MM_Lab 1 Energy and Climate Change DRAFT

GEOS 102 Our Changing Environment: Climate and Ecosystems Lab 1, 2023/4 W2 – N Hewitt 1 Lab 1 - Energy and Climate Change Megan Massa 29900909 Due: Friday, Feb 2, 2024 5:00 pm – The submission portal will remain open until midnight, but we cannot answer questions after normal business hours (5 pm), so please plan to submit on time or be prepared to accept responsibility for any technical errors you encounter. Objectives: ● Understand all components in the surface radiation budget ● Identify environmental variables that affect components in the radiation budget ● Calculate net radiation and albedo ● Explain annual patterns and trends in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and global efforts to address these. ● Optional: Explain the concept of a carbon footprint and the factors that contribute to it Total marks: 27 Instructions: Read the lab carefully. Content included in this assignment covers Friday, Week 1 to Monday, Week 4 (inclusive). Your textbook (chapters are listed under the Course Schedule on Canvas) and lectures will provide the required background. All answers should be filled out in Canvas. We recommend that you download this handout, create responses in a word doc or on paper, then fill in answers online. Please double-check your answers on Canvas before submitting! Provide answers to TWO decimal places where appropriate (Canvas will not accept units, so you may omit these from your answers). While you may use any spreadsheet program (Microsoft Excel, Open Office, Google Sheets ), we recommend Excel, free to all UBC students via the student software site. PART 1: Daily Radiation Budgets [12 marks] Background Context * Energy derived from the Sun in the form of electromagnetic radiation is fundamental to all Earth systems, including weather and climate. Radiation emitted by the sun is termed shortwave radiation, while radiation emitted by the Earth is termed longwave radiation. Longwave radiation from the Earth is in the middle- to thermal-infrared part of the electromagnetic spectrum, reflecting the cooler temperature of the Earth relative to the Sun. When we measure shortwave and longwave radiation at the surface of the Earth, we describe it as incoming (downwelling) if it comes from or through the atmosphere, and outgoing (upwelling) if it leaves from the Earth's surface.

GEOS 102 Our Changing Environment: Climate and Ecosystems Lab 1, 2023/4 W2 – N Hewitt 2 Shortwave Radiation: Insolation arrives at the top of the atmosphere, where it may be transmitted, scattered, reflected, or absorbed by the atmosphere. Shortwave radiation that reaches the surface of the Earth can also be reflected, absorbed, or transmitted (only through water).  The amount that is reflected depends on the nature of the surface. The reflectivity of a surface can be expressed by calculating the proportion of reflected (outgoing) shortwave radiation to incoming shortwave radiation. This value is the albedo of the surface.

GEOS 102 Our Changing Environment: Climate and Ecosystems Lab 1, 2023/4 W2 – N Hewitt 4 Answer the following questions for the graph of Fort Peck, MT: Q2. Name 2 variables that could affect the value of SW↓ and SW ↑ [2] 1 How much solar radiation comes in can be affected by things like clouds, and the time of day (ex. angle of incidence, amount of energy) could also affect the value of SW↓ and SW↑. Q3. Why do SW ↓ and SW ↑ have similar (if not the same) values between 3 and 11 UTC? [1] The similarity in values is due to the graph showing that 3 and 11 UTC is roughly 8pm-4am; its night and early morning, therefore there is no sunlight. Q4. Why is LW↑ greater than LW ↓? [1] 2 As shown on the graph, upwelling infrared increases more dramatically than downwelling infrared as more downwelling solar is absorbed by the Earth’s surface compared to the atmosphere, thus emitting more LW↑ compared to LW↓. 1 Shortwave is also denoted by “K”, e.g., K↓ or K↑. We will use SW and K interchangeably. Get used to both. 2 Longwave is also sometimes denoted by “L”, e.g., L↑ or L↓. We will use these interchangeably. See Endnotes.

GEOS 102 Our Changing Environment: Climate and Ecosystems Lab 1, 2023/4 W2 – N Hewitt 5 Q5. Describe the diurnal pattern of total net radiation (Q*), and state which component of the radiation budget exerts the most control over Q*. [2] Q* represents the net radiation balance at the Earth's surface, considering both incoming and outgoing radiation. The diurnal pattern of the total net radiation is often influenced the most by the incoming shortwave radiation from the Sun. This is because the amount of solar radiation received during the day significantly influences the surface temperature and the overall energy balance. Desert Rock, NV Q6. ( upload a screenshot of graph, acquired by following the above instructions (Accessing the SURFRAD dataset), to canvas ) Q7. State 2 differences between the two sites and suggest some reasons for these differences in terms of climate and environment. [2] Most notably, Desert Rock, Nevada has an overall steeper increase and decrease of downwelling solar. As shown on the graph above, Desert Rock also has steeper increases of upwelling solar and upwelling infrared. This can be attributed to the fact that Nevada’s climate consistently sees extreme heat in the summer with

