Earthquake Prediction, Forecasting, and Early Warning Quiz

A6a: Earthquake Prediction, Forecasting, and Early Warning (Multiple Choice) Due Nov 10 at 11:59pm Points 28 Questions 30 Available Oct 31 at 12am - Nov 17 at 11:59pm Time Limit None Allowed Attempts 2 Instructions Attempt History Attempt Time Score LATEST Attempt 1 1,221 minutes 28 out of 28  Correct answers are hidden. Score for this attempt: 28 out of 28 Submitted Nov 1 at 4:22pm This attempt took 1,221 minutes. This assignment tackles earthquake prediction, forecasting, and early warning concepts. There are two part to the assignment, part A and part B: Part A : Contains all multi-choice questions. As usual, you will have 2 attempts to complete this part and your score will be the average of the two attempts. Part B: The free response part of this assignment. Read every answer choice carefully before making your choices. Take the Quiz Again Let's get started with forecasting. When the weather channel says there is a 10% chance of light showers in the next 24 hours in Springville, there are four components to this

forecast: 1) an event, 2) a timeframe, 3) an area, and 4) a probability tied to the first 3. 1 / 1 pts Question 1 Match each piece of this forecast with the correct category of forecasting component. A 20% chance of a snowstorm in Boulder, Colorado on Friday, November 19. 20% chance probability snowstorm event Boulder, Colorado location/ area Friday, Nov 19 timeframe A change to any one of the three constituent components will affect the probability value. For example, let’s consider rain forecasts: On average, it rains 123 days a year in Missoula, Montana. Without any other meteorological knowledge, I forecast that there is basically a 100% chance of rain in Missoula sometime in the next 12 months. But what about in the next 24 hours? Based purely on the number of rainy days in a year, I could say there is a 123/365 (34%) chance of rain on any

given day. Changing the time frame under consideration changed the forecast. 1 / 1 pts Question 2 Now let's think about this in the context of earthquake forecasts. Consider these 3 tables, which are from the most recent forecasting model for the state of California, UCERF3. The probability of a M6.7+ earthquake in the next 30 years is greater for the entire state than the Bay Area alone. What makes the difference?

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the size of the area considered is different the scientists making the forecasts are different the event is different the time frame is different 1 / 1 pts Question 3 The probability of a M8 earthquake in the next 30 years in the Bay Area is substantially smaller than the probability of a M6.7. What do you think is making the difference? one is forecasted to occur on the Hayward Fault and the other is forecasted to occur on the San Andreas Fault smaller earthquakes are more common, and larger earthquakes are more rare Different sized earthquakes happen in different places

we've had a large earthquake more recently than a small one 1 / 1 pts Question 4 Taking into account your answers to the previous two questions, what is a basic premise of forecasts like UCERF? Complete this statement: As the criteria (time frame, magnitude range, etc.) you use to make a forecast become more specific , then: The forecasted probabilities will become smaller Nothing happens to the probability. Regardless of what criteria are used in forecasts, the probabilities will always stay the same The forecasted probabilities will become larger Now let's talk about what drives forecast models for earthquakes.

The engine of plate tectonics is driving the surface of the earth to be in motion. The motion of the plates is accommodated along their boundaries via motion on the faults that make up the boundary. Some of this motion occurs via creep. ‘Slip deficit’ is the amount of tectonic motion that hasn’t yet been converted into fault motion. Therefore, slip deficit can be roughly translated to how much motion we expect must be expressed via an earthquake. 1 / 1 pts Question 5 What is the basic equation determining slip deficit? Creep - tectonic motion = slip deficit Creep + earthquake slip = slip deficit Tectonic motion - creep = slip deficit Tectonic motion + earthquake slip = slip deficit 1 / 1 pts Question 6 The longer a fault accumulates slip deficit... (select 2 answers) The likelihood of an earthquake of a given magnitude stays constant Creep speeds up A smaller earthquake (or combination of earthquakes) is required to release the built up stress

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An increasingly large earthquake (or combination of earthquakes) is required to release the built up stress Tectonic motion slows down more and more An earthquake of a given magnitude becomes increasingly likely 1 / 1 pts Question 7 There have been 3 UCERF reports. Each one provided a likelihood of a M6.7+ earthquake on the Hayward Fault within 30 years of the publication date. The 2003 model forecast a 27% chance. The 2008 forecast estimated a 31% likelihood, and the 2015 estimated 33%. What is one significant reason the likelihood changed with time? Stress has been transferred from the San Gregorio Fault to the Hayward Fault The motion of tectonic plates has gotten faster over time More stress has built up over time since there has not been a big earthquake The Hayward Fault has been creeping less over time 1 / 1 pts Question 8

What are some of the key measurements/research concepts that go into the development of an earthquake forecast? (Choose 4) Rate of tectonic motion Atmospheric radon measurements State of stress on a given fault Rate of creep on faults Alignment of the planets Study of earthquake rupture history for a given fault Videos from TikTok Global climate patterns Seasonal seismic patterns 1 / 1 pts Question 9 What does a probabilistic ground shaking model like this one depict?

