Grit and Grind
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University of Michigan *
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Management
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Feb 20, 2024
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docx
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Grit and Grind
When I was in middle school, I clearly remember that after Stephen Curry won his first championship, the three-pointer suddenly became popular. Everyone wanted to make three-
point shots because scoring three points is worth more than two. Over the years, the NBA has seen a significant increase in three-point shooting and accuracy. In the early days, teams rarely used the three-point shot, but today it has become an important part of basketball play. As you can see from the graph, teams have begun to attempt more three-pointers each season since the 2000s. Players have also become more adept at shooting three-pointers, as evidenced by the rising success rate. This shift changed the game and made outside shooting an essential skill for teams to win.
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Evolution of NBA Three-Point Shooting: Trends in Attempts and Accuracy (1979-
2021)
Sum of 3PA
Sum of 3P
Average of 3P%
Seasons (1979-2021)
3-Point Shots
3P%
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats_per_game.html
As a huge Memphis Grizzlies fan, the growing popularity of the three-point shot signaled the end of our "Grit and Grind" era. From the 2010 through 2016 seasons, our team, led by Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol, and Tony Allen, played a much different style of basketball than today’s game. Our tactics emphasized defense - in the playoffs, we routinely limited our opponents to 80 points or less. With the exception of Mike Conley and Shane Battier, we rarely shoot three-
pointers. Our offensive strategy revolved around Randolph and Gasol, focusing our offense in the paint area. However, after the Golden State Warriors won the championship, the Grizzlies decided to rebuild the team due to injuries and an aging roster. The 2016-2017 season was a pivotal moment for the Memphis Grizzlies, marking the beginning of a major rebuild and shift in
style of play. This change is visually captured in the chart provided, which shows that the Grizzlies’ average number of three-point attempts per season has increased significantly since this period. As can be seen in the chart, prior to the 2016-2017 season, the Grizzlies maintained a more traditional, interior-focused style of play with fewer three-point attempts. However, after 2016, there was a significant upward trend in three-point attempts, reflecting the Grizzlies’
adaptation to the league-wide embrace of the three-point play, fitting with a new era of basketball in which the Grizzlies are scoring points from the perimeter first.
2001-2002
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Memphis Grizzlies: Average Three-Point Attempts per Season(2001-2023)
Season Years
Average Three-Point Attempts per Season
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats_per_game.html
Additionally, this chart shows the Memphis Grizzlies’ field goal percentage by season from 2001 through 2023.The Grizzlies saw a significant increase in points per game around the 2019-
2020 season, which coincided with the Grizzlies’ recruitment of Ja Morant, who brought a new energy to the team. Despite Morant’s average three-point shooting, his fast-paced style of play has created more opportunities for his teammates to shoot from beyond the arc. This change in strategy is reflected in an increase in points per game, suggesting that the team has adapted to a more three-point-centered style of play, which is consistent with the general trend in the NBA.
2001-2
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2002-2003
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2015-2016
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Memphis Grizzlies Points Scored Per Game Over Seasons (2001-2023)
Seasons
Average Points Per Game
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats_per_game.html
The table below analyzes in detail the Memphis Grizzlies’ shooting efficiency and expected scoring by shot type for the 2022-2023 season. Through the use of the Solver, I determined the optimal shot distribution, which coincided with an expected total of 116.9 points for the season.
The data emphasizes the efficacy of the three-point shot in modern basketball play, as evidenced by the fact that the expected points from three-point attempts are substantial, even if the success rate is low compared to two-point attempts. By using Solver, I develop the most
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effective scoring strategy that ensures that each shot contributes the most to the total points scored.
Shot
Shot Value
Make %
EV/Shot
Number of Shots
Expected Points
0-3 FT 2
2
0.688
1.376
4
5.504
3-10 FT 2
2
0.446
0.892
0
0
10-16 FT 2
2
0.447
0.894
8
7.152
16 FT - 3P 2
2
0.386
0.772
15
11.58
3P
3
0.351
1.053
88
92.664
Total Points:
116.9
Memphis Grizzlies Shooting Efficiency and Expected Points by Shot Type (2022-2023 Season)
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2023.html
Luke Kennard; 3.1; 16%
Desmond Bane; 2.9; 15%
Dillon Brooks; 2; 10%
Jaren Jack-
son Jr.; 1.6; 8%
Others; 10.1; 51%
Memphis Grizzlies Players' Three-Point Contributions Per Game (2022-2023 Season)
Luke Kennard
Desmond Bane
Dillon Brooks
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Others
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MEM/2023.html
In conclusion, the pie chart for the 2022-2023 season illustrates how the Memphis Grizzlies’ strategy has evolved to become more three-point-centric. Key player acquisitions and draft picks
like Luke Kennard (a sharpshooter who contributes 16% of the team’s three-point attempts) and
Desmond Bain (who contributes 15% of the team’s three-point attempts) have played a major role in this shift. These players, along with the current roster, have expanded the Grizzlies’ offensive capabilities, showing the Grizzlies’ successful transition to a modern perimeter-based
game that complements Ja Morant’s dynamic style of play and the high-paced offense he commands.
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