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1 Combating Imminent Attacks from Al-Qaeda Tarris J. Johnson American Military University HLSS 320 Dr. Jeffrey Gardner 27 June 2021

2 Introduction History dictates that humans advance their cause using extreme violence in the form of terrorism. Terrorist groups aim to wreak havoc on their enemies until they achieve their goals. Security agencies in the United States are constantly looking out because of the threat posed to the country by terrorist organizations. Since the late 20 th century, the country and its allies have faced several attacks and from groups like Al-Qaeda. Combating Imminent Attacks from Al-Qaeda Al-Qaeda is an organization dedicated to eradicating any western influence on Islamic states by bringing America and its partners to their knees. It has forced them to develop intelligence networks to keep these terrorists at bay and disrupt their plans. However, the best way to combat Al-Qaeda is by understanding their evolution and ideologies. It possible through practical data collection efforts and proper analysis methods which aid in predicting imminent attacks. There are also several recommendations on how to capitalize intelligence better to prevent future terrorist attacks. Al-Qaeda is among the most dominant terrorist groups in the world. It is a Sunni Islamist militant group founded in 1988 by Osama bin Laden and other Arab volunteers to defeat the Soviet invaders. After the debacle of the Union of Soviet Socialists Republics, also known as the USSR, in Afghanistan, the organization began supporting Muslim rebellions to restore Arab glory. Its primary purpose was to remove all foreign influences from Muslim countries; hence, the termination of such individuals became sacred to them. They also believe that those against Islamic teachings are Muslim oppressors. Therefore, those nations that reprimand the group’s actions become targets and victims of attacks. Their ideology is to restore current and former Muslim states to their original status under Sharia Laws. As a result, the group is responsible for the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, in the United

3 States and bombings of American embassies in East Africa. These ideologies guide them in their spread of terror until they achieve their goal. Similar to other terrorist groups, Al-Qaeda has some objectives it aims to attain with these attacks. Its goal is to inspire, plan and attack America and its allies as an act of retaliation to their support for infidel governments such as Israel and their involvement in the 1991 Persian Gulf War. Furthermore, they intend to drive western influence away from Islamic lands and establish an Islamic foundation in Southern Asia. They are organized, consisting of functional groups that consult their leader before orchestrating any attack. Al- Qaeda’s funding comes from donations from financial facilitators from the Persian Gulf and some of Osama’s businesses and family fortunes. They mask their contributions to the organization via shell companies and legitimate charities. All these people support crippling the United States and spreading the Muslim faith through radical ways. Therefore, United States adopted various domestic intelligence activities to detect and prevent terrorist attacks. For instance, they use HUMINT as a form of intelligence collection that involves human resources. An agent goes undercover to collect data from Al-Qaeda and feed information to relevant authorities. It is also possible to gather intelligence through signal intelligence, SIGINT. It involves interception of the group’s communication between suspected members and employs physical surveillance to predict their movements. Finally, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) also uses open-source intelligence, OSINT, as an intelligence collection system. They retrieve information from internet platforms, televisions, and newspapers to anticipate that terror groups might leak their plans. Airport surveillance is also critical for this institution; they follow up on any suspicious people entering the country and can flag any person with ill intent. Overall, implementing these efforts is necessary for collecting intelligence on Al-Qaeda and their related activities in the country.

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4 Different institutions are involved in collecting intelligence, such as the DHS, Department of Defense, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), which is the best in the business. It shares the gathered information with the intelligence community and also uses it to solve cases. It mainly uses HUMINT in gathering data from Al-Qaeda; using human resources is their primary purpose in collecting intelligence. Additionally, their main goal is protecting the country against terrorist groups; thus, their role has evolved, and more focus is on intelligence collection rather than arrests. On the other hand, the DHS also gathers and analyzes intelligence to stop terrorist attacks before they commence. Their collection efforts involve the monitoring of communication to detect a charter that would signal an upcoming episode. Intelligence gathering is critical to national security; hence, having all the help available is necessary. Analysis of the gathered intelligence is equally as important. The relevant authorities extract meaning from the information acquired, which involves articulating and reviewing key assumptions to ensure the assessment's basis on suitable premises. However, this strategy has a challenge; it is difficult to identify hidden beliefs. It is also essential to check the quality of the information by checking the credibility of the sources. The information provided should be accurate and reliable since they influence the analytic judgments made. Another strategy is the use of indicators of change for determining when a hypothesis is developing. Moreover, they also aid in decision-making and sober judgment. Overall, the practical intelligence analysis is essential for accurate decision-making. Recommendations Recommendation 1: Complete Adoption of Artificial Intelligence in Gathering Information Homeland Security should seriously consider using Artificial Intelligence to prevent and disrupt the impending terrorist threat. Local law enforcement agencies use it for the

