Angel Oppong - Lab+11+Numerical+Weather+Forecast+Report+-F23+revision
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Eastern Michigan University *
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Course
101
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Date
Jan 9, 2024
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Angel Oppong
Updated Nov 20, 2023
ESSC 101 Lab 11: Numerical Forecasting Report
1. After reading the Lab procedures, formulate a question that will be answered after
completing your lab.
Using various weather maps, how will we be able to tell the temperatures, precipitation type,
amount type, and wind direction and speed?
2. Describe the methodology you will use to complete your laboratory exercise.
(Remember
that would include, an explanation of how you obtained the data, and how the materials will be
used to complete your lab.)
Will use NAM and GFS weather models.
3. Record Data:
A. Forecast window
1) Current
date
and
time
in Detroit:
11/27 2:56PM
2) Forecast Window (
Date and time
) From:
11/27 2:56PM
to (
Date and time
):
11/28 2:56PM
B. Iowa State Meteograph Data for KDET
1)
Paste
(or in separate file) screen shot of the Meteograph image for Temperature with
upper window highlighting parameters:
2)
Paste
(or in Separate file) screenshot of
the Meteograph for Winds (Speed and direction):
3)
Record Data in Table:
Data Table 1
Weather Parameter
NAM Data
GFS Data
Comparison
High Temperature within
Forecast window
17°F
46°F
29°F
Low Temperature within the
forecast window
9°F
28°F
19°F
Angel Oppong
Updated Nov 20, 2023
High Dewpoint Temp within
the forecast window
34°F
0.02in
33.98
Weather Parameter (cont.)
NAM Data
GFS Data
Comparison
Low Dewpoint Temp within
the forecast window
25°F
0in
25
Wind Mean Speed range
(Average, Max, timing of
change)
Max: 42°F
Med: 39°F
Min: 31°F
Max, Med, Min: 0
in
11°F
Wind Direction
(general
azimuth direction, compass
direction and timing of any
changes of direction)
35°F
0.01in
34.99
Precipitation Type forecasted
12 Z NAM
06 Z GFS
6Z
Precipitation start time
within the window
Start: Thursday
12 UTC
End: Friday 00
UTC
Start: Sunday
00 UTC
End: Monday 18
UTC
12 UTC and 18
UTC
Precipitation end time within
the forecast window
Thursday 12 UTC
-
Friday 00 UTC
Sunday
00 UTC -
Monday 18 UTC
12 UTC and 18
UTC
Amount per hour
12 MPH
7 – 11 MPH
5 MPH
C. Precipitation Amount
1)
Paste a NAM Prognostic Chart here:
2)
Paste a GFS Prognostic Chart here:
3)
Data Table with precipitation amounts:
Forecast
Model
24h forecast
30h forecast
36h forecast
42h forecast
Total
NAM model
0.75 – 1.00
0.25
1.50 – 2.00
0.5
1.00 – 1.50
0.5
0.75 – 1.00
0.25
1.5
Angel Oppong
Updated Nov 20, 2023
GFS model
1.50 – 2.00
0.5
0.01 – 0.10
0.09
0
1.00 – 1.50
0.5
1.9
4.
Laboratory Analysis:
A) Model Comparison
Different models do not always provide the same forecast. When model forecasts are similar
then the forecast has a high degree of confidence and forecasters will rely heavily on model
consensus. When model forecasts are different then the forecast has a low degree of confidence
and forecasters must use their experience with different models to decide which models handle
certain situations better. Compare your NAM and GFS data by looking at the difference
between the forecast result for each parameter, by determining their differences and recording
them in the Data Table 1. Based on the differences you calculated between the two model
forecasts would you have a high or low amount of confidence in the model results? Explain
your answer.
Based on the differences that I calculated, I would have a large amount of confidence in the
model because of the small amount of difference between the two parameters.
B) Weather Forecast
Analyze all the data collected above and make numerical weather forecast for Detroit
including all weather parameters, and precipitation for the next day. The forecast should be
written as if for a local newspaper, news station or weather channel. If you are not sure watch
the evening news. Remember to include a discussion explaining why you made your forecast,
and how you used your collected data to support your forecast. Don’t forget to include your
forecast window.
Tomorrow, on Tuesday, November 28
th
, we should see a high of 28° with mostly clear skies,
and some clouds in the evening, as the low will be 16° at night.
5.
Final Lab Conclusion:
After completing your analysis, write a conclusion to your Lab report. Your conclusion
should describe if you answer the questions at the beginning of the Lab and address the
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Angel Oppong
Updated Nov 20, 2023
comparison of the different model as related to your level of confidence in your forecast. (Use
back for additional space.
Using the different weather parameter websites, we were able to see the different
temperatures, wind direction, speed, and tell the precipitation amount and type. The difference
between the amount were small, and this made for a very positive set of parameters.