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Jan 9, 2024
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Intelligence, Policy and Anticipatory Intelligence
Adriana M. Moreno
HLS 460 – Intelligence and Law Enforcement
Trident University International Dr. Jack Armstrong
October 22, 2023
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Intelligence, Policy and Anticipatory Intelligence In order to properly understand the relationship between intelligence and policy in relation to law
enforcement, one must first understand what intelligence and policy are on their own.
“Intelligence is the product of an analytic process that evaluates information collected from
diverse sources” (Federation of American Scientists, n.a.). The information found from these
sources is then complied to form a clear and concise idea that helps law enforcement explain
what has occurred in relation to what is being investigated. It allows law enforcement to produce
a “product intended to provide meaningful and trustworthy direction to law enforcement decision
makers about complex criminality, criminal enterprises, criminal extremists, and terrorists”
(Federation of American Scientists, n.a.). Policies are defined as “a system of laws, regulatory
measures, courses of action and funding priorities concerning a given topic promulgated by a
governmental entity or its representatives” (Kilpatrick, 2000). Intelligence and policy go hand in
hand, one cannot truly be effective without the other, they have a symbiotic relationship in that
one will always shape and determine the other. One of the biggest disconnects known as
“intelligence failure” (Barry et al., n.a.) speaks to the larger issue of a breakdown of
communication between intelligence gatherers or agencies and policy makers or officials.
Without this communication, policy makers are unable to write or improve important policies
that can govern anything from local to federal issues. On the other hand, without the proper
policies in place, intelligence agencies are unable to collect the information needed to accurately
inform said policy makers, so the cycle can become a vicious one that ultimately leads to
nowhere. The relationship between intelligence and policy is important and has an impact on the
overall safety of the country as a whole. Even smaller local governments who experience a
breakdown of the relationship between the two can put lives and overall safety in jeopardy.
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Anticipatory Intelligence
In a commentary written by Josh Kerbel, he describes anticipatory intelligence as “The intelligence process or practice whereby potentially emergent developments stemming from the increasingly complex security environment are foreseen via the cultivation of holistic perspectives” (Kerbel, 2019). He gives a very candid view on the intelligence community’s approach or lack thereof to anticipatory intelligence and comes across as extremely critical; which is all to support his point that said communities need to make adjustments sooner rather than later when it comes to adapting to the changes inherent to anticipatory intelligence. From what I can gather, the antithesis of anticipatory intelligence is what I personally experienced within the military and what our government is still doing today; giving knee-jerk reactions to situations or groups we have intelligence on, as opposed to using the context clues that are given to be more proactive and less reactive to situations. Given the amount of technology we currently have and the amount of information we have the ability to gather, the idea that we are not able to be more prepared when it comes to the threats that the country faces is almost astounding. I in no way believe that someone can predict every possible scenario, but I do believe that more often than not, the proverbial writing is on the
wall, so to speak, and some events are more – historically – bound to happen. I believe that having access to the amount of information we have also means that we should use said information to attempt to predict next likely targets, key infrastructure areas within the country, etc.
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North Korea
North Korea has been a major concern for the security of the United States for the last few decades at a minimum. The idea of anticipatory intelligence can be used with almost any of our adversaries, but especially North Korea given the amount of information we have surrounding them, but also due to the brazenness of the current leadership in an attempt to further their ideals and ideology. North Korea has been working on its nuclear program for decades, and its current leader, Kim Jong-un has never minced words when it comes to the intent
of their intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program or its goals. Historically, North Korea has not been able to successfully launch an ICBM, or even test one successfully, but with each test carried out and even with each failure, they are making progress, however slow it may appear on the outside, towards their goal of obtaining the ability to make nuclear strikes on any country that they so choose. According to a publication written by
the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, one of the potential flaws in North Korea’s infrastructure is its idea and adherence to its “hierarchical political, military, and social structure – a veritable “one man rule” system” (Smith & Bernstein, 2022). Because of this, Kim Jong-un has made it very clear that he is sole proprietor of anything having to do with nuclear retaliation; the publication goes on to suggest that due to this, one possible solution to decrease the chances of a nuclear attack by North Korea could be to attack Kim Jong-un personally in order to neutralize the threat posed (Smith & Bernstein, 2022). The publication continues to suggest possible mitigation strategies that North Korea could adopt in order to spread out their ability to carry out a nuclear attack; which also leaves more opportunities for exploitation by the United States or its allies to thwart said strategies (Smith & Bernstein, 2022). These assessments of our enemies are the beginnings of anticipatory intelligence; we know the rules that North Korea currently follows
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and how the country itself operates. With that information, there are ways to deduce how those procedures could or how likely they are to play out, and we can then create our own mitigation strategies to exploit any vulnerabilities that are left.
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References Barry , J. A., Davis, J., Gries, D. D., & Sullivan , J. (n.d.). Bridging the Intelligence-Policy Divide . Central Intelligence Agency. https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/studies-in-
intelligence/archives/vol-37-no-3/bridging-the-intelligence-policy-divide/
Federation of American Scientists. (n.d.). Understanding contemporary law enforcement intelligence: Concept and ...
Intelligence Resource Program - Federation of American Scientists . https://irp.fas.org/agency/doj/lei/chap2.pdf
Kerbel, J. (2019, August 13). Coming to terms with anticipatory intelligence
. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2019/08/coming-to-terms-with-anticipatory-intelligence/
Kilpatrick, D. G. (2000). Definitions of Public Policy and the Law
. Definitions of public policy and the law. https://mainweb-v.musc.edu/vawprevention/policy/definition.shtml#:~:text=Public
%20policy%20can%20be%20generally,governmental%20entity%20or%20its
%20representatives.
Smith, S., & Bernstein, P. (2022, August). NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR COMMAND AND CONTROL: ALTERNATIVES AND IMPLICATIONS. https://wmdcenter.ndu.edu/Portals/97/Documents/Publications/NK-Nuclear-Command-
and-Control_Report.pdf
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