5 social analysis of urban gangs and predicting crimes; hence, the same technology is applicable in counter-terrorism (McKendrick, 2019, pp.8). Therefore, since there is much practice with this technology, it shows it has advanced since its development. Using the existing knowledge on how Al-Qaeda operates, Homeland Security can develop models to predict the location and timing of terrorist attacks (McKendrick, 2019, pp.9). As a result, prediction using Artificial Intelligence provides room for discretion, thus minimizing the population's impact while enhancing the practical application of preventive measures. Besides, Homeland Security should analyze collected data within a robust legal framework to ensure rational innervations get conducted based on the results. Intelligence on the terrorist group will make it easier to implement Artificial Intelligence as a counter-terrorism measure. There are several critical areas in applying intelligence using Artificial Intelligence technology that can help disrupt the threat. Al-Qaeda depends on funds from money laundering; therefore, Artificial Intelligence can help monitor financial institutions and prevent, to some extent, money laundering. Using reinforced machine learning, Homeland Security can monitor unusual financial behavior within the country and use such patterns to predict the activities of these terror groups (Canhoto, 2021, pp,1). Artificial Intelligence systems also applicable to social media sites, and Homeland Security can use them to generate extremist content and understand how they communicate and use the data to lure recruiters trying to create allies within the country in preparation for their attack (Schnader, 2019, pp.72). Such technologies will enhance national security since they have eased access to critical and tactical information. These are channels that terrorists use to organize their attack and monitor the country (McAleenan, 2019, pp.8); hence the government must take advantage of available technology to prevent the incoming attack.

6 Recommendation 2: Improving Inter-Agency Coordination to Strengthen National Security In conjunction with Homeland Security, the Federal government should improve inter-agency operations between local and state law enforcement agencies. They should get enough support to ensure that they have full access and participation in counter-terrorism activities of Homeland Security (Johnson & Hunter, 2017, pp.169). It should immediately reform its policies to accommodate these agencies to handle the current situation effectively. Data from the investigation of the 2013 Boston Marathon bombings show inadequate coordination between security agencies before the attack (Foley, 2016, pp.151). Additionally, failure to share intelligence information led to why law enforcement agencies could not prevent the 9/11 Al-Qaeda attack (Foley, 2016, pp.150). Therefore, to avoid repeating this mistake, they should encourage sharing knowledge and full coordination on operational decisions to strengthen security intelligence on the impending threat. Effective inter-agency operations will ensure tight security and highly disrupt the plans of Al-Qaeda on American soil. Local law enforcement agencies play an essential role in counter-terrorism. They aid in gathering intelligence which is a critical Homeland Security activity. For instance, they do this through community-oriented policing, which involves seeking necessary information from immigrant communities (Goldberg & Christopher, 2019, 115). These are some of the channels Al-Qaeda uses to enter the country. It is possible because of the trust and cohesion they have built with the locals. Combined with the education provided on sporting terrorist activities, these law enforcement agencies can efficiently work with Homeland Security to prevent the coming attack (Comens, 2016, pp.9). Besides, Homeland Security should also support the activities of these agencies by providing them with the necessary technology to facilitate the gathering of data. The Federal government should also fund these activities

