CJ-675 Milestone One
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5-1 Final Project Milestone One
Lawsel Flowers
Department of Criminal Justice, Southern New Hampshire University
CJ-675: Data Driven Decisions in CJ
Dr. Richard Bistine
October 17, 2023
I. Introduction
As leader of the Bay St. Louis, MS. Police Department, it has become apparent that other
criminal justice leaders have also grappled with overcoming challenges related to making
informed decisions on how best to lead their agencies and serve their communities in light of the
current crime trends and statistical data indicating a need for an innovative approach to respond
effectively to these challenges before one problem creates another problem, and so on. However,
in addition to confronting budgetary constraints which limit the range of viable solutions
available to address these issues, this agency, like many others, must also contend with the
repercussions and challenges caused by a dwindling police force.
According to the current data which highlights the issues mentioned above, this agency’s
officer retention rate increased slightly from 25 officers employed in 2009, to 42 officers
employed in 2012, and then saw a gradual yearly decrease to just 22 officers employed in 2016.
Since this department’s state funding data for the year 2016 has not been released yet, which
may, or may not include additional funding to hire more officers, based on the current data
indicating a downward trend in the yearly number of officers retained by this agency, it is highly
probable that this agency will downsize its staff again. In an effort to mitigate and/or eliminate
the repercussions and challenges caused by a dwindling police force, the purpose of this paper
will be to analyze the current data from this, and other agencies to identify the most effective
evidence-based solutions implemented by other law enforcement leaders responding to the
repercussions and challenges associated with a reduced police force.
II. Theory and Methods
Criminology Theories
Strain Theory
Strain theory, particularly Robert K. Merton’s adaptation of it, could help to understand
the challenges faced by the Bay St. Louis Police Department and other law enforcement leaders
grappling with the repercussions and challenges of a dwindling police force. This theory could
further help to explain the challenges related to making informed decisions and the need for
innovative approaches in response to crime trends. The increasing crime trends and budgetary
constraints represent strain in the system, and the dwindling police force could lead to anomie,
where individuals may engage in deviant behavior when they are unable to achieve success
through conventional means (Nickerson, C., 2023).
Routine Activities Theory
Routine activity theory could provide insight into the challenges related to crime trends
that may stem from a dwindling police force. “Routine activity theory, developed by Cohen and
Felson, revolves around three things: a “potential offender, a suitable target, and the absence of a
capable guardian” (Kitteringham, G., 2020). In this context, the Bay St. Louis Police
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Department’s dwindling police force is the reduction in capable guardianship which
makes the
community more susceptible to crime. Moreover, this analysis highlights that maintaining an
adequate police presence is crucial to act as the capable guardianship in order to effectively deter
criminal activity.
Strategic Methods
Researching and investigating the repercussions and challenges caused by a dwindling
police force is a crucial first step in addressing the issue effectively. Utilizing the best practices in
research and analysis can significantly enhance the ability of criminal justice leaders to make
well informed evidence-based decisions on implementing the best solutions that enhance public
safety and the well-being of the community. Some of the best practices for strategic methods
would include but are not limited to:
* A detailed collection and analysis of the data on crime rates, police response times, and the
placement of police resources.
*An impact assessment to identify the current and possible future consequences of a dwindling
police force while further assessing if the decreased police presence may be disproportionately
affecting any specific demographic groups. According to Mourtgos et al (2023), police
departments that experience significant decreases in police staffing are also “likely to see a
deterioration in the quality of policing which may give rise to more incidents of officer
misconduct, increased violent crime, decreased policing services and a failure to meet
community and professional standards” (Mourtgos et al., 2023).
*Utilizing predictive policing analytics to anticipate where crime might happen so that resources
can be allocated accordingly. According to Sulehri (2023), some of primary benefits of utilizing
AI-powered surveillance and predictive policing are reduced crime rates, increased police
efficiency, and improved public safety (Sulehri, 2023).
*Last but not least, implement a long-term evidence-based strategic plan to mitigate the
challenges created by a dwindling police force.
Best Practices / Communication
As criminal justice professionals, effective communication skills are vitally important to
possess when dealing with the diverse group of people in the communities we serve. Being able
to communicate effectively can foster trust building and mutual respect, it can help prevent or
clear up misunderstandings and deescalate bad situations. Effective communication is also vital
in community policing roles. According to Baker et al (2020), police officers who take the time
to show kindness and understanding when dealing with “those who may be disrespectful will
likely foster a more positive atmosphere” (Baker et al., 2020). Moreover, having effective
communication skills as it relates to the challenges posed by a dwindling police force provides
the criminal justice leaders with a route to effectively express their concerns to the general public
as well as a way to ask the public for help in mitigating the criminal activity within their
communities by forming/participating in local neighborhood watch programs and/or community
based youth development programs to name a few. According to Brennan et al. (2007), “through
active engagement, youth can take on ownership and become lifelong contributors to local well-
being” (Brennan et al., 2007).