The likelihood of liquefaction happening in a given area The likelihood of an earthquake of a given magnitude happening in a given area Regions with a set probability of experiencing an earthquake of a given magnitude in given time frame Regions with a set probability of exceeding a certain intensity of earthquake shaking in a given timeframe Now a transition to prediction:

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1 / 1 pts Question 10 Earthquake Forecasting and Prediction are the same thing. True False 1 / 1 pts Question 11 It is scientifically possible to make useful and believable earthquake predictions. True False 1 / 1 pts Question 12 What components are needed for an earthquake prediction to be useful? (Select 3) interval of time when it will occur is in sync with the phase of the moon Must be issued by the USGS Specific location Includes foreshocks

Magnitude (or narrow magnitude range) 1 / 1 pts Question 13 People have proposed many possible indicators to predict earthquakes. So far none of them have worked. Why? None of the people who made predictions were seismologists Some of them have been observed before an earthquake, but none have consistently been observed before every earthquake. The only accurate predictor is a species of toad in Italy, but the toads don’t live in other areas of the world. They only get reported after an earthquake, so they have the issue of hindsight bias. 1 / 1 pts Question 14 What kinds of observations are required to make earthquake prediction possible? all of these are necessary The physical properties of every single section of every fault The physics of how earthquakes start

The location of every single fault The stress loaded on every single patch of every fault 1 / 1 pts Question 15 It is currently possible to make all the observations necessary to make earthquake prediction a reliable reality. True False Now let's tackle earthquake early warning. 1 / 1 pts Question 16 Select the true statement. Earthquake early warning is a form of prediction Earthquake early warning is both an earthquake forecast and a prediction Earthquake early warning is neither a prediction nor an earthquake forecast. Earthquake early warning is an earthquake forecasting

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5 / 5 pts Question 17 Answer 1: When an earthquake [ Select ] , the [ Select ] travels the fastest away from the source and gets detected by [ Select ] . This seismic data [ Select ] , which/who rapidly computes that an earthquake has begun, and estimates the magnitude, the location of the epicenter, and the area that will experience shaking - then creates a warning. The early warning system in the US requires [ Select ] stations to send data in order to confirm that an earthquake is in progress, and the system must estimate the earthquake is [ Select ] in order to release a warning to the public. Delivery mechanisms like [ Select ] deliver the warning to users. The concept of early warning is that the detection and alerting process is very fast while the [ Select ] takes time to spread away from the source. How much warning time will users get? Warning time depends on [ Select ] . The closer a person is to the source, [ Select ] . You can receive an early warning [ Select ] you start to feel heavy shaking. begins

Answer 2: Answer 3: Answer 4: Answer 5: Answer 6: Answer 7: Answer 8: Answer 9: Answer 10: Answer 11: p-wave seismometers gets sent to a central computer server four at least a M4.5 MyShake heavy shaking that comes with the s-wave proximity to the earthquake source the less warning time they are able to receive before, simultaneous with, or after 1 / 1 pts Question 18

For people who do receive a warning before heavy shaking begins, about how much time should they expect (on average) to have to respond or take protective action? days seconds hours minutes 1 / 1 pts Question 19 What can be done with a few seconds of warning? (Choose the best 6) Land airplanes Stop elevators at the nearest floor and open the doors Move fragile patients out of a hospital Slow down trains Automatically open the garage doors for fire stations Evacuate the city Shut down fragile electronic or technical processes Surgeons can take their tools out of their patients Individuals can take protective action, like drop, cover, and hold on.

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Stop freeway traffic Secure all the hazardous fall-or-fling items in a room 1 / 1 pts Question 20 To receive early warnings in CA, (and get other global earthquake information) what app should you (pretty please) download? ShakeAlert EAlert MyShake QuakePrediction The next batch of questions are to double check that you can distinguish between the three categories of forecasting, prediction, and early warning. 1 / 1 pts Question 21 Identify what this statement is an example of: ‘There will be a M6-7 earthquake in Oaxaca, Mexico the next time the moon is full.’

Early Warning None of these Forecast Prediction 1 / 1 pts Question 22 Identify what this statement is an example of: ‘An earthquake has begun under Oakland and residents of San Jose can expect to experience strong shaking in 10 seconds’ Prediction Forecast Early Warning None of these 1 / 1 pts Question 23 Identify what this statement is an example of: ‘There will be a M6.2 earthquake in Arcata, CA, on May 3rd, 2022’ Prediction None of these Early Warning

Forecast 1 / 1 pts Question 24 Identify what this statement is an example of: ‘There is a 7% chance of a M8+ earthquake in the LA region before 2043’ Prediction None of these Early Warning Forecast Quiz Score: 28 out of 28

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