14 -LDRS PM Risk Management and Estimation Fall 2023 Slides

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Estimation and Risk Management
Agenda • Questions on Industry Leader Interview • Estimation Techniques • Analogous • Phase • Parametric • Bottom Up • Risk Management • Identifying Risk • Assessing Risk • Mitigating Risk You should be able to apply the estimation techniques to your project and create a risk mitigation plan. 10/22/2023 3
Project Planning 10/22/2023 4 Scope Project Methodology Work Breakdown Structure Roles and Responsibilities Risk Management Schedule Cost and Budget
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Estimation Process 10/22/2023 5 Estimation Process Make Rough Top-down Estimate Develop WBS Make Detailed Bottom-up Estimate Reconcile the difference
Estimating Techniques • Analogous – Top Down • Phase Estimation • Parametric Estimation • Task Estimation (WBS) - Bottom Up • Ask the Experts • Ask the Vendor – equipment or contract • Agile – Planning Poker • Pert Task Estimation 10/22/2023 6
Analogous • Estimation is based on time of a similar project • Form of top down estimate – start from less specific to more specific • Can be used to estimate a phase or a similar feature that is part of a project 10/22/2023 7 Research Feasibility Prototype Publish Total Project - Basic 4 weeks 6 weeks 12 weeks 4 weeks 26 weeks Project - Complex 6 weeks 12 weeks 30 weeks 4 weeks 52 weeks Project - Advanced 12 weeks 40 weeks 48 weeks 4 weeks 104 weeks What’s the time estimate to complete another research project with a complex scope?
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Analogous Advantages • Overall project time estimate can be determined quickly • Small tasks need not be identified individually so requires lower effort • Effective early on in the project when information is unknown Disadvantages • Typically less accurate • Less confident in estimate • May lead to expectations with significant unknowns • Can be more difficult to get buy in 10/22/2023 8
Phase Estimating • Allocate % of total time to each phase of the project 10/22/2023 9
Examples of Phased Estimation • Total time 1 year • Phases are evenly distributed • Allocation based on scope of phase Test 1 25% 13 weeks Test 2 25% 13 weeks Test 3 25% 13 weeks Test 4 25% 13 weeks Research 15% 8 weeks Collect Data 20% 10 weeks Analyze Data 40% 21 weeks Publish Results 25% 13 weeks 10/22/2023 10
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Parametric Estimation • Parametric Procedures Applied to Tasks • Establish a unit time and then multiply by quantity 10/22/2023 11 Example: How much time should be in the plan to fix software defects during the project? Each defect takes 3 days on average to fix and test For 100 defects, it takes 300 days for 1 person or 300 person days We only have 30 days to release the product – we would need 10 people
Bottom-Up Estimation • Project broken down into tasks • Each task is estimated • Teams that do work estimate each task • Project Estimate – Sum of all the estimates 10/22/2023 12
Estimation using PERT Program Evaluation Review Technique • Weighted average for each activity • PERT has defined four types of time required to accomplish an activity: • optimistic time : the minimum possible time required to accomplish an activity (o) • assuming everything proceeds better than is normally expected • pessimistic time : the maximum possible time required to accomplish an activity (p) • assuming everything goes wrong (but excluding major catastrophes). • most likely time : the best estimate of the time required to accomplish an activity (m) • assuming everything proceeds as normal. • expected time : the best estimate of the time required to accomplish an activity (te) • accounting for the fact that things don't always proceed as normal, the implication being that the expected time is the average time the task would require if the task were repeated on a number of occasions over an extended period of time. 10/22/2023 13 te = o + 4m + p 6 72 days 6 = 5 days + 4 x 10 days + 27 days 6 = 12 days
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Task Estimation for Complex Research Project 10/22/2023 14 Research Literature Review 3 weeks Brainstorm Ideas 2 weeks Research technical feasibility 3 week Agree on proposal 2 week Feasibility Develop models 2 week Design experiments for mechanical systems 6 week Design experiments for electrical systems 6 weeks Conduct experiments 8 week Prototype Design Prototype 4 weeks Buy parts 2 weeks Build prototype 24 week Test prototype 24 weeks Publish Write Draft 2 week Review Draft 1 week Submit for publication 1 week Approval attained 4 weeks