GEOS 102 Our Changing Environment: Climate and Ecosystems Lab 1, 2023/4 W2 – N Hewitt 7 Photosynthesis, fossil fuels/combustion processes, volcanic eruptions, respiration

GEOS 102 Our Changing Environment: Climate and Ecosystems Lab 1, 2023/4 W2 – N Hewitt 8 Click on the “data” tab in the NOAA web-site listed above; Obtain the files with the annual mean data (“Mauna Loa CO 2 annual mean data” in parts per million, “ppm”) and the annual growth rate data (“Mauna Loa CO 2 annual mean growth rates” – this represents change in CO 2 from one year to the next, reported as ppm/year). Click on ‘CSV’ next to the file name to download. Familiarize yourself with these two tables. Q11. With the table for annual mean data, find the most recent annual mean atmospheric CO 2 concentration at Mauna Loa (i.e., for 2023 ). By what percent has the atmospheric CO 2 concentration increased from the pre-industrial value of 280 ppm ? Enter only the numerical response in whole numbers to 2 decimals, since Canvas will not accept units. [1] Annual mean atmospheric CO2 concentration for 2023: 421 The atmospheric CO2 concentration increased from the pre-industrial value (421-280)/280 x 100 = by 50 Q12. Watch the film on “History of Atmospheric Carbon dioxide from 800,000 ybp to 2022” at: https:// www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/history.html . Focusing on the data shown on the left figure (snapshot, below) from about 0-2 minutes of the film, explain what is being portrayed. Also: Can you explain why there is so much more variation in values at latitudes 30°N and higher than those south of the equator? See clock to the right of the graph for year and month – you may need to play the film a couple of times to become familiar with the trends) [2] It seems that during the months of October into the new year until April, the data climbs up and creates a peak, whereas from April to October, it dives down and creates the steep dips in the graph. The graph is displaying the pattern of atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm) at different latitudes of the globe. There is likely much more land vegetation in latitudes

GEOS 102 Our Changing Environment: Climate and Ecosystems Lab 1, 2023/4 W2 – N Hewitt 10 Extent. These variables are critical indicators of human impact on climate and affected systems. The variables are used to compute various Climate Change Indices which are typically a single metric or number calculated annually to show accumulated change over time. Here, we will ignore the index and examine the sorts of data it is derived from. Open the Excel spreadsheet. Create time-series (line) graphs to illustrate the variables. Because the variables are measured on different numerical scales, I suggest you either construct: i) four separate line graphs, one for each variable , or ii) three graphs , the first with CO 2 ; the second with Global Mean Sea Level, and the third with Global Avg. Temp. and Average. Arctic Sea Ice Extent. Your TA will help you with the “line graph” feature in Excel. For general graphing instructions, refer to the handout on Constructing Line Graphs (posted in Canvas) or consult your TA in lab. Note that: if you choose option ii), you will have a secondary y-axis on the last graph: one, on the left for the first variable (e.g., Global avg. temp.), the second on the right, for the other variable, e.g., Average. Arctic sea ice extent (e.g., see Fig. 1 below). Remember, time is always your x-axis variable in a time- series graph. The following Excel help tutorial will help with adding secondary y- axes: https:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-mB4I16GC8 1 st Y-axis 2 nd Y-axis Fig 1: Example of graph with secondary y-axis. Accessed from: https:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=viD-WVEK_s0 Present your graphs together (e.g., side by side; one on top of the other) so you can easily compare trends among the variables. Be sure to include a title, axis labels indicating units of measurement and, if you have more than one series per graph, a legend to indicate which is which. Place the graphs (copy and paste each) into a Word document and convert to pdf. If you are unable to convert to pdf, you may submit your Word doc. Follow the prompts (click ‘browse computer’, select your file, etc.) to attach to the electronic submission in Canvas. [3]

GEOS 102 Our Changing Environment: Climate and Ecosystems Lab 1, 2023/4 W2 – N Hewitt 11 Q14. Looking at sea surface height change (represents change relative to the 1993-2008 average), comment on the pattern over time (direction, magnitude, variability)? How are sea surface height trends related to the other 3 variables, if at all? Explain any relationships in terms of underlying processes of cause-effect [2]. You may be interested to view the animation at: https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2614/25-years-of-global-sea- level-data-and-counting/. The overall trend in the graph shows a somewhat steady increase of global mean sea level until around 2012, where the graph starts to vary with different dips and

