7_1_Final_Project_Milestone_Three__Recommendations_and_Future_Outcomes
xlsx
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School
Southern New Hampshire University *
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Course
QSO-520-06
Subject
Industrial Engineering
Date
Jan 9, 2024
Type
xlsx
Pages
7
Uploaded by RosaleeB
Template for Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Method with Trend
Exponential
Range Name
Cells
Time True
Latest
Estimated
Smoothing
Forecasting
Alpha
J6
Period
Value
Trend
Trend
Forecast
Error
Smoothing Constants
Beta
J7
1
52
2.00
52
0
a =
0.2
EstimatedTrend
E6:E35
2
55
2.00
2.00
54
1
b =
0.5
Forecast
F6:F35
3
55
2.20
2.10
56
1
ForecastingError
G6:G35
4
58
1.84
1.97
58
0
Initial Estimates
InitialEstimateAverage
J10
5
59
1.97
1.97
60
1
Average =
50
InitialEstimateTrend
J11
6
63
1.77
1.87
62
1
Trend =
2
LatestTrend
D6:D35
7
65
2.14
2.01
64
1
MAD
J14
8
66
2.22
2.11
66
0
Mean Absolute Deviation
MSE
J17
9
67
2.06
2.09
68
1
MAD =
0.88
TrueValue
C6:C35
10
72
1.83
1.96
70
2
11
73
2.36
2.16
73
0
Mean Square Error
12
74
2.25
2.20
75
1
MSE =
1.11
13
2.03
2.12
77
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Template for Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Method with Trend
Exponential
Range Name
Cells
Time True
Latest
Estimated
Smoothing
Forecasting
Alpha
J6
Period
Value
Trend
Trend
Forecast
Error
Smoothing Constants
Beta
J7
1
52
2.00
52
0
a =
0.2
EstimatedTrend
E6:E35
2
53
2.00
2.00
54
1
b =
0.5
Forecast
F6:F35
3
51
1.80
1.92
56
5
ForecastingError
G6:G35
4
50
0.98
1.54
56
6
Initial Estimates
InitialEstimateAverage
J10
5
48
0.28
1.04
56
8
Average =
50
InitialEstimateTrend
J11
6
47
-0.58
0.39
55
8
Trend =
2
LatestTrend
D6:D35
7
49
-1.18
-0.24
53
4
MAD
J14
8
52
-1.05
-0.56
52
0
Mean Absolute Deviation
MSE
J17
9
57
-0.50
-0.54
51
6
MAD =
6.40
TrueValue
C6:C35
10
63
0.62
-0.07
52
11
11
69
2.07
0.78
55
14
Mean Square Error
12
74
3.54
1.89
60
14
MSE =
62.12
13
4.71
3.02
65
14
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Forecast
Time Period
Value
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Template for Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Method with Trend
Exponential
Range Name
Cells
Time True
Latest
Estimated
Smoothing
Forecasting
Alpha
J6
Period
Value
Trend
Trend
Forecast
Error
Smoothing Constants
Beta
J7
1
52
2.00
52
0
a =
0.2
EstimatedTrend
E6:E35
2
53
2.00
2.00
54
1
b =
0.5
Forecast
F6:F35
3
51
1.80
1.90
56
5
ForecastingError
G6:G35
4
50
0.96
1.43
56
6
Initial Estimates
InitialEstimateAverage
J10
5
48
0.19
0.81
56
8
Average =
50
InitialEstimateTrend
J11
6
47
-0.74
0.03
54
7
Trend =
2
LatestTrend
D6:D35
7
49
-1.41
-0.69
52
3
MAD
J14
8
52
-1.31
-1.00
50
2
Mean Absolute Deviation
MSE
J17
9
57
-0.70
-0.85
50
7
MAD =
6.57
TrueValue
C6:C35
10
63
0.56
-0.14
51
12
11
69
2.22
1.04
55
14
Mean Square Error
12
74
3.92
2.48
60
14
MSE =
64.95
13
5.28
3.88
67
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Time Period
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Annual Sales Approaching
$150 Million
Demand
Face Cream
Upcoming Quarter (Q1)
12000
Hourly Rates
First Shift Hourly rate for Stage 1
8.5
First Shift Hourly rate for Stage 2
9.25
Second Shift Hourly rate for Stage 1
9.35
Second Shift Hourly rate for Stage 2
10.175
Cost of Raw Materials
Cost of Purified Water ($/pound)
1
Cost of Oil ($/pound)
1.5
Cost of Scents and Color ($/pound)
3
Cost of emulsifiers ($/pound)
2
Available Inventory
Purified Water (Pound)
200000
Oil
50000
Scents and Color
7500
Emulsifier
15000
Available Capacity
First Shift Available Capacity for Stage 1 (labor hours)
15000
First Shift Available Capacity for Stage 2 (labor hours)
10000
Second Shift Available Capacity for Stage 1 (labor hours)
13500
Second Shift Available Capacity for Stage 2 (labor hours)
9000
Criteria/Vendor
Face Cream
Labor (hours/carton)
Stage 1
1.5
Stage 2
0.8
Materials (pounds/carton)
Water
8
Oil
1
Scents and Color
0.5
Emulsifiers
0.5
alpha
Beta
Face Cream
Time Period
Average Demand
1
12000
2
13440
3
15052.8
Body Cream
Time Period
Average Demand
1
8000
2
8960
3
10035.2
Hand Cream
Time Period
Average Demand
1
18000
2
20160
3
22579.2
Body Cream
Hand Cream
8000
18000
Body Cream
Hand Cream
1.8
1
1
0.5
6
7
3
2
0.3
0.4
0.7
0.6
0.2
0.5
Forecast Face Cream
Trend Face Cream
FIT Face Cream
Forecasting Error
12000
0
12000
0
12000
0
12000
1440
12288
144
12432
2620.8
Forecast Body Cream
Trend Body Cream
FIT Body Cream
Forecasting Error
8000
0
8000
0
8000
0
8000
960
8192
96
8288
1747.2
Forecast Hand Cream
Trend Hand Cream
FIT Hand Cream
Forecasting Error
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18000
0
18000
0
18000
0
18000
2160
18432
216
18648
3931.2