Synergy-Disc-Project-Part-1
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Synergy Disc Replacement Inc.
Project B: Early Stage Company - Part I
Andrew Rogers Nicholas Dodich Oliver Blatt 1
Synergy Disc Replacement Inc.
I.
Introduction
Synergy Disc (“
SD
”) is a medical apparatus manufacturer assembling replacement discs for the cervical
spine counteracting Degenerative Disc Disease (“
DDD
”), correcting misalignment and restoring motion
1
. II.
Target Entry Sweet Spot SD’s Total Addressable Market is estimated as all orthopaedic surgeons globally, while the Service
Addressable Market includes orthopaedic surgeons practicing within countries outlined in Section IV
below. SD’s Target Market Segment is spine-focused orthopaedic surgeons, with the “Sweet Spot” of
spine-focused orthopaedic surgeons willing to adopt this innovative device.
III.
Competitive Analysis
Key Customer Buying Criteria
1
SD’s main competitive advantages is being the only DDD replacement disc that simultaneously corrects
the patient’s spinal alignment and range of motion while offering multi-level stability as the disc fits into
multiple levels of the neck
1
. A 2018 study found that 18% of computer professionals had multi-level
degenerative disc disease
2
, displaying the importance of the multi-level stability criterion. Although it
affects a large portion of people prone to DDD, the multi-level DDD market is essentially untapped by
other disc-replacement competitors, promoting SD’s viability
1
. Another distinction for SD is the same-day
recovery timeline, allowing patients to leave the hospital the same day they arrive for surgery
1
. Spinal
surgeons can conduct more surgeries and hospitals can admit a higher number of patients. IV.
Sales Forecast Model
The revenue projection methodology was replicated across each country whereby orthopaedic surgeons
as a percentage of total population was first identified and then broken down even further to arrive at the
number of surgeons specializing in spine-related procedures. This figure was then multiplied by an SD
adoption rate to arrive at the number of surgeons who would use this disc. The number of units
demanded annually was then calculated by multiplying the number or surgeries performed per surgeon by
the total number of spine surgeons. The price per unit was then accounted for to arrive at annual sales.
2
Company
Product
Corrects Alignment
Multi-Level Stability
Motion
Same Day Recovery
Criteria Tally
SDRI
Synergy Disc
4/4
Medtronic
Prestige LP
1/4
Zimmer
Mobi C
1/4
Centinel
Prodisc
1/4
Orthofix
M6
1/4
FH Ortho
ESP
1/4
Axiomed
Freedom
1/4
Simplify Medical
Simplify 1/4
Sales Forecast Model
3
all $ values stated in CAD unless stated otherwise
Year Beginning
Jan-2020
Jan-2021
Jan-2022
Year End
Dec-2020
Dec-2021
Dec-2022
Year
2020
2021
2022
Unit Price
Price per Unit
1
[$]
$1,400.0
$1,300.0
$1,300.0
Synergy Disc Demand
Spine-Focused Orthopaedic Surgeons
3,4,5
Canada
[#]
156
158
159
Australia
[#]
149
151
152
Germany
[#]
777
776
776
United Kingdom
[#]
608
611
613
Spain
[#]
785
785
784
Switzerland
[#]
107
107
108
Mexico
[#]
1,262
1,274
1,286
Surgeon Adoption Rate
6
Canada
[%]
0.8%
1.0%
1.3%
Australia
[%]
0.8%
1.0%
1.3%
Germany
[%]
0.8%
1.0%
1.3%
United Kingdom
[%]
0.8%
1.0%
1.3%
Spain
[%]
0.5%
0.8%
1.0%
Switzerland
[%]
0.5%
0.8%
1.0%
Mexico
[%]
0.5%
0.8%
1.0%
Surgeons Using Synergy Disc
Canada
[#]
1
2
2
Australia
[#]
1
2
2
Germany
[#]
6
8
10
United Kingdom
[#]
5
6
8
Spain
[#]
4
6
8
Switzerland
[#]
1
1
1
Mexico
[#]
6
10
13
Total Surgeons Using Synergy Disc
23
33
43
Spine Surgeries Performed Annually / Surgeon
4
[#]
43
43
43
Units Demanded
1,008
1,428
1,851
Total Revenue
[$]
$1,411,612
$1,855,897
$2,405,892
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V.
Justification of Key Assumptions of Sales Forecast Model
The model includes a sales forecast for four countries with existing operations; Canada, Australia,
Germany and the United Kingdom and three new countries that NuVasive will begin distributing to; Spain,
Switzerland and Mexico
1
. Forecasting methods were replicated across all countries; therefore, Canada’s
revenue calculation will act as an example. First, the number of orthopaedic surgeons is calculated as a percentage of the country’s population.
Specific to Canada, 3.7 surgeons per 100,000 people
3
, result in an estimate of 1,391 orthopaedic
surgeons.
Next, we identified the number of spine-specialists by dividing the 43 spinal fusions performed each year
by orthopaedic surgeons
4
, by the number of surgeries completed by orthopaedic surgeons in a year
(384)
5
. This allowed an estimate of roughly 11.2% of orthopaedic surgeons are spinal specialists,
amounting to 156 Canadian specialists in 2020. Further, according to studies, new medical devices are adopted at nearly 2.5% at the peak of the
innovators stage
6
. Since SD has not fully gone to market and is still in the FDA testing stage
1
, it would be
reasonable to assume an exponentially lower rate starting at 0.75% for second-year operations in a
country. Once SD has completed its trials and goes to market, the adoption rate will increase by 50 BPS
each year, attributable to a successful sales effort of distributors. The adoption rate for NuVasive entering
new countries will start at 0.50% given the products first-year in these regions.
