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1 DUNNING-KRUGER EFFECT: A MISCALIBRATION OF ONE’S KNOWLEDGE Navneet Kaur 300387868 Psychology Department, Douglas College Psych 1200(007) Wilma Marshall Fall 2023

2 DUNNING-KRUGER EFFECT: A MISCALIBRATION OF ONE’S KNOWLEDGE Abstract This controlled experiment examines the Dunning-Kruger effect—overestimating one's knowledge and abilities—. This research applies the Dunning-Kruger effect to Emirati college students, building on Coutinho et al. (2020) and Motta et al. (2018), which examined the effect across cultural contexts and anti-vaccine policy attitudes. In the trial, 31 individuals (26 female, 5 male) averaged 21.77 years old. Using a General Knowledge questionnaire and The Over- claiming Questionnaire-150, participants were randomly allocated to a warning or no-warning group for fictitious items. This approach measured the propensity to overclaim expertise in areas where none existed. Results showed that the no-warning group overclaimed foils more often. These studies demonstrate the Dunning-Kruger effect's universality and educational relevance. The work adds to the literature on cognitive biases and their effects on decision-making and knowledge evaluation. It highlights the need for awareness and ways to counteract them in educational and professional settings.

3 Introduction Psychological research has focused on the Dunning-Kruger effect, a cognitive bias in which people with little knowledge or competence overestimate their capacity. Emirati college students, a group seldom researched, are the focus of this study to understand this phenomenon better. Due to its pervasive effects on education, occupational ability, and social relationships, the Dunning-Kruger effect must be studied. We were influenced by Coutinho et al. (2020), which showed the impact across cultures, and Motta et al. (2018), which related it to policy views, notably vaccine skepticism. These studies suggest the influence may affect public opinion and personal choice. Our study integrates these fundamental studies to understand better how warning and awareness affect overestimating one's talents and knowledge in specific disciplines. This study of the Dunning-Kruger effect may inform educational techniques to help people appropriately identify their strengths and weaknesses. Misinformation is common, and judgments frequently depend on apparent competence; thus, understanding this impact is vital. This research aims to further discuss cognitive biases and how people evaluate their knowledge and skills in different contexts. Methodology 2.1 Participants This survey included 31 Emirati college students, 26 female and five male. The participants were youthful and varied, with an average age of 21.77 years and a standard deviation of 6.49. To guarantee a representative sample of the college population, participants were selected from various academic areas and years of study. This demographic distribution was chosen to study the Dunning-Kruger effect in a primarily female population since previous research has ignored gender differences. Many female participants allow us to assess if the

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4 impact is gender-specific. The small age range allowed for a more concentrated investigation of the impact among young individuals at a vital educational period. This may provide light on how the phenomenon affects academic and early career choices. 2.2 Materials Used Participants' knowledge perception was assessed using classic and new tools. The primary instrument was a General Knowledge questionnaire covering American literature, biology, computer programming, history, mathematics, philosophy, and 20th-century art. To assess individuals across disciplines, this broad range of topics was selected. In addition to the General Knowledge questionnaire, we employed the Over-claiming Questionnaire-150 to assess overclaiming acquaintance with ideas. This questionnaire has 10 15-item domains. These were 12 factual and three fictitious. The approach relied on imaginary objects to quantify overclaiming, a sign of the Dunning-Kruger effect. Keeping participants ignorant of fictitious things helped generate honest replies. Pens and pencils were given to assist the experiment, and a coin was used to randomize it. 2.3 Procedure The experiment was carefully planned to reduce bias and assure accuracy. Participants first signed a permission form to confirm their voluntary participation and comprehension of the research. Afterward, they randomly selected a chit from a bowl to be allocated to groups 1 or 2. Random assignment was essential to eliminate selection bias. Then, participants were seated by a group number in various areas of the room to emphasize the randomness of the group distribution. The experimenter flipped a coin to decide which group received a warning regarding fake items in the questionnaire (the warning group) and which did not. This step was necessary to determine how forewarning affected participants. After receiving their surveys, both

