GPC_Kenya
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Nov 24, 2024
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Abstract
This paper explores Kenya's strategic positioning in today's global landscape characterized by
intense great power competition, emphasizing its geopolitical, economic, and strategic
significance. It outlines strategic imperatives for Kenya in light of global power competition
involving major players such as the United States, China, and Russia. Global power dynamics
are at play in various theaters, including Europe, the Middle East, the Indo-Pacific, and Africa.
These dynamics create both challenges and opportunities for Kenya. The paper suggests that
Kenya can capitalize on its geostrategic location, employ strategic ambiguity, and selectively
engage with global powers while projecting a non-aligned image to navigate this complex
landscape successfully. From a Neorealism perspective, the paper highlights the role of power as
the primary currency and the interplay between agency and structures in shaping global affairs,
emphasizing the importance of Kenya's in-depth understanding of these dynamics to secure its
interests effectively.
Key Words; Geopolitics, neorealism, strategy, competition, power
1
KENYA STRATEGIC IMPERATIVE HARNESSING OPPORTUNITIES AMIDST
GLOBAL POWER COMPETITION
Introduction The aftermath of the USSR's collapse witnessed the United States ascending to a central position,
guided by the principles of exceptionalism. This transition spurred debates among neo-liberalists,
presaging a departure from neorealist perspectives on conflicts. These discussions marked a shift
in the conceptualization of conflicts, moving away from the traditional neorealist emphasis on
states as the primary actors to a framework where individuals, norms, and human rights took
precedence. However, the resurgence of great power competition across global theaters has
challenged the neoliberalist notion of collective security, giving rise to competitive security
paradigms. These developments in various theatres bear significant global implications,
including their impact on Kenya. In the European theatre, the Russo-Ukrainian war underscored the reinvigorated conflict between
the US and Russia, which rekindles the memory of the Cold War as Russia, through Putins, neo-
Eurasianism goal, wants to push NATO's activities from its backyard. This is by taking
advantage of the anthropological connection of the Russian ethnic groups in Georgia and
Ukraine's Donbas region to delegitimize those governments, exploiting the gaps in the corrupt
leadership and poor development to develop narratives coined around the 'Russian motherland.'
Also, attacking Ukraine when NATO and the EU are divided over interests, such as the increase
in energy prices, among other commodities, gives him an advantage. For instance, Angela
Merkel's commitment to the Nord Stream Two project made Germany vulnerable to internal
distress. In tandem with this, Russia has reinvigorated ties with North Korea, China, India, Iran, and other
countries, notably in the Global South. This poses strategic importance as these allies have been
poised to counterbalance the West. For instance, the conflict in the Koreas and the Sino-
Taiwanese brewing conflict may impact NATO's attention. Moreover, the Iranian activities in the
Middle East concern the West and have already manifested the cauldron boils.
By threatening invasion and nuclear war, the former Soviet states have, on the contrary,
expressed the desire to join NATO to benefit from the collective defense. The use of threat has
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thus been counterproductive and has further alienated Russia in the region. With the zero-sum
strategy that does not compromise, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Finland, Georgia, Sweden and
Ukraine have applied for NATO membership (Alberque, 2022)
. If approved, Russia's sphere of
influence will further shrink.
The United States and NATO allies have consistently supported Ukraine within this theater,
while Turkey's stance remains uncertain. Simultaneously, China has capitalized on the conflict,
diplomatically backing Russia and allegedly providing arms assistance. Furthermore, countries
such as South Africa, Egypt, Iran, and the UAE have been perceived as supporters of Russia,
even facing allegations of clandestine arms aid. In contrast, Israel, a US ally in the region,
appears to be among the few supporters of Ukraine, albeit in implicit ways, particularly by
supplying anti-aircraft equipment.
Moreover, in the Indo-Pacific theatre, China and the US are the key players with the former's
China's Wolf Warrior diplomacy as worrying the latter. Since 2013 Xi Jinping took over the
Chinese presidency, the state's diplomacy has changed from being conservative, passive, and
low-key to being assertive, proactive and high profile. This has been dubbed 'wolf-warrior
diplomacy.' With a crackdown in corruption, global economic networks through projects such as
the Belt and Road Initiative adopted in 2013, China's economy has risen steadily. C
oupled with increased nationalism, modernization of the military and deployment in the Asia
Pacific and the horn of Africa through its Belt and Road Initiative, the US has been worried. The
Sino Taiwanese conflict presents a pawn as underscored by Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan
(Xiying, 2021). China has also encroached economically into the former Soviet states which is
undeniably a cause of alarm for the Kremlin (Mankoff, 2022) but with the US as the common
enemy, the two are bound together.