Task Estimation for Complex Research Project 10/22/2023 15 Research 10 wks Literature Review 3 weeks Brainstorm Ideas 2 weeks Research technical feasibility 3 week Agree on proposal 2 week Feasibility 22 wks Develop models 2 week Design experiments for mechanical systems 6 week Design experiments for electrical systems 6 weeks Conduct experiments 8 week Prototype 54 wks Design Prototype 4 weeks Buy parts 2 weeks Build prototype 24 week Test prototype 24 weeks Publish 8 wks Write Draft 2 week Review Draft 1 week Submit for publication 1 week Approval attained 4 weeks Total Estimate Effort 95 weeks
Analogous Estimation 10/22/2023 16 What’s the estimate to implement a research project that is similar in scope to a complex research project? 95 weeks Research Feasibility Prototype Publish Total Project - Basic 4 weeks 6 weeks 12 weeks 4 weeks 26 weeks Project - Complex 6 weeks 12 weeks 30 weeks 4 weeks 52 weeks Project - Advanced 12 weeks 40 weeks 48 weeks 4 weeks 104 weeks 52 weeks Bottoms Up Analgous or
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Iterative / Negotiated Estimation Process • Make rough top-down estimates • Develop WBS • Make bottom-up estimates • Reconcile differences between top-down/bottom-up estimates 10/22/2023 17 52 weeks or 95 weeks?
Bottom-Up Pros and Cons Advantages • Greater buy in by low level managers • More likely to catch/consider unusual or higher risk tasks Disadvantages • People tend to overstate their requirements • Can take a lot of time and resources to create • Contingency can be overstated • Management tends to cut the schedule 10/22/2023 18
Guidelines for Estimation • Have people familiar with tasks make estimate • Use several people to make estimates • Base estimates on normal conditions, efficient methods and a normal level of resources • Use consistent time units in estimating task times. • Treat each task as independent, don’t aggregate • Begin without making allowances for contingencies • But…add risk assessment to avoid surprises 10/22/2023 19
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Risk Management 10/22/2023 20
Definition of Project Risk “an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on one or more project objectives, such as scope, schedule, cost or quality” 10/22/2023 21
Risk Management • Identifying risk • Analyzing risk • How do we manage, mitigate or minimize risk? 10/22/2023 22
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Risks • Risk Categories • Known Risks with Predictable Outcome • Known Risks with Unpredictable Outcome • Unknown Risks with Unpredictable Outcome • Source of risk • Internal – resource availability, equipment failure, duration or cost exceeds plan • External – vendor delay, new technology, weather, legal 10/22/2023 23
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Technical Risk Cost Risk Schedule Risk Limited Fund s T e c hnical Pr o blems Imposed Budgets Threat Changes Com pressed Sch edules Techn ical Pro bl ems Demand Schedul es Schedule Slips Programmatic Risk Risk is always present 10/22/2023 24
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Risk Identification Techniques • Historical Information • Check list • Brainstorming • Interviewing 10/22/2023 25
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Risk Identification Techniques • Historical Information • Check list • Brainstorming • Interviewing 10/22/2023 26
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Components of Risk Likelihood of Event Low Risk Not Likely Very Likely Harsh Benign Consequence of Event High Risk Medium Risk 10/22/2023 27
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Risk Profile and Probability Impact Matrix 10/22/2023 28
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Risk Profile and Probability Impact Matrix .12 .08 Medium -.4 High - .6 Low - .2 . 04 .24 .24 .36 .16 .08 .12 Impact Low - .2 Medium - .4 High - .6 Likelihood 10/22/2023 29 3 2 Medium -2 High - 3 Low - 1 1 6 6 9 4 2 3 Impact Low - 1 Medium - 2 High - 3 Likelihood
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Risk Assessment and Mitigation Plan Risk Likelihood Impact Risk Score Mitigation Steps Low Low 1 Low Medium 2 Low High 3 Medium Low 2 Medium Medium 4 Medium High 6 High Low 3 High Medium 6 High High 9