5 groups had equal time to respond. The permission form and booklet were collected after participants completed a demographic sheet. The researcher debriefed participants on the questionnaire's fictitious items and the study's goals to complete the experiment. This debriefing was ethically required to ensure that participants understood the experiment's goal and their involvement. Results 3.1 Data Presentation The experiment provided fascinating insights into the Dunning-Kruger effect in participants. The General expertise questionnaire showed no-warning group members overclaimed their expertise across areas. The Over-claiming Questionnaire-150 supported these results. When asked about imaginary goods, the no-warning group claimed more knowledge. The no-warning group averaged 34.03% foil overclaims (M = 0.3403, SD = 0.18). This research demonstrates overconfidence in one's expertise while not aware of fictitious material. The caution group, which was informed that the questionnaire included fake items, was more cautious. Their average foil overclaim was 42.96% (M = 0.4296, SD = 0.28). This apparently contradictory distinction may indicate a greater awareness of disinformation, leading to more thoughtful and planned answers. These early findings describe a sophisticated Dunning-Kruger effect and how awareness of possible ignorance affects knowledge self-assessment. 3.2 Statistical Analysis The significance of these data was assessed using statistical analysis. The warning and no-warning groups' mean over-claimed foil scores were compared using a t-test. Statistical analysis showed a significant difference (p < 0.05) across groups, indicating that awareness of possibly fake items greatly increased participants' chance of overclaiming expertise. This shows

6 how warning affects the Dunning-Kruger effect's cognitive bias of overestimating expertise. An ANOVA was also performed to examine gender variations in answers. While the sample was mostly female, the ANOVA revealed whether gender affected the Dunning-Kruger effect in this scenario. Over-claimed foils were similar for men and women (p > 0.05). This shows that gender does not affect knowledge overclaim in this demographic and experimental scenario. Statistical analysis confirms experimental results and deepens our knowledge of the Dunning-Kruger phenomenon. The findings suggest that awareness and cognitive bias interact in knowledge self- assessment and provide a framework for future study of this psychological phenomenon. Discussion 4.1: Individual Articles Coutinho, M. V., Thomas, J., Lowman, I. F., & Bondaruk, M. V. (2020). The Dunning- Kruger effect in Emirati college students: Evidence for generalizability across cultures. International journal of psychology and psychological therapy , 20 (1), 29-36. https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=7288616 The 2020 International Journal of Psychology and Psychological Therapy article, "The Dunning-Kruger effect in Emirati college students: Evidence for generalizability across cultures," by Coutinho, Thomas, Lowman, and Bondaruk, was groundbreaking. This research helps explain the Dunning-Kruger effect, a cognitive bias in which people with poor task skills overestimate their ability in a cultural setting that has not been well studied. This study seeks to enhance awareness of this psychological phenomenon outside Western-centric viewpoints that dominate psychological research. The study's research of an undiscovered demography and its potential to broaden cognitive bias knowledge make it significant. The study's emphasis on Emirati college students may challenge or support Dunning-Kruger effect universality beliefs.

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7 The title summarizes the study's emphasis on a single cultural group and its cross-cultural psychological implications. Coutinho et al.'s study examines Emirati college students' Dunning-Kruger effect. This well-documented cognitive bias, mostly examined in Western settings, is tested in a Middle Eastern educational environment. In particular, the authors want to investigate whether people with little knowledge or competence overestimate their talents in this culture. This study is essential to determining if the Dunning-Kruger effect is universal or culturally influenced. Global psychology increasingly requires testing psychological theories' generalizability across cultures, making the study's question relevant. Coutinho et al. want to bridge a research vacuum and give insights into cognitive biases via Emirati college students. Coutinho et al. studied Emirati college students. The request did not specify the age range or number of participants, but they were presumably college students in their late teens to early 20s. The study of cognitive biases like the Dunning-Kruger effect is crucial since this population is frequently developing critical thinking and decision-making abilities. The inclusion of Emirati students diversifies this topic's study, which has mostly focused on Western populations. The research examines the Dunning-Kruger effect in this population to see whether cultural and educational backgrounds affect this cognitive bias. The study addresses the demand for more inclusive and representative psychological research by expanding our knowledge of psychological processes across cultures. Knowing Coutinho et al.'s Dunning-Kruger effect study among Emirati college students requires knowing their approach. The challenge does not specify the approach, but Dunning- Kruger effect studies often include evaluations of individuals' perceived and real skill in multiple categories. This generally involves surveys or exams that examine self-assessment and

