Qizheng Xie_Unit 5 Case Studies II
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BI4020 Ecology Fall 2022
Unit 5: Populations case study II
Using
the simulation
created by Jon Darkow you will investigate the population dynamics of the
white footed mouse. All credit goes to Jon Darkow for creating this excellent modeling activity.
Changing Carrying Capacity:
The White-Footed Mouse
Simulation
Simulation is at
jondarkow.com
This simulation uses the logistic growth
equation to model population growth for
the White-Footed Mouse,
Peromyscus leucopus.
In this activity, you will design
and test a hypothesis that can be answered by the simulation.
❏
The simulation has 6 different variables for you to manipulate.
❏
Random variation is built into the simulation, so be sure to run each condition multiple times and find
the mean value for each condition.
❏
Click on the line on the graph to obtain the value at a given time period.
❏
Record results in a data table.
1.
Choose one of the research questions that the simulation can answer. Alternatively,
design your own research question that the simulation can answer.
a.
How does the “Starting Population” affect carrying capacity?
b.
How does “Habitat” size affect the carrying capacity?
c.
How does “Food” affect the carrying capacity?
d.
How does the “chipmunk” population size affect carrying capacity?
e.
How does “predator” affect carrying capacity?
f.
What is the optimal “temperature” for the White-Footed Mouse?
-
My own research question: How does the average litter size affect the carrying
capacity?
2.
Write a hypothesis that can be tested by the simulation.
-
I hypothesize that the larger the size of the habitat area is, the higher the carrying
capacity will be.
3.
Write what you predict the results will be to your research question.
-
With a larger habitat area size comes a higher carrying capacity.
4.
What is your independent variable? This you will graph on the x-axis.
-
Habitat size (ha)
5.
What is your dependent variable? This you will graph on the y-axis.
-
Carrying capacity (N)
6.
Describe your control variables.
-
Relative water, temperature, chipmunks per area, predators per ha, hickory
masting, average litter size, and initial mouse population.
7.
Record your data in the data table below.
Area = 2ha
Area = 4ha
Area = 6ha
Area = 8ha
Area = 10ha
Trial 1
37
48
63
77
93
Trial 2
36
48
62
76
93
Trial 3
38
47
60
77
97
Trial 4
37
48
64
80
93
Trial 5
37
47
63
80
94
Mean of
Trials
37
47.6
62.4
78
94
8.
Create a graph of the mean values of your results. Be sure to include: Title, labeled
independent variable, and labeled dependent variable.
9.
Justify whether you should confirm or reject your hypothesis based on your data.
-
My result confirmed my hypothesis because it shows a proportional trend
between the size of the habitat area and the mouse population.
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Directions:
Choose one of the following challenge questions below. Use the simulation to
generate a claim, evidence to support the claim, and reasoning that connects ecological
principles with your claim supported by your evidence.
Challenge Questions:
A.
Which variables are density-dependent factors, and which are density-independent
factors?
B.
What is the optimal temperature for mice in the simulation?
a.
Claim: Around 20 degrees celsius is the optimal temperature for mice in
the simulation.
b.
Method: 5 trials with varying temperatures (10, 20, 30, 40 C) and constant
control variables.
c.
d.
Result: there is not that much of a difference between the carrying
capacity of mice at temperatures from 10-40 degrees celsius, with 20
degrees celsius having a slightly higher value.
e.
Discussion: the result matches ecological principles because mice have
similar habitats as humans, so their bearing temperature is similar to that
of humans. Additionally, mice can survive in a lot of scenarios, hence
having a wide range of habitable temperatures makes sense.
C.
How does available habitat affect the density of the white-footed mouse population?
D.
Graph 3 in the simulation graphs the incidence of Lyme disease in the white-footed
mouse population. Under what conditions is Lyme disease greater than 0.28 (28%)?
E.
Suppose you are a scientist for the Center of Disease Control (CDC), and in charge of
controlling Lyme disease in the area. What factors can you change that will have the
least impact on the local ecosystem resources?