GEOS 102 Our Changing Environment: Climate and Ecosystems Lab 1, 2023/4 W2 – N Hewitt 13 Q15. Calculate the percent change in temperature that occurred between an earlier year and the last year in the time sequence, as follows (you will compute this using 2 different ‘earlier’ years) [1]: 2007 to 2019: (14.55-14.52)/14.52 x 100 = 0.21% 2013 to 2019: (14.85-14.58)/14.58 x 100 = 1.85% Q16. Is comparing the percentage of change between individual years a good way to assess temporal trends in the variable temperature? Why/why not? What would be a better temporal scale for this variable? [2] Depends; for an analysis of differences in temperature just between two years, comparing the percent change is an affective assessment. But in the context of a better temporal scale, it would be beneficial to analyze a broader timescale as opposed to just two individual years, for example a decade. This would smooth out any short-term fluctuations and give a better analysis of persistent temporal trends. Part 3 Global Policy vs Action [3 points] In Nov-Dec 2023, nation states and other communities gathered in the host country for COP28 , where, among other things, they revisited their pledges toward the goals the Paris Agreement to keep global temperature increase below the 1.5 (more on whether that will soon be breached in lecture!). Q 17. Go to the Climate Action Tracker 2030 Emissions Gaps (updated Dec 2023, after the most recent COP) here, https://climateactiontracker.org/media/images/CAT_2023- 12_Graph_EmissionsGaps2030.original.png and in the endnotes, Fig. 3. You can find details at: https://climateactiontracker.org/global/cat-emissions-gaps/ ) Explain what the figure shows. That is, the information and/or data presented, units, etc., and its derivation – e.g., is it likely to be measurement data, estimated, or both depending on which time period, etc. [1 point]. The figure shows how our current policies regarding climate action and reduction of greenhouse gasses compare to the goal established in the Paris Agreement. It portrays measurements of historical greenhouse gas levels (GtCO2e/year) from 1990 until around 2020, where it then shows the line of progress that we are supposed to make according to the Paris Agreement, targets that were set, and current policy progress. Now briefly explain what is meant by the 2030 Target Gap and how it compares to the 2030 Implementation Gap – Comment quantitatively and explain the significance of

GEOS 102 Our Changing Environment: Climate and Ecosystems Lab 1, 2023/4 W2 – N Hewitt 14 this difference in policy terms (what does this tell us or is it trying to communicate?) [1 point – 2 total] The 2030 Target Gap refers to the difference between the target or pledged levels of emission reductions by the year 2030, and the goal of the Paris Agreement level. The 2030 Implementation Gap refers to the difference between the actions that countries have pledged or committed to taking by 2030 and the actual implementation of those actions on the ground. This gap assesses the effectiveness of policies and measures in achieving the stated targets. It highlights what is needed to meet global climate goals (in the Paris Agreement) and the current trajectory of emissions. Quantitatively, the size of these gaps can be measured in terms of greenhouse gas emissions (GtCO2e), or any other metrics outlined in the climate agreement. Q 18. Now have a look at this figure created one year earlier (Nov 2022), just after the previous COP27 meeting. It is here: https://climateactiontracker.org/media/images/CAT_2022- 11_Graph_2100WarmingProjection.original.png , and in the endnotes, Fig. 4. This graph extends the projection to 2100, and reassesses the 2030 gap. Compare the emissions 2030 gap reported here, a year ago, and compare to the most recent 2023 projection. What is the emissions gap in Nov 2022, how does it compare to the one in Dec 2023? Provide 2 explanations for any differences you find in the implementation gap. [1] The recent 2023 emissions gap has a 1 GtCO2e increase compared to the November 2022 gap. The bottom end of the implementation gap has changed from a 23-27 GtCO2e in 2022 to 24 GtCO2e in 2023. This difference could be explained by the fact that there are consistent shortfalls in action in regards to the climate crisis. It could also be explained by human activity

GEOS 102 Our Changing Environment: Climate and Ecosystems Lab 1, 2023/4 W2 – N Hewitt 16 Q* = (K↓ + L↓) – (L↑ + K↑) = (K↓ - K↑) + (L↓ - L↑), where: K↓ = incoming short-wave radiation from the Sun K↑ = short-wave radiation reflected by the surface L↓ = incoming long-wave radiation emitted by the atmosphere L↑ = out-going long-wave radiation emitted by the surface Remember that in the SURFRAD website, they refer to SW Out as upwelling solar; is SW In as downwelling solar radiation The albedo or reflectivity (α) of a surface refers to the proportion of incident short-wave radiation which is reflected by the surface and is computed as: α = K↑/ K↓ or α = SW out/ SW in Parts 2 and 3 Figures: Fig 2. Keeling curve, accessed Jan 5, 2024 at: https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/

GEOS 102 Our Changing Environment: Climate and Ecosystems Lab 1, 2023/4 W2 – N Hewitt 17 Fig. 3. 2030 Emissions Gaps and Warming Projections from Dec 2023, accessed Jan 5, 2024 at: https://climateactiontracker.org/global/cat-emissions-gaps/ Fig. 4. 2100 Warming Projections from Nov 2022. Emissions based on Nov 2022 projections and policies accessed Jan 5, 2024 at: https://climateactiontracker.org/media/images/CAT_2022- 11_Graph_2100WarmingProjection.original.png . ○