveVegetables
or
NonWhite
? Why?
I think Nonwhite because I don’t think eating 5 vegetables will show that much of a relationship
2.4 - Let’s apply our casual definition of “explaining variation.” What would it mean for
NonWhite
to explain the variation in
TrumpVote20
? What would it mean for
FiveVegetables
to explain the
variation in
TrumpVote20
?
Nonwhite shows nonwhite people that voted for trump and FiveVegetables means that people eat
five vegetables a day voted for trump
2.5 - What we have are two little theories about the world.
Let’s write these theories as
word
equations
to represent the relationship between variables. These word equations will serve as our
3
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first attempt to
model
the variation we see in
TrumpVote20
. How would we interpret these word
equations?
TrumpVote20=FiveVegetables + Other stuff TrumpVote20= NonWhite + Other Stuff
2.6 - What if we find out neither of our models help us explain variation in
TrumpVote20
? How
would we update our word equation? How would we interpret it in words?
TrumpVote20= Other Stuff
1.3
3.0 - Exploring
TrumpVote20
=
NonWhite
+ Other Stuff.
3.1 - Let’s take a look at a few states, and their level of
TrumpVote20
and
NonWhite
percentages.
Is there a way to look just at those variables in this data frame?
Yes by using select
[5]:
select
(USStates, State, TrumpVote20, NonWhite)
%>%
head
()
A data.frame: 6 × 3
State
TrumpVote20
NonWhite
<chr>
<dbl>
<dbl>
1
Alabama
62.03
29.4
2
Alaska
52.83
26.2
3
Arizona
49.06
31.1
4
Arkansas
62.40
17.8
5
California
34.32
53.0
6
Colorado
41.90
22.5
3.2 - Let’s just take a look at the state of Alabama. What do these numbers mean?
[6]:
filter
(USStates, State
==
"Alabama"
)
A data.frame: 1 × 19
State
HouseholdIncome
IQ
Region
Population
EighthGradeMath
HighSc
<chr>
<int>
<dbl>
<chr>
<dbl>
<dbl>
<dbl>
Alabama
38160
95.7
S
5.024279
262.21
82.4
3.3 - Let’s make a visualization to explore this model: some of the variation in the percentage of
votes for Trump is explained by the proportion of
NonWhite
individuals in that state. If I run the
code below, I get a very unfortunate looking plot. Why?
[7]:
gf_histogram
(
~
TrumpVote20, data
=
USStates)
%>%
gf_facet_grid
(NonWhite
~
.)
4
[8]:
USStates
$
NonWhite
1. 29.4 2. 26.2 3. 31.1 4. 17.8 5. 53 6. 22.5 7. 16.4 8. 22.1 9. 35.7 10. 36.8 11. 73.3 12. 13.5 13. 32
14. 14.1 15. 6.8 16. 13.6 17. 9.4 18. 36.9 19. 4.8 20. 37.6 21. 17.2 22. 21.1 23. 9.8 24. 37.7 25. 15.7
26. 9 27. 12.4 28. 37.4 29. 5.4 30. 35.2 31. 48.9 32. 39.1 33. 29.5 34. 7 35. 14.9 36. 28.1 37. 16.8
38. 15.4 39. 16.5 40. 33.3 41. 8.3 42. 20.3 43. 43.1 44. 12.1 45. 5.6 46. 22.9 47. 18.1 48. 7.7 49. 9.1
50. 9.6
3.4 - Try to find a more effective way of visualizing the relationship between
NonWhite
and
TrumpVote20
variables.
[15]:
gf_point
(TrumpVote20
~
NonWhite, data
=
USStates)
%>%
gf_lm
()
5
3.5 - What do you notice in this visualization? Are you surprised by anything you see here?
Nonwhite votes decrease and are low. Im not susprised due to the narrative that trump is a racist
and misogynist was heavy at the time
3.6 - Hmmm…
TrumpVote20
and
NonWhite
are both percentages but one is out of 1.00 and the other
is out of 100. What can we do to make them both consistent? Then, try making the visualization
again. Does it change? What changes? What stays the same?
NonWhite states with high percentages shows lower trump votes. For a low Nonwhite state theres
higher percentage
3.7 - Based on this, how would you adjust your prediction of
TrumpVote20
for a hypothetical state
that had a very high
NonWhite
percentage? How about for a low
NonWhite
state?
