Milestone three-Weather Analysis

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103

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Dec 6, 2023

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1 6-2 Final Project Milestone Three: Weather Analysis Leticia Pollard-Torres Southern New Hampshire University PHY 103 Dr. Lynda Folts August 6, 2023

2 6-2 Final Project Milestone Three: Weather Analysis A humid subtropical climate prevails at the proposed development site. Precipitation is abundant throughout the year, with most rainfall occurring during the summer months. Winters are mild with temperatures rarely dropping below freezing. Humidity levels are high throughout the year, making the climate uncomfortable for extended periods of time. As part of this report, we will analyze the weather patterns and climate of this area by referring to weather data and climatographs provided by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Given the climograph information the average annual temperature is around 15 degrees Celsius, which is about 59 degrees Fahrenheit. The lowest temperature occurs during the month of January at around 41 degrees and the warmest temperatures are between June and August. The average precipitation during and after the winter months is about 9-19 cm (7.48 in) with the most falling during November. Summer brings the least amount of precipitation in that area with an average low of around 3 cm (1.18 in). Rain is part of life in autumn and winter. It is estimated that 90 percent of the region's annual rainfall occurs between October and May. The Polar Front Theory created by Vilhelm Bjerknes, studied the "formation, growth, and dissipation of midlatitude cyclones, storms that form along a front at middle and high latitudes." (Aguado & Burt, 2014). The systems observed were "forming along a boundary separating polar air from warmer air to the south" (Aguado & Burt, 2014). The region in question shows the polar effect and high precipitation during fall, winter, and spring. When the Pacific front pushes into the region during these freezing air events, then rain is likely to fall. It is likely that the warm south winds will not be strong enough to sweep away the

3 frigid air at first. The freezing rain, sleet, and sometimes snow is caused by rain falling into the shallow layer of subfreezing air. Storms affecting this area: Our study is conducted in Lane County, Oregon, where there are many windstorms, thunderstorms, and snowstorms. During winter storms, the area experiences intense winds exceeding hurricane force. Around the Cascade Range and Foothills, snow and ice storms are more frequent in the eastern portion of the county, and less common in the valleys. Lane County is prone to thunderstorms throughout the year. During winter and spring, thunderstorms produce small hail and gusty winds. However, during the summer, these storms can produce large hail, high winds, and a lot of lightning. It is common for thunderstorms to produce funnel clouds, but tornadoes are extremely rare. There is no doubt that spring rain, summer thunderstorms, and fall snow are all significant contributors to the total amount of precipitation each year. Extreme precipitation event: Historical records indicate that a total of 12.09 inches of rainfall fell on November 2, 1917. In Lane County, Oregon, where the study was conducted, there was a possibility that this event was caused by a severe thunderstorm that produced heavy rainfall and flooding. Recurrence interval for Extreme Precipitation Events: To calculate a recurrence interval, the total number of years in the data, plus one, is divided by the number of extreme precipitation events. The formula for this study is as follows: T=(n+1)/m

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4 Recurrence interval = (95+1)/10=9.6. As a result, an extreme precipitation event of significant magnitude occurs once every 10 years in this region. This recurrence interval is used to assess the probability of the occurrence of future extreme precipitation events in the region. Such information can be used to plan for and mitigate against the effects of such events. Impact of proposed development: We can find large rivers with small tributaries in Lane County that are subject to annual flooding. The flooding of these waterways poses a threat to life and safety as well as property damage. There are numerous large rivers in the area, including the McKenzie River, the Willamette River, the Siuslaw River, the Row River, and Lake Creek. There are approximately 140,000 acres of floodplain land in Lane County. Among all the counties in the state, Lane County has more river miles of floodplain than any other. As a result of this information and the data collected on extreme precipitation events in this region, we can conclude that the proposed development may be negatively affected by these events. Flooding can lead to erosion of infrastructure and property. Maintaining and repairing the infrastructure may be an exorbitant expense for government agencies and residents of Lane County. Instability of the land may cause landslides and slope failures during heavy rains, making development of the proposed area more difficult. The proposed development site should be subjected to preliminary measurements by government agencies such as FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency). FEMA can provide resources for flood mapping, risk assessment, and other emergency management services. Additionally, accurate land surveying and soil testing should be conducted to determine the best locations for construction. Finally,

5 developers should consider building infrastructure that is resilient to flooding and other natural disasters. References  Aguado, E., & Burt, J. E. (2014). Understanding Weather and Climate (7th ed.). Pearson Education (US). https://mbsdirect.vitalsource.com/books/9780133943672  Cook, L. (2011). Lane County Hazard Analysis. City of Coburg Oregon/ Lane County Sheriff’s Office. https://www.coburgoregon.org/sites/default/files/fileattachments/community/page/1301/2 011lchazardanalysisandriskassessment.pdf  Lutgens, F. K., Tarbuck, E. J., & Tasa, D. G. (2021). Foundations of Earth Science (9th ed.). Pearson Education (US). https://mbsdirect.vitalsource.com/books/9780135851616  Rockey , Clinton C. D. (2023) . Climate in Eugene. (5 th Rev.). National Weather Service Forecast Office, Portland. https://www.weather.gov/media/pqr/climate/ClimateBookEugene/EUGclimatebook.pdf  Recurrence interval . (n.d.). Teaching Quantitative Literacy. https://serc.carleton.edu/quantskills/methods/quantlit/RInt.html#:~:text=Where%20there %20is%20no%20associated,Determining%20Earthquake%20Probability%20and %20Recurrence.

Milestone three-Weather Analysis

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