In addition, coupled with increased nationalism, modernization of the military and deployment in
the Asia Pacific and the horn of Africa, the US has been worried. The Sino Taiwanese conflict
presents a pawn as underscored by Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan (Xiying, 2021). China has also
encroached economically into the former Soviet states which is undeniably a cause of alarm for
the Kremlin (Mankoff, 2022) but with the US as the common enemy, the two are bound together.
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The BRICS, China's brainchild, is aligned towards reestablishing a new global world order and
looks at the West as the recipe for chaos. Their voting pattern at the United Nations General
Assembly (UNGA) on the Russo-Ukrainian conflicts is indicative of the alliance's posture on the
West. The members have also criticized the West on the double standards with issues regarding
the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, Syria, Africa among other countries
(Roberts, 2019)
.
In addition, the Asia Pacific region has also witnessed increased activities. Australia, Zealand,
Japan, Republic of Korea and Singapore (Khurana, 2019) who are US allies continue enforce
sanctions on Russia. With China in close proximity, this is conceptualized as a quid pro quo
move through which they will benefit from NATO protection. In addition, Military exercises in
the region by the Quadrilateral Security Triangle whose member states include the US, Japan,
India and Australia have been perceived by China as an extension of 'NATO mentality'. Also, an
Australian, UK and the US trilateral pact (AUUKUS) which was formed in September 2021 has
been viewed as a counterbalance to the Chinese military power in the region. Finnaly, Gaza Israel conflict highlight the is the contemporary issue in the Middle Eat theatre.
Notably, Israel and Iran have been foes and Iran has been providing training to insurgent groups
in various regions, including Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. These groups serve as
proxies for Iran's interests. The killing of Iranian scientists might have been a motive for Iran to
seek revenge through Hamas, under the guise of supporting the Palestinian cause. Additionally,
Iran may use these insurgent groups as part of its containment strategies against Israel.
Conversely, Looking beyond viewing the conflict as solely a Palestinian cause, it's conceivable
to see it as expanding our perspective beyond the notion of the conflict being solely a Palestinian
cause, it becomes evident that it can be interpreted as an integral component of an Iranian
containment strategy
The areas where these insurgent groups are active, namely Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Gaza,
and even within Iran itself, collectively form a significant operational theatre for these proxy
activities. With the US involvement, there is potential for these theatres to be more involved as
Iran is likely to use the insurgent group to counteract the US and Israel.
Morover, there have been unverifed mentioning of of Russia's involvement, although it's
important to note that these claims are yet to be verified. It is alleged that Israel implicit support
to Ukraine by offering anti-air military equipment support and the Jewish background of
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Ukraine's President Zelenski has garnered attention in the Israeli media. Hints of potential
Russian involvement lend credence to the idea that there is a deliberate effort to redirect global
attention away from the European theater and towards the Middle East, thereby placing Ukraine
in a precarious position.
Morover, implications to the United States are abound with the most notable being the splits of
the U.S. war efforts between the Middle East Theatre and Europe, which could potentially reduce
pressure on Russia, stretch the US resources and render her allies more vulnerable
. Does this
reinforce the assertion that it is a ploy by Russia to weaken the US? Morover, with the upcoming
U.S. Elections, public opinion and perceptions about these international conflicts become of
paramount importance in shaping policies and strategies. Nevertheless, its effects will compound
Africa's already expresiced effects from the Russo-Ukrainian war.
Implication and Way Forward for Kenya
Amidst the complexities of global power competition, neorealism asserts the primacy of states as
central actors, diminishing the roles of individuals, institutions, and norms. This viewpoint
underscores the foundational role of states in shaping international relations, providing a basis
for analyzing the implications for Kenya and its strategic responses.
A fundamental tenet of neorealism is the concept of power as currency in international politics.
Power manifests across diplomatic, informational, military, and economic dimensions,
encompassing both tangible and intangible aspects. These dimensions of power are interrelated,
each reinforcing the others. In Kenya's context, this implies that the country's diplomatic
endeavors, information strategies, military capabilities, and economic stability collectively
contribute to its overall power and influence on the global stage.
Neorealism also highlights the dialectical relationship between agency and structure. Weaker
states often align themselves with major powers, some of which may harbor revisionist
ambitions. This phenomenon, known as "bandwagoning," reflects the strategic choices weaker
states make to protect their interests and security within the existing power structure. For Kenya,
this calls for a nuanced approach to its alliances and partnerships, considering both its objectives
and the intentions of the major powers it engages with.
In light of these complexities, the central question is: What are the implications of these global
dynamics for Kenya, and how can Kenya strategically leverage these power plays to its
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advantage?