NonWhite states with high percentage shows lower trump votes. For a low NonWhite states theres
higher percentage
1.4
4.0 - Exploring
TrumpVote20
=
FiveVegetables
+ Other Stuff
4.1 - Make a visualization to explore the idea that some of the variation in
TrumpVote20
is explained
by
FiveVegetables
.
[17]:
gf_point
(TrumpVote20
~
FiveVegetables, data
=
USStates)
%>%
gf_lm
()
6
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4.2 - What do you notice in this visualization? Are you surprised by anything you see here?
i noticed a decrease of people that eat FiveVegetables among all 50 states
4.3 - Based on this, how would you adjust your prediction of
TrumpVote20
for a hypothetical state
that had a very high
FiveVegetables
percentage? For a low
FiveVegetables
state?
1.5
5.0 - Comparing our Two Models
5.1 - Based on our visualizations, what kinds of states seem to have a lower
TrumpVote20
?
[ ]:
The states that had more vegetables throughout the day had lower trump votes
and nonwhites
5.2 - If we didn’t know anything about a state, what should we predict their
TrumpVote20
to be?
[ ]:
That
'
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a
r
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b
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5.3 - As you eyeball the visualizations you’ve made so far, which variable seems to explain more
variation in
TrumpVote20
:
FiveVegetables
or
NonWhite
? What aspect of the visualizations are
you looking at to make that judgment?
[18]:
gf_point
(TrumpVote20
~
FiveVegetables, data
=
USStates)
%>%
gf_lm
()
gf_point
(TrumpVote20
~
NonWhite, data
=
USStates)
%>%
gf_lm
()
7
8
5.4 - Now that we have explored this data, consider this tweet that someone wrote. What’s wrong
with it?
Eating some kale salad?
You probably aren’t a Trump supporter!
Data proves that
people who eat unhealthy are more likely to vote for Trump.
1.6
6.0 - Reflect and Connect
6.1 - In our Jupyter notebook lesson
4A
, we looked at the
gamesales
data and explored whether
a video game’s platform can explain variation in critic and user ratings. How could we write those
models of the data with our word equations?
[ ]:
Critic_Scores
=
Platform
+
Other Stuff
User_Scores
=
Platform
+
Other Stuff
6.2 - Compare those to the models we explored today:
•
TrumpVote20
=
NonWhite
+ Other Stuff
•
TrumpVote20
=
FiveVegetables
+ Other Stuff
Aside from the variable names, what makes our models in 4A different from our models in 4B?
What makes them similar?
[ ]:
The outcome variables are quantitative which makes them similar
6.3 - In both 4A and this lesson, how did we decide whether the explanatory variables were explain-
ing variation in the outcome variables, even though we were using different visualizations? Why
did we need to use different visualizations?
1.7
7.0 - Data in the News
7.1 - If you are interested in further reading on political leanings and food preferences, check out this
article: https://recipes.howstuffworks.com/do-food-choices-demonstrate-political-preferences.htm
7.2
-
Can
you
tell
a
Trump
fridge
from
a
Biden
fridge?
Try
your
luck
in
the
game in this article: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/27/upshot/biden-trump-poll-
quiz.html?action=click&module=Editors%20Picks&pgtype=Homepage
9
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1. Two seniors, one from each government class are randomly selected to travel to Washington,
D.C. Wes is in a class of 18 students and Maureen is in a class of 20 students. Find the
probability that both Wes and Maureen will be selected. Answer as simplified fraction.
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A company has cost and revenue functions, in dollars, given by C(q) = 6000 + 8g and R(g) = 12g.
(a) Find the cost and revenue if the company produces 500 units. Does the company make a profit? What about 5000 units?
Enter the exact answers without comma separation of digits.
The cost of producing 500 units is $
i
The revenue if the company produces 500 units is $ i
Thus, the company
v a profit.
The cost of producing 5000 units is $
The revenue if the company produces 5000 units is $i
Thus, the company
v a profit.
eTextbook and Media
(b) Find the break-even point.
Enter the exact answer.
The break-even point is i
units.
eTextbook and Media
Which of tbe fellowina illust
break even point aranbically?
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