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Automation of a Manufacturing Process Stage Risk Likelihood Impact Score Mitigation Steps Waiting for Hardware Purge logic not completed Low Low 1 The candidate learned ladder logic and can complete this task if assignee does not Tray coating issue Medium Medium 4 Investigate early but save money in the budget in case trays need to be remade Parts are delayed High Medium 6 Order one month before the part is necessary Hardware Installation Wiring shorts Low Low 1 Have an electrical engineer check electrical box grounding before powering on the robot Sensors break Low Low 1 Sensors are cheap; have spares on hand Software Coding Image overlay more complicated than first assumed High High 9 Do thorough research and prioritize software engineering resource time for this complex code Difficulty running subsystems simultaneously Medium High 6 Minimize the number of subsystems that need to be controlled by the raspberry pi Data Collection/Measureme nts Data is flawed or biased Low Low 1 Monitor data daily to ensure system can be reset if data is invalid Not enough time left for thorough data collection Medium Low 2 Scheduled 9 weeks of data collection but can prove improvements in < 3weeks
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Risk Assessment for Development of Innovative Small Volume Blood Plasma Isolation Technology Risk Impact Likelihood Risk Score Mitigation Candidate’s inability to develop the technology H L 3 Taker advantage of colleagues and available resources Vendor/outsourcing may take longer than the scope of the project H M 6 Proactively identify multiple vendors Candidate’s lack of expertise in prototype development M H 6 Leverage colleagues; expand research breadth Ordered parts don’t work for the need H M 6 Design multiple prototypes early on to maximize opportunity for success. At least one should have the desired effect. Plasma quality is poor when processed by the prototypes H M 6 Revise prototypes Minimal variety of subjects type. Variety allows for a more complete data set. M M 4 Attempt to expand pool of subjects; change conditions of experiments to optimize strategy Loss of funding for the project due to other priorities within the company. H L 3 Minimize expenses and be aware of other projects happening within Seventh Sense.
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Leadership Skills Managing Risk 10/22/2023 33
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Planning for Schedule Risk • Contingency reserves – time allocated for unexpected events • Can be a % of total project • Can be a % of each phase • Can be a variable % for specific activities based on risk • Identify actions if risk occurs – risk mitigation plan 10/22/2023 34
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Considering Contingency in the Schedule 10/22/2023 35 Research 10 wks Literature Review 3 weeks Brainstorm Ideas 2 weeks Research technical feasibility 3 week Agree on proposal 2 week Feasibility 22 wks Develop models 2 week Design experiments for mechanical systems 6 week Design experiments for electrical systems 6 weeks Conduct experiments 8 week Prototype 54 wks Design Prototype 4 weeks Buy parts 2 weeks Build prototype 24 week Test prototype 24 weeks Publish 8 wks Write Draft 2 week Review Draft 1 week Submit for publication 1 week Approval attained 4 weeks Total Estimate Effort 95 weeks
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Risk Tolerance • Risk Tolerance • Amount of risk tolerated for a potential derived benefit • Risk Appetite • Level of uncertainty stakeholders are willing to take for potential positive impact • Risk Threshold • Measures of uncertainty the organization is willing to operate within • Risk Attitude • Willingness and degree to which one takes risk based on benefit • Risk averse, risk tolerant, risk takers 10/22/2023 36
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Responding to Risk • Mitigate • Accept • Avoid • Transfer • Escalate 10/22/2023 37
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Risk Plan for Project Paper 10/22/2023 38 • Provide a risk mitigation plan using a table that identifies a thorough list of risks, likelihood, impact, overall risk, and actions to mitigate. • Discuss your assessment of project risk, its alignment with risk tolerance of the organization and considerations for seeing a successful completion.
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Summary • Estimation Techniques • Identifying risk and its impact • Managing risk 10/22/2023 39
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Key Dates and Assignments • Due 10/30 • Read Chapter 8 • 2 nd Presentation – Applying Leadership Skills • Prior to class on 10/31 – Download trial of Gantter • 11/1 – Presentation 2 in person class – no slides • Due 11/13 – Project Paper • Due 11/27 – Industry Leader Interview 10/22/2023 40
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Questions? 10/22/2023 41
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