To address this, a comprehensive analysis can be undertaken through the DIME
(Diplomatic, Informational, Military, and Economic) framework, approached from a neorealist
perspective. In this context, Kenya can seek to enhance its diplomatic initiatives, harness its
information and communication capabilities, strengthen its military capacities, and foster
economic partnerships to bolster its position in the global power competition, all while adhering
to the core principles of neorealism, which emphasize the central role of states in international
power dynamics.
Diplomacy
The Russo-Ukrainian War has elevated Africa's diplomatic significance due to its resource
wealth and the strategic demand for diplomatic support. In this context, both Russia and the
United States have actively courted Kenya for diplomatic backing. However, Kenya's alignment
seems to incline toward the United States, as demonstrated by increased grants, a more
accommodating stance on LGBT issues, an area where the U.S. leads, and potential participation
in law enforcement operations in Haiti. This alignment has led some to view Kenya as aligning
with U.S. interests.
On the contrary, this alignment holds the potential to shape Kenya's relationships within the East
African region. It's worth noting that Uganda, Tanzania, and Ethiopia, Kenya's neighboring
countries, appear to be inclined toward an Eastern alignment. However, it's crucial to underscore
Kenya's historical significance in the region, where it has traditionally occupied a central role.
This leads us to a pivotal question: Could this divergence in alignment have an impact on
Kenya's position and influence in the region?
Furthermore, in the context of the Israel-Gaza conflict, Kenya has adopted a position in support
of Israel, which stands in contrast to the African Union's position favoring the Gazans. Despite
Kenya's prominent role in Pan-African diplomacy, this departure from the AU's stance raises
concerns about the potential for Kenya to face diplomatic isolation.
Moreover, in the context of the Israel-Gaza conflict, which brings Iran into sharp focus, Kenya
faces a diplomatic dilemma. Despite Kenya's positive diplomatic relations with Iran, the conflict
complicates the delicate balance Kenya must maintain between Iran, Israel, and the United
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States. Furthermore, Kenya's support for Israel has the potential to strain its traditionally friendly
relations with Arab countries like the UAE and Egypt. The alignment of the Muslim population in Kenya with the Palestinians in Gaza may indeed
have implications for Kenya's counter-terrorism efforts. Furthermore, the alignment of Al-
Shabaab with the Palestinians and their vow to avenge the Israel conflict adds complexity to
Kenya's counter-terrorism endeavors.
Amidst these dynamics, China has maintained a relatively stable relationship with Kenya, even
as it competes with the United States on the global stage. However, Kenya's alignment with the
U.S. raises the potential for diplomatic challenges. As China increases its investments in
infrastructure development in other African countries, notably Ethiopia, this may strain Kenya's
diplomatic relationship with China.
Informational The influence of U.S., Russian, and Chinese propaganda in Kenya is a complex and continually
evolving phenomenon. Each of these nations employs diverse strategies to advance their interests
and disseminate their narratives within the Kenyan context. Notably, the West emphasizes its
dedication to democracy, citing the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, Sino-Taiwanese tensions, and
inter-Korean conflicts as instances where democratic values are under threat.
Conversely, the East has argued that the West's conception of democracy is subjective and can be
wielded as a tool to exert control over other states. This perspective has led to strengthened
alliances with BRICS, a notable hallmark of their approach. Importantly, within the region, it's
worth noting that Kenya's neighbor, Ethiopia, is a member of BRICS, underscoring the region's
engagement with this alternative power bloc.In Kenya, this quest for democratic ideals manifests
in continued pressure to recognize the LGBT groups, which is quite unpopular within the African
cullure by the West, notably the US, In which Russia developed a counternarrative. Throughout its history, the United States has played a significant role in influencing public
opinion in Kenya. U.S. propaganda consistently emphasizes the promotion of democratic values,
human rights, and market-oriented economic policies. Information disseminated by American-
funded media outlets and NGOs aligns with these principles, with the objective of fostering
positive perceptions of the U.S. While some of these efforts are overt, others manifest more
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subtly and can be observed through initiatives such as educational exchange programs, cultural
events, and diplomatic activities.One of the notable issues that has generated controversy in
Kenya is the subject of LGBT rights, which is often perceived as conflicting with traditional
African values. Nonetheless, Kenya has maintained a relatively moderate stance on this matter. On the other hand, Russia's propaganda efforts in Kenya primarily revolve around countering
Conversely, Russia's propaganda efforts in Kenya primarily center on countering Western
influence and offering an alternative perspective on global events. This focus intensified in
parallel with the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. These efforts are often channeled through state-
sponsored news outlets like Russia Today (RT) and Sputnik, which disseminate narratives that
challenge mainstream Western viewpoints. Russia's messaging incorporates elements such as
conspiracy theories, disinformation, and content designed to undermine trust in Western
institutions.
