Grit and Grind

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University of Michigan *

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Feb 20, 2024

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Grit and Grind When I was in middle school, I clearly remember that after Stephen Curry won his first championship, the three-pointer suddenly became popular. Everyone wanted to make three- point shots because scoring three points is worth more than two. Over the years, the NBA has seen a significant increase in three-point shooting and accuracy. In the early days, teams rarely used the three-point shot, but today it has become an important part of basketball play. As you can see from the graph, teams have begun to attempt more three-pointers each season since the 2000s. Players have also become more adept at shooting three-pointers, as evidenced by the rising success rate. This shift changed the game and made outside shooting an essential skill for teams to win. 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 Evolution of NBA Three-Point Shooting: Trends in Attempts and Accuracy (1979- 2021) Sum of 3PA Sum of 3P Average of 3P% Seasons (1979-2021) 3-Point Shots 3P% https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats_per_game.html As a huge Memphis Grizzlies fan, the growing popularity of the three-point shot signaled the end of our "Grit and Grind" era. From the 2010 through 2016 seasons, our team, led by Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol, and Tony Allen, played a much different style of basketball than today’s game. Our tactics emphasized defense - in the playoffs, we routinely limited our opponents to 80 points or less. With the exception of Mike Conley and Shane Battier, we rarely shoot three-
pointers. Our offensive strategy revolved around Randolph and Gasol, focusing our offense in the paint area. However, after the Golden State Warriors won the championship, the Grizzlies decided to rebuild the team due to injuries and an aging roster. The 2016-2017 season was a pivotal moment for the Memphis Grizzlies, marking the beginning of a major rebuild and shift in style of play. This change is visually captured in the chart provided, which shows that the Grizzlies’ average number of three-point attempts per season has increased significantly since this period. As can be seen in the chart, prior to the 2016-2017 season, the Grizzlies maintained a more traditional, interior-focused style of play with fewer three-point attempts. However, after 2016, there was a significant upward trend in three-point attempts, reflecting the Grizzlies’ adaptation to the league-wide embrace of the three-point play, fitting with a new era of basketball in which the Grizzlies are scoring points from the perimeter first. 2001-2002 2002-2 003 2003-2004 2004-2 005 2005-2 006 2006-2007 2007-2 008 2008-2 009 2009-2010 2010-2 011 2011-2012 2012-2 013 2013-2014 2014-2 015 2015-2 016 2016-2017 2017-2 018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2 021 2021-2022 2022-2 023 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1096 1279 1314 1486 1578 1362 1779 1106 1020 926 849 1107 1147 1246 1521 21692152 2368 2297 2258 2679 2807 Memphis Grizzlies: Average Three-Point Attempts per Season(2001-2023) Season Years Average Three-Point Attempts per Season https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats_per_game.html
Additionally, this chart shows the Memphis Grizzlies’ field goal percentage by season from 2001 through 2023.The Grizzlies saw a significant increase in points per game around the 2019- 2020 season, which coincided with the Grizzlies’ recruitment of Ja Morant, who brought a new energy to the team. Despite Morant’s average three-point shooting, his fast-paced style of play has created more opportunities for his teammates to shoot from beyond the arc. This change in strategy is reflected in an increase in points per game, suggesting that the team has adapted to a more three-point-centered style of play, which is consistent with the general trend in the NBA. 2001-2 002 2002-2003 2003-2 004 2004-2 005 2005-2 006 2006-2 007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2 012 2012-2 013 2013-2 014 2014-2 015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2 020 2020-2 021 2021-2 022 2022-2 023 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 Memphis Grizzlies Points Scored Per Game Over Seasons (2001-2023) Seasons Average Points Per Game https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats_per_game.html The table below analyzes in detail the Memphis Grizzlies’ shooting efficiency and expected scoring by shot type for the 2022-2023 season. Through the use of the Solver, I determined the optimal shot distribution, which coincided with an expected total of 116.9 points for the season. The data emphasizes the efficacy of the three-point shot in modern basketball play, as evidenced by the fact that the expected points from three-point attempts are substantial, even if the success rate is low compared to two-point attempts. By using Solver, I develop the most
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effective scoring strategy that ensures that each shot contributes the most to the total points scored. Shot Shot Value Make % EV/Shot Number of Shots Expected Points 0-3 FT 2 2 0.688 1.376 4 5.504 3-10 FT 2 2 0.446 0.892 0 0 10-16 FT 2 2 0.447 0.894 8 7.152 16 FT - 3P 2 2 0.386 0.772 15 11.58 3P 3 0.351 1.053 88 92.664 Total Points: 116.9 Memphis Grizzlies Shooting Efficiency and Expected Points by Shot Type (2022-2023 Season) https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2023.html Luke Kennard; 3.1; 16% Desmond Bane; 2.9; 15% Dillon Brooks; 2; 10% Jaren Jack- son Jr.; 1.6; 8% Others; 10.1; 51% Memphis Grizzlies Players' Three-Point Contributions Per Game (2022-2023 Season) Luke Kennard Desmond Bane Dillon Brooks Jaren Jackson Jr. Others https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MEM/2023.html In conclusion, the pie chart for the 2022-2023 season illustrates how the Memphis Grizzlies’ strategy has evolved to become more three-point-centric. Key player acquisitions and draft picks like Luke Kennard (a sharpshooter who contributes 16% of the team’s three-point attempts) and Desmond Bain (who contributes 15% of the team’s three-point attempts) have played a major role in this shift. These players, along with the current roster, have expanded the Grizzlies’ offensive capabilities, showing the Grizzlies’ successful transition to a modern perimeter-based
game that complements Ja Morant’s dynamic style of play and the high-paced offense he commands.