BG_FNCE4040_Sample_MidtermExam2Sol

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Derivative Securities, Fall 2023 FNCE 4040, Sample Midterm Exam 2 Solutions FNCE 4040 Derivative Securities Sample Midterm Exam 2 Solutions Problem 1 — Oratio Dominica (40 points) 1. Short-answer questions. (a) The risk-neutral probability p that the stock goes up over the next period is always higher (i.e., more optimistic) than the true probability q . i. True ii. False (b) It is never optimal to exercise an American call option early (i.e., before the expiration date) if the underlying asset is not expected to pay any dividends before the expiration date. i. True ii. False (c) The ∆ of a call option i. is always larger than 1 ii. is always smaller than 1 iii. can be larger or smaller than 1 (d) Consider a stock price with annual volatility sigma of 65% and an annual risk-free rate of 6%. What is the state price of the down state π d in a binomial model where the stock price changes proportionally to its previous value and each period corresponds to three weeks? i. 0.593 ii. 0.472 iii. 0.526 Solution. (1+ r f ) = (1+0 . 06) 3 / 52 = 1 . 003367, u = e 0 . 65 3 / 52 = 1 . 169, d = 1 /u = 0 . 855. p = (1 + r f ) d u d = 47 . 18% π d = 1 p 1 + r f = 0 . 526 (e) The current price of AAPL is 177 and its annual volatility is 28%. The annual risk-free rate is 7%. If the AAPL price can only go up or down over the next month, what is the current price of an American put option with strike price 190 that expires in one month? Solution. u = e 0 . 28 1 / 12 = 1 . 084 and d = 1 /u = 0 . 922. Hence, S u = 191 . 90 and S d = 163 . 26. The payoff of the put option, max( K S T , 0), is therefore given by: P u = 0 and P d = 26 . 74. Given that (1 + r f ) = (1 + 0 . 07) 1 / 12 = 1 . 005654, the risk-neutral probability p is equal to p = (1 + r f ) d u d = 51 . 47% . The price today of the American put option is given by P 0 = max p × 0 + (1 p ) × 26 . 74 1 + r f , 190 177 = max(12 . 90 , 13) = 13 . Buffa-Garc´ ıa, Leeds School of Business Page 1 of 4
Derivative Securities, Fall 2023 FNCE 4040, Sample Midterm Exam 2 Solutions 2. Gold is trading for 100. Assume that it is expected to appreciate by 20% over the next year. You also know that the volatility of gold’s returns is 25%, and that the risk-free rate is 10%. (a) The price of a put option with a strike of K = 100 on gold with a one year maturity, according to the Black-Scholes model, is 5.63. (b) One should short 0.3063 units of gold, and lend 36.26. (c) The ∆ of the firm’s portfolio is 0 . 3063, so taking a long position in gold of 0.3063 units would make the portfolio ∆-neutral. Buffa-Garc´ ıa, Leeds School of Business Page 2 of 4
Derivative Securities, Fall 2023 FNCE 4040, Sample Midterm Exam 2 Solutions Problem 2 — Fifty-cents (30 points) 1. The most direct way to approach this problem is via risk-neutral probabilities (i.e. normalized state prices). In our problem we had ˆ p u = r d u d = 1 . 01 0 . 6 1 . 4 0 . 6 = 0 . 5125; ˆ p d = 0 . 4875 . Starting at expiration we note that by basic principles the values of the put will be given by the following table. 8.53 3.45 0.00 0.00 14.05 7.14 0.00 21.60 14.80 29.20 2. This problem was intended to go through a dynamic replication argument in full At each date t , we look for a portfolio that buys ∆ t units of the stock, and invest B t dollars in the bond, so that t S tu + B t 1 . 01 = P tu ; t S td + B t 1 . 01 = P td ; where S tu and P tu denote the prices of the underlying asset and the put in the up state (from node t ), and S td and P td denote the prices of the underlying asset and the put in the down state (from node t ). Solving one gets the following dynamic trading strategy: Deltas Cash positions -0.2651 -0.1276 0 21.79 12.38 0.00 -0.6025 -0.4405 32.13 25.64 -1.0000 39.60 3. The value of the put with a strike of 45 is 10.87, so the extra protection will cost Fifty-cents a bit more than 2. The value trees for the put with K = 45 is included below. Put tree 10.87 4.61 0.00 0.00 17.67 9.56 0.00 26.55 19.80 34.20 Solving as before for the replicating portfolio, one gets the following dynamic trading strategy: Deltas Cash positions -0.3263 -0.1707 0 27.18 16.56 0.00 -0.7082 -0.5893 38.91 34.31 -1.0000 44.55 Buffa-Garc´ ıa, Leeds School of Business Page 3 of 4
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Derivative Securities, Fall 2023 FNCE 4040, Sample Midterm Exam 2 Solutions Problem 3 — Trader Smurf (30 points) Note that the volatility of monthly returns from investing in mushrooms of 8.66% translates into an annual volatility of 30%. The following Greeks are relevant for this problem: Position in options 100 80 50 Type Calls Puts Puts Strike 100.00 90.00 95.00 Call price 7.4054 9.7790 9.7217 Put price 8.9955 2.6879 6.4322 Delta call 0.5114 0.7213 0.6066 Delta put 0 . 4886 0 . 2787 0 . 3934 Gamma 0.0196 0.0233 0.0189 Vega 27.0700 16.1226 26.1087 1. The value of the portfolio of Trader Smurf is, in 1000s: V = 100(7 . 41) 80(2 . 69) + 50(6 . 43) = 847 With the risk-free asset, his portfolio amounts to a little over 1.3 mill. 2. The delta of the portfolio Trader Smurf owns is ∆ = 100(0 . 5114) 80( 0 . 2787) + 50( 0 . 3934) = 53 . 77 Thus, all Trader Smurf needs to do is to short 53.77K mushrooms. 3. First note that the Γ of the portfolio of options is: Γ = 100(0 . 0196) 80(0 . 0233) + 50(0 . 0189) = 1 . 0365 Let x denote the number of units of the underlying asset Trader Smurf buys, and y the number of units of the K = 95 options that he needs to trade. Trader Smurf should hedge by creating a portfolio that is both delta and gamma neutral: ∆ = 53 . 77 + x + y ( 0 . 3934) = 0; Γ = 1 . 0365 + y (0 . 0189) = 0; so x = 75 . 4 and y = 55 . 1, i.e., Trader Smurf needs to sell all his holdings of the calls with K = 95 (and a few more, his portfolio has a long position of +50, he should end up at 5 . 1), as well as short 75 . 4 mushrooms. 4. Trader Smurf should hedge by creating a portfolio that is both delta and vega neutral. Let x denote the number of units of the underlying asset Trader Smurf buys, and y the number of units of the K = 95 options that he needs to trade. Trader Smurf should pick x and y such that ∆ = 53 . 77 + x + y ( 0 . 3934) = 0; vega = 2722 + y (26 . 1) = 0; so x = 94 . 8 and y = 104 . 2, i.e., Trader Smurf needs to sell all his holdings of the calls with K = 95 and short 54.2 more, as well as short 94 . 8 mushrooms. Buffa-Garc´ ıa, Leeds School of Business Page 4 of 4