Accident Timeline Analysis Colgan Air Flight 3407

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Utah Valley University *

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2130

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Industrial Engineering

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Dec 6, 2023

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pdf

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3

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Jocie Harding Accident Timeline and Analysis Colgan Air Flight 3407 The Normal Accident Theory (NAT) would highlight the complex systems aviation has. NAT views risks and accidents as products of failures within complex systems. The interactions between these systems can also cause unfavorable outcomes. NAT could suggest that these kinds of outcomes are inevitable because you are dealing with such complex systems that have a lot of factors within them. In the case of Colgan Air Flight 3407, NAT would look at the environmental system and the factors like icing that occur in that system as a precondition for unsafe acts. And the errors humans can make when not fully prepared for flight like fatigue as unsafe acts due to not being able to handle the situation in the appropriate way. Like how Captain Renslow was unable to react in the correct way to the stick shaker that was signaling a potential stall. NAT would emphasize that the crew's inadequate training and physical/mental ability would contribute to the systematic complexity of the situation. One thing to take into consideration with NAT, is the potential for a stagnant view on accidents, which can promote less growth in improving safety in aviation. Meaning that they think these outcomes can be impossible to fully avoid. High Reliability Theory (HRT) on the other hand suggests that accidents can be prevented. HRT would suggest implementing more safety protocols and provide an environment that promotes continuous improvement. So, when talking about Colgan Air Flight 3407 in the eyes of the HRT, they would focus on the human errors and how they can be preventable. Also including the organizational factors including practices and policies. This encourages training programs and more regulations. An example of more regulations that could have been improved upon to prevent Colgan Air Flight 3407, would be management and supervision over pilot fatigue. That way the human errors made during Flight 3407 would’ve been more preventable had these regulations been in place at the time. HRT also promotes more communication
between crew and management. Overall, HRT pushes airlines to always be improving their safety regulations and learn from accidents. In comparison, NAT has a more established way of looking at accidents than HRT. This is because HRT has a stance of promoting improvement so that accidents can be prevented and minimized. The approach from NAT can be seen as: accidents are unavoidable. But can implement learning opportunities on inherent risks. This impacts our learning and understanding because to just use one theory is to leave out important aspects of safety. While HRT may seem more favorable because it fosters accountability and encourages airlines to improve safety measures, being able to emphasize the complexity of systems in aviation makes NAT important. If the aviation industry learns to combine both NAT and HRT, accidents would happen less and the learning that would come from them would impact upon future pilots, enhancing overall safety in aviation. Colgan Air Flight 3407 Timeline and HFACS Classification: Day(s) leading up to the flight The captain and first officer make long commutes to the airport because of money and not being able to afford getting a hotel, this causes fatigue. Classification: Preconditions for unsafe acts, substandard conditions of operators, adverse mental and physiological states (fatigue). Before flight Crew members did not disclose their fatigue to the airline management. Classification: Preconditions for unsafe acts, substandard practice of operators, crew resource management (not communicating). Crew did not receive adequate training about aircraft, specifically the first officer. Classification: Unsafe supervision, inadequate supervision (failure to provide training, guidance
and track qualifications) and planned inappropriate operations (provided inadequate rest for crew). Flight departs on February 12, 2009 at 9:18pm from Newark, New Jersey The plane starts to experience icing conditions descending in Buffalo, New York. Icing on an aircraft causes more drag, slowing airspeed. Crew members do not check to make sure the de-icing system is working and do not check their airspeed. They start the checklist late and continue outside conversation during the checklist. Classification: Unsafe acts, errors, skill- based and decision (failed to prioritize attention, improper procedure). The stick shaker is activated, indicating a stall might happen. Classification: Unsafe acts, errors, skill- based (didn’t input the right controls for airspeed). Captain improperly responds to the stick shaker by pulli ng up when he should’ve pushed down and increased power to prevent a stall. Therefore, causing the plane to stall. The first officer then responds incorrectly by not communicating how to pull out of a stall and retracting the flaps, reducing the lift even more. Classification: Unsafe acts, errors, skill-based (not recovering from stall). Plane crashes in Clarence Center, New York at 10:16pm
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