III. Literature Review
Data Analysis
Upon analyzing the data of the Bay St. Louis Police Department from 2009 to 2016, the
analysis has revealed that the workload of officers gradually decreased between 2009 and 2012,
then gradually increased between 2013 and 2015 with a slight decrease in 2016 alongside a
fluctuating, but gradual decrease in the number of officers available to allocate the heavier
workloads to. The analysis further revealed a noticeable upward trend of violent contacts that
subjects have had with officers over the years, with a slight decrease in 2010, and a considerable
decrease in 2016. Additionally, the data shows that the funding allocated to the police department
for hiring new officers and facility upkeep has been on a drastic downward trend since its last
slight increase in 2011. Data about funding for the year 2016 has not yet been released.
The meaning and significance gleaned from the analyzed data is that there is a continuous
strain on the available resources of the department due to its dwindling police force. As indicated
in the Routine Activities theory, criminals are taking advantage of this lack of capable
guardianship (Kitteringham, 2020), which in turn creates an atmosphere for increased violent
contacts between police officers and subjects to culminate. Last but not least, the drastic
downward funding trend and the absence of funding data for 2016 could indicate an ongoing
budgetary uncertainty for 2016.
Research
In identifying prior solutions that similar organizations have implemented for addressing
the repercussions and challenges bought about by a dwindling police force, Kaste (2023)
reported that in the years following the George Floyd protest, many police departments across
the U.S. reported that officers are leaving faster than they can be replaced, and that one extreme
example of this is happening to the New Orleans Police Department (NOPD) (Kaste, M., 2023).
According to Schirm (2022), to help mitigate the challenges of its dwindling police force and
save the reputation of the city for being a place that tourist love to visit, NOPD hired “former
New York City police patrol chief Fausto Pichardo and assistant chief Thomas Conforti”
as
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consultants to help formulate a draft plan focused on “recruitment, retainment and re-shifting
forces” (Schirm, C., 2022).
The final draft sets out 50 “science based” recommendations focusing on the three
primary objectives “and how it will be measured” (Schirm, C., 2022). Some of the
recommendations include redeployment of 212 NOPD officers currently assigned to
administrative duties, district detective roles, and other general assignments, back to patrol duty.
The recommendations further suggested that NOPD create a chief of staff position that would
oversee the daily operations for the entire department which could free up several shift
supervisors to return to full patrol duties. Other recommendations included raises, student loan
forgiveness, providing take home vehicles, mortgage help of $65,000 as incentives which may be
covered by the American Rescue Plan over the next three years, adding more crime cameras, and
contracting with an unarmed civilian agent company which could take care of 15,000 low risk
noninjury car wrecks, fingerprinting duties, property crime investigations, welfare checks, loud
party complaints, and other low risk duties throughout the year (Kaste, 2023) (Schirm, 2022).
Root Causes
Currently, the challenges of police recruitment and retainment faced by police
departments around the U.S. stems from calls to defund the police and the culmination of many
innocent, and sometimes not so innocent, but still unarmed, Black individuals (George Floyd,
Breonna Taylor, Elija Ellis, mom to be Charleena Lyles, etc.) who were shot or killed some other
way by police officers who took an oath to protect them.
Conclusion
In conclusion, many police departments around the U.S. are grappling with similar
challenges stemming from a dwindling police force. Some are coming up with innovative ideas
to address their specific issues, while others are reviewing and implementing the best evidence-
based practices used by other criminal justice leaders grappling with similar issues. According to
the evidence-based research in this report, diverting most nonurgent calls from police to trained
civilian agents may prove to be the best evidence-based police alternative that solves the policing
shortage problem and fosters a restored civilian faith in our criminal justice system and the
police that serve our communities.
References
Baker, V., Somera, L., & Giles, H. (2020).
Police communication: Why does it matter?
National
Communication Association.
https://www.natcom.org/communication-currents/police-
communication-why-does-it-matter
Brennan, M., Barnett, R. V., & Lesmeister, M. K. (2007). Enhancing local capacity and youth
involvement in the community development process.
Community Development
,
38
(4),
13-27.
https://doi.org/10.1080/15575330709489816
Kaste, M. (2023).
New Orleans police department taps civilians amid an officer shortage
.
NPR.
https://www.npr.org/2023/03/17/1164383840/new-orleans-police-department-taps-
civilians-amid-an-officer-shortage
Kitteringham, G. (2020).
Routine Activity theory
. Science
Direct.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/social-sciences/routine-activity-theory
Mourtgos, S. M., Nix, J., & Adams, I. (2023, February 7).
Memphis police numbers dropped by
nearly a quarter in recent years – were staffing shortages a factor in the killing of Tyre
Nichols?
The Conversation.
https://theconversation.com/memphis-police-numbers-
dropped-by-nearly-a-quarter-in-recent-years
Nickerson, C. (2023).
Merton’s strain theory of deviance and anomie in sociology
. Simply
Psychology.
https://www.simplypsychology.org/mertons-strain-theory-deviance.html
Schirm, C. (2022).
NOPD's new consultant releases recommendations for police staffing issues
.
WDSU.
https://www.wdsu.com/article/new-orleans-police-consultant-recommendations
Sulehri, B. (2023).
AI-powered surveillance and predictive policing: Potential benefits and risks
.
LinkedIn.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ai-powered-surveillance-predictive-policing-
potential-sulehr
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