Demand MGMT Forecasting Denosumab Case Analysis

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Marshall University *

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MGT-674

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Marketing

Date

Feb 20, 2024

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docx

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Uploaded by Cody75

Cody Schutte Demand MGMT Forecasting Denosumab Case Analysis This case looks at an important business task: forecasting a new product. The product is one of Amgen's most important new products: Denosumab. While a quick reading may lead you to believe that the case is fairly easy, the challenges of forecasting quickly become apparent: every forecast depends on some critical assumptions, and the answer can vary dramatically. Questions to consider:  Forecast: How would you go about forecasting the product? (Hint: you don't need to actually do it; just describe how you would do it in general)  Assumptions: Please describe the assumptions you would use to come up with a forecast for the overall market for the drug.  How would you decide what Market Share Denosumab would have in each market? Please note that for full credit on this assignment, you are required to post an answer addressing the questions above first. Once you post, you will be able to see everyone else's posts. Ideally, you should have your original post by the middle of the week, which gives you ample time to constructively respond to at least one of your classmate's post and post replies to all comments you receive on your posts. I would forecast the product through market research and moving average. Market research would begin in forecasting the product. This is important when forecasting Amgen’s newest product Denosumab. The information garnered from the research will allow Amgen to mitigate risk while collecting detailed information about other competitors and their products. Through this research, Amgen can utilize the competitor’s information for future product development and product marketability. The moving average will be used as well because it allows Amgen to forecast future trends based solely on relative data of past months, quarters, years, etc. Market research assumptions will be based on the audience Amgen will target and how they will distribute their product to the consumer. The assumption of age range, health problems, distributed locations, etc. will be used in market research and moving average. Moving average assumption is based on recent trends that have occurred and predicting the market for potential future trends. One of the best ways to predict future trends is by isolating recent trends to get a sense of what the market availability may end up being. Trends will provide the company a competitive advantage of where to market the drug, the tendency of the clientele, and how the product compare to the competition, if any, in various categories such as side effects, chemical makeup of the drug, price, etc. When deciding what market share Denosumab would have in each market, you would first look at the statistical analysis done through market research and moving average. After looking at the data, you can make a well-informed decision about where the market the drug and distribute the drug. Once the data information on marketing and distribution is analyzed, looking at where regionally the drug would be most beneficial to the company to help people while making a profit will ultimately decide how much Denosumab’s market share will be.

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