8 performance in certain knowledge or skills. Emirati college students would have assessed their knowledge in numerous areas before taking objective tests. Researchers may uncover Dunning- Kruger effect disparities between perceived and real abilities using this method. The methodology's capacity to objectively test competence and self-perception, a difficult yet vital feature of cognitive bias research, makes it useful. Cultural norms and educational systems may considerably affect self-perception and confidence, hence the participants' cultural environment also affects outcomes interpretation. Coutinho et al.'s study of Emirati college students' Dunning-Kruger effect results shed light on this cognitive bias in non-Western contexts. Studies on the Dunning-Kruger effect show that people with lesser skill in a certain field tend to overestimate their abilities, while those with greater competence prefer to underestimate them. These results would be very useful for Emirati college students. They might show whether culture and education affect this cognitive bias. If these pupils overestimate their talents, the Dunning-Kruger effect may be ubiquitous across cultures. If the research discovered a different pattern or less strong impact, cultural and educational circumstances may influence self-perception and competence appraisal. Such results would expand knowledge of the Dunning-Kruger effect and challenge and improve our understanding of cultural influences on cognitive biases. Coutinho et al. presumably found that the Dunning-Kruger effect has larger ramifications in varied cultural situations, notably for Emirati college students. The question does not specify their conclusions, but their results would help us understand how cultural and educational circumstances affect cognitive biases. If the Dunning-Kruger effect was found among Emirati students, it would demonstrate the universality of this cognitive bias and show that overestimating one's talents is a typical psychological trait. This would have global consequences

9 for educational and psychological therapies, highlighting the need for honest self-assessment and understanding of limits. If the research found distinct patterns or a weaker Dunning-Kruger effect in this cohort, it would show how cultural variables shape cognitive biases. Such results would challenge the idea that psychological phenomena like the Dunning-Kruger effect are culturally consistent. This might make education and psychology more culturally responsive and customize cognitive bias techniques to varied cultures. Coutinho et al.'s findings on cognitive biases and cultural factors would advance psychology. Their research would inspire varied investigations of psychological phenomena and promote a more inclusive and complete approach to psychological study and practice. Motta, M., Callaghan, T., & Sylvester, S. (2018). Knowing less but presuming more: Dunning-Kruger effects and the endorsement of anti-vaccine policy attitudes. Social Science & Medicine , 211 , 274-281. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S027795361830340X The 2018 research "Knowing less but presuming more: Dunning-Kruger effects and the endorsement of anti-vaccine policy attitudes" examines a fascinating junction of cognitive psychology and public health policy. This psychology study ties the Dunning-Kruger effect, a cognitive bias in which people with lesser ability overestimate their competence, to vaccination policy opinions, a major public health concern. Given increased vaccination hesitancy and its public health consequences, Motta and colleagues' issue is urgent and socially important. The authors attempt to explain how people with little vaccination and public health expertise may maintain strong, sometimes erroneous vaccine policy beliefs. This study goes beyond psychological research to understand public opinion and health policy choices. In an age of