Throughout history, particularly during the Cold War, Russia has pursued its own geopolitical
interests, including supporting specific leaders or factions in Kenya that align with Russian
policies. In the contemporary context, conduits such as parliamentary diplomacy serve as
avenues not only for Russia but also for its allies like Turkey and Iran, who are proponents of the
Palestinian conflict, to advance their objectives. The issue of LGBT rights is among the topics
where Russia has crafted a narrative to counter Western influence in Kenya.
In addition, China's propaganda efforts in Kenya are closely tied to its economic interests. The
Chinese government promotes its vision of development, emphasizing infrastructure projects,
trade agreements, and investments in Kenya. This can be seen through the presence of Chinese
state media outlets like Xinhua and the development of Confucius Institutes, which promote
Chinese culture and language. These activities may not necessarily be viewed as propaganda, but
they shape perceptions of China's role in Kenya.
Economy
At the moment, Kenya is contending with hurdles in achieving its economic goals as defined by
the current administration. These economic challenges have led to the emergence of potential
political conflicts, which have taken advantage of the strained economic situation. Importantly,
in the wider global context, factors such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Russo-
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Ukrainian conflict, and the recent Israel-Gaza conflict significantly contribute to this issue.
Nonetheless, China, the United States, and Russia each have interests in Kenya and engage in
counteractions within that context.
Through its ambitious "Belt and Road Initiative," China has made significant investments in
Kenya, particularly in critical infrastructure projects like the Standard Gauge Railway, highways,
and ports. Chinese companies are notably engaged in the construction, manufacturing, and
technology sectors. China's loans and investments have played a pivotal role in Kenya's
development, although concerns about the sustainability of the country's debt have been raised.
On the contrary, critics in the West contend that China uses loans as instruments of influence.
Nonetheless, Kenya continues to foster ties with China, even as Ethiopia, a BRICS member,
gains favor with China, while Kenya seems to maintain a more pro-Western orientation.
Moreover, the United States serves as a longstanding trade partner with Kenya, where American
companies are actively engaged in various sectors, spanning technology, energy, and agriculture.
The U.S. also provides foreign aid to Kenya through agencies like USAID, with a particular
focus on essential areas like healthcare, education, and governance. Notably, the Russo-
Ukrainian war has resulted in Kenya receiving increased grants from the U.S. and its Western
allies, including the UK.
Conversely, Russia's economic engagement with Kenya is less extensive when contrasted with
China and the U.S. While discussions about possible collaboration in areas like nuclear energy
have taken place, these plans are not as developed as those led by China and the United States.
Russia's primary focus has centered on arms sales, defense cooperation, and diplomatic relations.
Nevertheless, Russia's operations in Congo, a mineral-rich country and a member of the East
African Community (EAC) in which Kenya plays a central role, necessitate Kenya to proceed
with caution in its dealings.
Military
The United States maintains a well-established military partnership with Kenya, encompassing
military aid and training for Kenyan security forces, with a particular emphasis on areas like
counter-terrorism and peacekeeping. The U.S. has a significant military presence in the region,
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notably through the Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa, headquartered in Djibouti. This
task force collaborates closely with Kenyan forces to address regional security challenges.
Kenya has served as a base for U.S. military operations and its allies. Notable instances include
the Entebbe Raid, where Nairobi served as the exfiltration point for the Israeli operation, and the
Second Gulf War, where Camp Simba in Manda Bay played a crucial role. Additionally, Kenya
provides support to the UK for its bases. Given the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, this
geostrategic position as a gateway to the Middle East is likely to become even more prominent.. Conversely, China's expanding military presence in Kenya has intensified the focus on arms sales
and defense cooperation. The Kenyan military's adoption of Chinese weaponry and equipment
has played a pivotal role in their efforts to modernize and strengthen their armed forces. Notably,
Chinese military activities in Djibouti, aimed at securing the Sea Lines of Communication
(SLOAC) for economic interests, underscore the region's significance to China. Kenya's
geostrategic location further enhances its potential.
However, the question of whether these two potentially adversarial forces can coexist in Kenya
presents significant challenges. Nevertheless, Kenya remains the most promising opportunity
within the region due to its strategic location bordering the Indian Ocean, relative stability, robust
infrastructure, and religious tolerance, all of which could have implications for military
operations. It's worth noting that U.S. operations in the Middle East may encounter backlash
from countries that are pro-Palestine, especially those with Muslim-majority populations.