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7 since they are expensive (Johnson & Hunter, 2017, pp.168). Overall, preventing and disrupting the imminent terrorist threat will be more accessible by acknowledging the critical role of local and state law enforcement agencies. Recommendation 3: Adjusting Policies involving Radicalization and Civil Liberty Some policies require adjustments to improve the acquisition of intelligence necessary for counter-terrorism. For instance, addressing radicalization will not be helpful at the moment. Instead, the Federal government should change soft and hard forces in combating terrorist groups, especially those fueled by radical ideologies (Benson, 2015, pp. 65). It is an essential reevaluation because counter-terrorism activities based on radicalization will only make the people afraid and live in fear. Hence, they will either refuse to cooperate with the law enforcers or provide unreliable intelligence, which might affect the country negatively. Homeland Security needs to treat all people as equals in acquiring data to build trust and prevent eruptions of panic attacks that might interfere with the established security protocols. Therefore, such policies need re-adjustments to increase the efficiency of national security during this critical time. Policymakers should also look at the issue of privacy during a situation of significant terrorism threats. Research shows that Americans are less willing to accept the reduction of civil liberties, mainly when the danger is domestic (Garcia & Geva, 2016, pp. 39). It creates a challenging environment for law enforcement agencies to collect necessary intelligence. As a result, disrupting the immediate threat will become difficult due to a lack of sufficient information. The law should allow the government to infringe on the citizens' rights of privacy to ensure that they are secure. Additionally, the government should educate the public on the reasons for infringement and the importance of gathering information early to prevent imminent danger. The government should provide evidence on how effective these

8 measures are from the previous operation. Studies show that citizens are likely to support reduced civil liberties when they perceive these policies effectively prevent terrorism (LoCicero, 2015, pp.33; Efrat, 2015, p. 3). Therefore, the limitations of freedom should be on the exception of national security issues. Conclusion Overall, poses a significant threat to America’s national security; hence, security agencies must develop measures to deal with this danger. The terrorist organization’s primary purpose is to destroy the United States and its allies to remove western influence on Islamic nations. They plan to recapture them and restore them under Sharia Laws. After 9/11, America established the DHS, the FBI, and other institutions to gather intelligence and use it to protect the country against terrorist attacks. Furthermore, there developed methods of analyzing the collected information to aid in proper decision-making. Despite these efforts, there are other recommendations necessary for the prevention of an imminent attack. They include; adoption of artificial intelligence for better synthesizing intelligence, improving inter-agency coordination to avoid past mistakes, making the work more manageable, and changing radicalization and civic liberty laws to enhance the efficiency of gathering intelligence. Implementation of these suggestions will improve the intelligence network of the DHS and prevent the upcoming Al-Qaeda attack.

9 References Benson, B. P. (2015). The US counterterrorism strategy: Addressing radical ideologies. ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLLEGE FORT LEAVENWORTH KS. Canhoto, A. I. (2021). Leveraging machine learning in the global fight against money laundering and terrorism financing: An affordances perspective. Journal of business research , 131, 441-452. Comens, C. (2016). Terrorism preparedness: A law enforcement perspective. Efrat, A. (2015). Do human rights violations hinder counterterrorism cooperation? Evidence from the FBI’s deployment abroad. The Review of International Organizations, 10(3), 329-349. Foley, F. (2016). Why inter-agency operations break down: US counterterrorism in comparative perspective. European Journal of International Security, 1(2), 150. Garcia, B. E., & Geva, N. (2016). Security versus liberty in the context of counterterrorism: An experimental approach. Terrorism and Political Violence , 28(1), 30-48. Goldberg, K., & Christopher, K. (2019). Community Oriented Policing: Security in the Domestic Counter Terrorism Environment. Journal of Business and Behavioral Sciences , 31(1), 114-124. Johnson, T. C., & Hunter, R. D. (2017). Changes in homeland security activities since 9/11: an examination of state and local law enforcement agencies’ practices. Police Practice and Research , 18(2), 160-173. LoCicero, A. (2015). Domestic Consequences of US Counter-Terrorism Efforts: Making it Harder to Prevent Homegrown Terrorism. The Open Psychology Journal , 8(1). McAleenan, K. (2019). STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK FOR COUNTERING TERRORISM AND TARGETED VIOLENCE. Department of Homeland Security.

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10 McKendrick, K. (2019). Artificial intelligence prediction and counterterrorism . London: The Royal Institute of International Affairs–Chatham House, 9 Schnader, J. (2019). The Implementation of Artificial Intelligence in Hard and Soft Counterterrorism Efforts on Social Media. Santa Clara High Tech. LJ , 36, 42.

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