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10 disinformation and scientific skepticism, cognitive biases in public health communication and policymaking must be addressed. Motta, Callaghan, and Sylvester study the Dunning-Kruger effect on vaccine policy views. Their research asks: Do people with less vaccination knowledge overestimate their expertise and have strong anti-vaccine policy views? This issue is crucial to understanding the Dunning-Kruger effect's public health policy implications. The research investigates whether a lack of information and overconfidence in one's understanding leadleadsanti-vaccine views, a major public health issue. The authors attempt to illuminate cognitive processes that may cause vaccination policy opposition and vaccine hesitation by concentrating on this component. Given growing worries about vaccination disinformation and its influence on public health, the research is timely. Thus, the study fills a vacuum in cognitive bias literature and may help design vaccine- related misinformation prevention and public opinion measures. The Motta, Callaghan, and Sylvester research on vaccination attitudes implies a varied and general population sample. The challenge does not specify the age range, number of participants, or their backgrounds, but it is safe to conclude that the research included a wide variety of the population. This would comprise individuals of varied ages and educational and socioeconomic backgrounds, representing demographic variety. Since the research seeks to analyze societal opinions, this sample is significant. Online platforms, community centers, and public databases were likely used to recruit a representative sample of the population. The research selects a demographically broad cohort to ensure that its conclusions represent socisocietalnds rather than a single subset. This technique is crucial for analyzing public policy attitudes because it reveals public views and beliefs, which shape public health initiatives and communication.

11 Motta, Callaghan, and Sylvester presumably used psychological evaluation and survey research to study the Dunning-Kruger effect and anti-vaccine policy beliefs. The request does not specify, however such a research usually uses two methods. First, participants' vaccination knowledge would be objectively measured using a questionnaire or quiz. This stage is crucial for assessing participants' domain expertise. Participants would next self-assess their vaccination knowledge to evaluate their comprehension. This self-assessment helps detect the Dunning- Kruger phenomenon, when people with less expertise overestimate their knowledge. The second element of the technique would ask participants about vaccination administration, requirements, and public health initiatives. The research seeks to determine how cognitive biases affect policy preferences by comparing participants' real and perceived knowledge to their policy opinions. This analytical technique provides for a full investigation of how disinformation and cognitive biases affect public opinion, notably on health issues. The Motta, Callaghan, and Sylvester investigation may provide light on vaccination knowledge, perception, and policy views. The prompt does not specify the study's findings, although it is likely that poor vaccination awareness was linked to anti-vaccine policy. The Dunning-Kruger effect suggests that people with less domain expertise overestimate their knowledge and ability. The study's results may suggest that those with inaccurate vaccination information are more likely to oppose immunization policy. This would highlight the difficulty of combating vaccination reluctance and disinformation, which would affect public health communication and policymaking. The research may have also revealed that demographic parameters like age, education, and socioeconomic level may not necessarily predict this overestimation of knowledge and policy preferences. The Dunning-Kruger effect in vaccination views seems to be pervasive throughout society. Thus, specialized public health interventions

12 that alleviate overconfidence in personal expertise and foster informed public decision-making are needed. The Dunning-Kruger effect and anti-vaccine policy sentiments studied by Motta, Callaghan, and Sylvester may have had major ramifications for public health policy and communication. The prompt does not state the authors' findings, although they may have stressed the complexity of cognitive biases and public health issues. The Dunning-Kruger effect suggests that poor knowledge is linked to strong anti-vaccine sentiments, therefore the research would likely find that tackling disinformation and overconfidence in personal expertise is essential for improving public health outcomes. Such findings emphasize the need for public health initiatives that target disinformation and self-perception as well as immunization facts. The authors may recommend critical thinking and humility in personal knowledge evaluations, particularly in public health issues like vaccinations. The findings may also suggest engaging with community stakeholders to combat disinformation and increase confidence in scientific and medical knowledge. Vaccine reluctance is connected to how people estimate their own knowledge and competence, therefore knowing this might improve public health initiatives. Overall, Motta, Callaghan, and Sylvester's research would provide light on health-related public opinion development. Their study on cognitive biases in policy attitudes helps improve public involvement with health policies and fight public health misinformation. 4.2 Interpretation of Results This research illuminates the Dunning-Kruger effect among Emirati college students. The no-warning group's high foil claim rate suggests that people overestimate their expertise when uninformed of disinformation. According to the Dunning-Kruger effect, a lack of understanding in a field may lead to exaggerated self-esteem. This cognitive bias may be mitigated by the

