9780133411898, Chapter 2, Problem 1QPP
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School
Arizona State University *
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Course
322
Subject
Industrial Engineering
Date
Nov 24, 2024
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1
Uploaded by CountCoyoteMaster507
Chapter 2, Problem 1QPP Problem Classify the uncertainty associated with the following items as either aleatory or epistemic and explain your reason for your classification: average wind speed over a 30-day period, location of a certain applied load, change in strength of a soil caused by sampling method, capacity determined by a certain analysis method, magnitude of live load caused by vehicles traveling on a bridge, soil shear strength as measured by a certain method. Step-by-step solution Step 1 07 2 Mention the classification of the items as follows: (1) Average wind speed over 30-day period: the uncertainty associated with the average wind speed over 30-day period is Aleatory, because the wind speed is random, it can change, and this classifies average wind speed as Aleatory, Aleatory uncertainty is a type of uncertainty is related to inherent randomness of nature. This randomness or uncertainty cannot be eliminated but only reduced. (2) Location of a certain applied load: the uncertainty associated with location of a certain applied load is epistemic, because here the uncertainty is related to imperfect knowledge of a system or process. And so, the location of certain applied load is classified as epistemic. The epistemic uncertainty can be eliminated by having better knowledge of the process, conducting the process accurately. (3) Change in strength of soil caused by sampling method: the uncertainty associated with change in strength of soil caused by sampling method is Aleatory, because the strength of soil keeps changing and is not certain and this uncertainty is related to inherent randomness of nature. The Aleatory uncertainty cannot be eliminated but only reduced. Step2 072 (4) Capacity determined by certain analysis method: the uncertainty associated with capacity determined by certain analysis method is epistemic, the capacity determined is classified as epistemic, because here the uncertainty is related to imperfect knowledge of a system or process, the capacity can be determined accurately by performing the analysis method in a correct way. And the epistemic uncertainty can be eliminated by having better knowledge of the process, conducting the process accurately. Conduct the analysis method without any manual errors. (5) Magnitude of live load caused by vehicle travelling on a bridge: the uncertainty associated with magnitude of live load caused by vehicle travelling on a bridge is epistemic, because here the uncertainty is related to imperfect knowledge of a system or process, the magnitude of live load can be determined accurately without any uncertainty by performing the process correctly. And the epistemic uncertainty can be eliminated by having better knowledge of the process, conducting the process accurately. Calculate the magnitude of live load accurately by having perfect knowledge of the method; and by taking accurate measurements. (6) Soil shear strength as measured by certain method: the uncertainty associated with soil shear strength measured by certain method is Aleatory, because the uncertainty of soil shear strength is purely dependent on nature, and so the uncertainty is related to inherent randomness of nature. This randomness or uncertainty cannot be eliminated but only reduced, even if many samples are taken and also if the method is performed perfectly without any errors.
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