Balting Ringed Seals- Podcast Scientist Draft- Arsal Khan
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Dec 6, 2023
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Arsal Khan
2022-02-13
Podcast Scientist’s Draft- Baltic Ringed Sea (Interviewee)
Global warming has caused massive impacts in the global ecosystem. How species can
withstand global warming depends on their ability to move around and when they breed. We
heard the threat that global warming poses to winter animals such as polar bears, but these are
not the only animals that are threatened. Like polar bears, there are seals who create breeding
lairs on sea ice, which protects their pups against wind chill. This sea Ice also allows for these
seals to be protected from predators and keeps them in a protected bubble, repelling against
diseases or parasites! When seals breed and migrate is also dependant on sea ice structure.
Global warming poses a threat to seasonal ice distribution, and if seals have no where to go,
their very existence is threatened. Unlike Arctic/Antarctic seals who can move northward to
reach colder temperatures, Baltic ringed seals cannot migrate. Baltic ringed seals are in a
landlocked area, the Baltic Sea. Thus, reduction in sea ice impacts these seals. These Baltic
ringed seals have been isolated from the Arctic ringed seal population since the last ice age! The
ringed seal population was at 190,000 in the beginning of the 20
th
century, but pollution from
organochlorines which make up pesticides, and intense hunting caused the population to drop
to 5000 seals in the 1970s. These Baltic ringed seals inhabit 3 areas in the Baltic Sea, this
includes the Bothnian bay, Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga. Previous studies showed us that
future warming will cause massive reductions of the sea ice. This reduction should cause more
competition between the seals for rarer breeding ground, as these also allow for capturing food,
which in turn effect the weight and health of the pups, causing further population crashes.
Thus, through past findings, we set out to see if the breeding ice in the Baltic Sea was a limiting
factor for historical population sizes, and if it plays a role in a future model where global
temperatures have risen.
To get the results, we first performed Aerial surveys to get population sizes of Baltic
ringed seals from the regions of Bothnian Bay, Gulf of Finland, and Gulf of Riga. Afterwards, we
produced detailed ice-charts as Baltic ringed seals need packed ice for breeding. We then
connected the sizes of the sea ice to the breeding month (January-February) and using some
funky math we could see how much the sea ice changes in the future. We also put in the growth
rate, fertility rate, survival rate, initial population size, and territory sizes into a program based
on MATLAB. Through the program, a simulation was generated showing shocking results.
All 1000 simulations at varying high future temperatures, show that by 2100, the
Bothnian bay, Gulf of Finland, and Gulf of Riga, all have reduction in breeding ice that will result
in declined growth rates in Baltic ringed seals. Most importantly, the Gulf of Riga population will
have the most devastating changes as the winters get hotter. There will only be 75 seals
remaining in 2100. This is down from 2500 seals present as of 2011. In total, there will only be
16% of Baltic ringed sea seal as there were in the early 20
th
century. The model we made
showed us the impacts of decreasing ice coverage causing potential extirpation of seals from
Arsal Khan
2022-02-13
Gulf of Riga. This impacts other landlocked seals as well, such as the Caspian seals.
Compounded by other effects such as organochlorine pollution, landlocked seals are in danger,
and we must do what we can to mitigate global warming.
Words: 594 (not including questions below)
Questions: (Not sure if we were to put them in this draft)
Q1: So, what brings you here?
(Brings out introduction)
Q2: Does the sea ice have any benefits to the pups?
Q3: How come the seals in Arctic and the Baltic Sea never meet?
Q4: How did you conduct your study; did you end up using past records people had on these
seals or did you create your own data?
Q5: What were the shocking results?
Q6: What can we learn from this study
Your preview ends here
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