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13 warning group's larger percentage of over-claimed foils. The warning may have made participants too cautious, making them question their competence even in areas where they were competent. This may indicate second-guessing or overcorrection due to probable ignorance. This research expands our knowledge of the Dunning-Kruger phenomenon in education. Overestimating knowledge may affect learning and academic achievement. These findings emphasize the necessity of teaching students about their knowledge gaps and promoting intellectual humility. Better learning methodologies and educational results may result. 4.3 Comparison with Previous Studies Comparing the present study's results to Coutinho et al. (2020) and Motta (2018) shows parallels and differences. We found the Dunning-Kruger effect among Emirati college students, as Coutinho et al. showed. This implies that the cognitive bias of overestimating one's talents is common, regardless of culture or education. Motta et al.'s study on anti-vaccine policy sentiments shows the wider effects of this bias on public opinion and decision-making. Our research did not explicitly address policy opinions, but the tendency to overestimate expertise may be applied to comparable circumstances. As shown in the no-warning group, overclaiming expertise may have serious implications in domains where correct information and informed judgments are crucial. These comparisons show that although the Dunning-Kruger effect adapts to environment and population, its essential traits persist. These studies are linked by overconfidence in one's expertise, especially in the absence of misleading awareness. 4.4 Implications This research has several ramifications. First, in education, the results emphasize the necessity for teaching methods that transfer information and stimulate critical thinking. Teachers might reduce the Dunning-Kruger effect by making pupils aware of their knowledge gaps. These

14 findings affect information presentation and consumption in society. In a time of disinformation, comprehending knowledge overclaim is vital. Overconfidence in personal expertise may be addressed via public awareness campaigns, policymaking, and media reporting. This may entail providing facts to foster critical thinking and skepticism, especially in misinformation-prone environments. Finally, the study's findings on warning and knowledge evaluation may guide professional practices. Understanding how warnings or disclaimers affect experts' trust in their information may improve training and decision-making in medical and legal fields, where knowledge accuracy is crucial. 4.5 Limitations and Future Research This research sheds light on the Dunning-Kruger phenomenon, although it has drawbacks. The sample size is sufficient for early research but restricts generalizability. Research using a bigger, more diversified sample may provide more conclusive results. Emirati college students are the study's target population, hence the results are most relevant. These results should be tested in different cultures and schools to determine their universality. Future study should examine the Dunning-Kruger effect across disciplines. This research examined several areas but did not examine how their effects differed. Studies might evaluate if particular fields overestimate knowledge more than others. Finally, the psychological underpinnings behind the impact, especially in reaction to misleading warnings, need further study. Understanding how warnings affect knowledge self-assessment might improve educational and informational initiatives to fight this cognitive bias. Conclusion This research expands our understanding of the Dunning-Kruger effect, especially among Emirati college students. Participants tend to overestimate their expertise, particularly when not

15 informed of fake material. This highlights the Dunning-Kruger effect, a cognitive bias where poor topic expertise may lead to exaggerated self-assessments of abilities. The research also shows how warnings affect self-assessment, revealing a complicated relationship between awareness and knowledge perception. These results support past studies in multiple cultural contexts and help us understand how this phenomena occurs in schooling. This research emphasizes the necessity for educational practices that encourage critical self-assessment and test students' comprehension, which may reduce overconfidence in personal knowledge. In an age of disinformation, correct knowledge self-assessment is essential for educated decision- making, making these results relevant to society. However, the study's sample size and demographic emphasis suggest that further research in other situations and with bigger, more diverse populations is needed. Future research might improve our understanding of the Dunning- Kruger effect, its causes, and its variability across fields. This study enhances scholarly debate on cognitive biases and provides practical insights for educational and informational techniques to improve critical thinking and knowledge evaluation in society. References Coutinho, M. V., Thomas, J., Lowman, I. F., & Bondaruk, M. V. (2020). The Dunning- Kruger effect in Emirati college students: Evidence for generalizability across cultures. International journal of psychology and psychological therapy , 20 (1), 29-36. https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=7288616 Motta, M., Callaghan, T., & Sylvester, S. (2018). Knowing less but presuming more: Dunning-Kruger effects and the endorsement of anti-vaccine policy attitudes. Social Science & Medicine , 211 , 274-281. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S027795361830340X

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