Finally, the annual surgical capacity of a spinal surgeon, 43
4
, is held constant across all countries. This
will dictate the total quantity of discs demanded when multiplied by the number of spinal surgeons
adopting the product. With 1,005 total units demanded in year 1 at a price outlined in the management
forecast of $1,400/unit ($1,300/unit thereafter)
1
, total revenue is ~$1.4mm.
4
Works Cited
1
(2019, November). Retrieved January 28, 2020, from https://vimeo.com/374495717
2
Amuthan, B., & Amuthan, K. (2018). Multi-Level Disc Degeneration in Young Individuals - A Prospective MRI Study of 100 Computer Professionals.
ECronicon Open Access
, 1–1. Retrieved from https://www.ecronicon.com/ecor/pdf/ECOR-09-00260.pdf
3
Healio. (2008, June 1). Present, future orthopedic care models in Canada focus on increasing efficiency. Retrieved from https://www.healio.com/orthopedics/business-of-orthopedics/news/print/orthopedics-
today/{d5a00008-8cca-4910-aea6-a577e2a14082}/present-future-orthopedic-care-models-in-canada-
focus-on-increasing-efficiency
4
Spinal Fusion Surgery: Not Often Necessary: Bubalo Law PLC. (2019, October 23). Retrieved from https://beckerlaw.com/blog/spinal-fusion-surgery-rise-often-necessary/?fbclid=IwAR3p1CsKs-
sylaB3g4CnLRb9uoP3IpgO_ItL5zK3KCzuGEmHqLjygobDBhA
5
Brown, M., & Kurtz, R. (n.d.). 10 Interesting Statistics and Facts About Orthopedic Practices. Retrieved from https://www.beckersasc.com/news-analysis/10-interesting-statistics-and-facts-about-orthopedic-
practices.html?fbclid=IwAR2YJL3XEl8ZlxQW6kljdrtXqyHlsGey39BwQocVwE8-1t4S67m69U00UeY
6
Barriers to Innovation in the Field of Medical Devices. (2010).
Medical Devices: Managing the MisMatch
,
10
(6), 5–7. Retrieved from https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/70457/WHO_HSS_EHT_DIM_10.6_eng.pdf;jsessionid=F
F6AAFC7689786D2DE86A7AD704C2FA7?sequence=1
Orthopaedic Surgeons as a Percentage of Population Works Cited
European Countries:
Madanat, R., Makinen, T. J., Ryan, D., Huri, G., Paschos, N., & Vide, J. (2016). The Current State of Orthopaedic Residency in Europe.
Suomen Ortopedia Ja Traumatologia
,
39
, 1–5. Retrieved from https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/6bce/0d8d1c3be813e526b5b7b56e6fa60be6845a.pdf?
fbclid=IwAR2TBKnU2xJ4TQ5_Bw_Y5ps59xRlt8fUnvCt7RJ54XKwzO68AEyTiuQFHE8
Canada: Healio. (2008, June 1). Present, future orthopedic care models in Canada focus on increasing efficiency. Retrieved from https://www.healio.com/orthopedics/business-of-orthopedics/news/print/orthopedics-
today/{d5a00008-8cca-4910-aea6-a577e2a14082}/present-future-orthopedic-care-models-in-canada-
focus-on-increasing-efficiency
Australia: (2016).
Orthopaedic Surgery 2016 FactSheet
, 1–2. Retrieved from https://hwd.health.gov.au/webapi/customer/documents/factsheets/2016/Orthopaedic surgery.pdf
Mexico:
Healio. (2008, June 1). Present, future orthopedic care models in Canada focus on increasing efficiency. Retrieved from https://www.healio.com/orthopedics/business-of-orthopedics/news/print/orthopedics-
today/{d5a00008-8cca-4910-aea6-a577e2a14082}/present-future-orthopedic-care-models-in-canada-
focus-on-increasing-efficiency
Hellweg, K. (2020, January 8). How Many Orthopedic Surgeons are in the US? Retrieved from https://blog.definitivehc.com/how-many-orthopedic-surgeons-in-us
5
Population Works Cited
UK:
Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-kingdom/2025/
Spain:
Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.populationpyramid.net/spain/2025/
Switzerland:
Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.populationpyramid.net/switzerland/2025/
Germany:
Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2025/
Canada:
Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.populationpyramid.net/canada/2025/
Mexico:
Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.populationpyramid.net/mexico/2025/
Australia:
Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.populationpyramid.net/australia/2025/
Croatia:
Croatia Public & Private Holidays in 2020 (Full List). (2020, January 5). Retrieved from https://www.edarabia.com/croatia/public-holidays/
Denmark:
Map Of Denmark. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.countrycodeguide.com/worldmap/denmark
Finland: Rapo, M. (n.d.). Statistics Finland. Retrieved from https://www.stat.fi/til/vaerak/2018/vaerak_2018_2019-
03-29_tie_001_en.html
France:
Statista Research Department. (2019, November 6). Population in France by age group 2019. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/464032/distribution-population-age-group-france/
Greece:
Plecher, H. (2019, December 4). Greece - total population 2014-2024. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/263744/total-population-of-greece/
6
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Ireland:
World Bank - Development Indicators (WDI) - 2017 - IDB Aggregates - Islamic Development Bank - Data Portal. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://data.isdb.org/pxfdrcg/world-bank-development-indicators-wdi-2017-
idb-aggregates?tsId=1054720
Kosovo:
(n.d.). Retrieved from http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/kosovo-population/
Malta:
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population/
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Slovakia:
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population/
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population/
Sweden:
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area/population/population-composition/population-statistics/
Turkey:
Population, total. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL
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