Contrasting Russia's military involvement in Kenya with the more comprehensive engagements
of China and the United States reveals an interesting dynamic. Russia's role in Kenya primarily
revolves around arms sales and the supply of defense equipment, reflecting a narrower military
footprint compared to its counterparts.
However, a potential source of conflict emerges from Russian operations in Congo, where
entities like the Wagner Group (a Russian mercenary organization) and the East African
Community Regional Forces (EACRF) are active. Kenya holds a prominent position in leading
EACRF activities, and this situation could lead to heightened tensions and the potential for
conflicts between Russia and Kenya.
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The complexities of this situation are compounded by Kenya's pro-West stance, aligning with the
United States and its Western allies, and Russia's vested interests in mineral exploitation within
the region. These dynamics create a multifaceted geopolitical landscape in which Kenya finds
itself, with implications for regional stability and global power dynamics.
Way Forward For Kenya
From a neorealist perspective, Kenya's diplomatic trajectory is intricately woven into the
multifaceted dynamics of global power competition, where power serves as the currency, and
both agency and structural forces interact in a dialectical manner. The geostrategic significance
of its location positions Kenya at the epicenter of great power interests. Within this intricate
global landscape, Kenya should craft a strategy that serves a dual purpose, aiming to advance
national interests while effectively safeguarding sovereignty and avoiding backlash. Its core
elements should encompass adeptly leveraging its geostrategic position, engaging with global
powers based on specific interests, and resolutely upholding a policy of non-alignment as it
navigates the complex terrain of global power competition.
Furthermore, from a neorealist perspective, it is essential to acknowledge that in the realm of
global power competition, information holds substantial power. Foreign propaganda has the
potential to significantly sway public opinion, mold political decisions, and shape perceptions of
international events. In this context, it becomes imperative for Kenyan citizens, as well as
institutions and the government, to exercise discernment in critically evaluating and verifying
information from diverse sources while remaining vigilant regarding the underlying agendas that
may influence such narratives. Notably, the Kenyan government bears a crucial responsibility in
countering foreign media influence and disinformation, actively contributing to the maintenance
of a well-informed and healthy information environment that aligns with its national interests
and sovereignty.
In the realm of economic dynamics, it's essential to consider the neorealist perspective that while
overt economic rivalry may not manifest directly within Kenya's borders, global powers are
actively engaged in competition for influence, resource access, market presence, and political
leverage within the region. Each of these nations pursues its distinct interests and priorities,
resulting in instances of both convergence and divergence in their objectives. Within this
11
intricate context, Kenya, akin to other African nations, adopts a prudent approach in managing its
interactions with these global actors.
This approach allows Kenya to strategically align with its national interests and advance
economic progress while navigating the intricate landscape of global power competition. By
astutely leveraging its geostrategic positioning, Kenya can secure favorable economic
partnerships that enhance its domestic development and bolster its role in the region's economic
stability and growth. This diplomatic and economic balancing act is integral to safeguarding
Kenya's national interests in a world marked by dynamic power competition.
Furthermore, these global powers actively engage with Kenya's military, driven by a multifaceted
agenda that encompasses both security cooperation and economic considerations. As a sovereign
nation, Kenya's approach to managing these military relationships is marked by nuance and
strategy, where a delicate equilibrium between cooperation and diplomacy is meticulously
maintained to address precise security needs and achieve well-defined objectives. The intricate
and multifaceted character of these military interactions highlights the depth of complexity and
the profound significance of Kenya's role in the global military dynamics. This underscores the
imperative for a comprehensive and astute approach that takes into account the multifarious
nature of these partnerships while safeguarding national interests and security.
In conclusion, Kenya's path forward hinges on its ability to navigate its geostrategic position,
engage judiciously with global powers based on its interests, and uphold a commitment to non-
alignment. This approach is instrumental in harnessing the benefits of its strategic location and
its role as a vital player in regional and global dynamics, ultimately ensuring the advancement of
its national interests in a world marked by dynamic power competition.
Conclusion
In summary, Kenya's trajectory forward is fundamentally contingent upon its adept navigation of
its geostrategic positioning within the matrix of global power competition. The analytical rigor
lies in its ability to discern and selectively engage with global powers based on its distinct
national interests, all while steadfastly adhering to a policy of non-alignment. This strategic
approach is instrumental in capitalizing on the inherent advantages afforded by its strategic
location, cementing its status as a pivotal player in both regional and global dynamics.
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Ultimately, this calibrated strategy serves as the linchpin to the realization of Kenya's national
interests in a world characterized by ever-evolving and dynamic power competition, reinforcing
its position as a discerning and sovereign actor on the world stage.
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