FIN 350 Midterm Harford FALL 2022

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Apr 3, 2024

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Assume inflation of 4.2% APR, with monthly compounding Rates and cash flows are nominal unless stated otherwise. 8:30am Section Answer Key Page 1 of 5 1. You expect a nominal cash flow of $10,000 in 3 years. Your real discount rate is 6% APR, compounded monthly. What is the present value of the nominal cash flow? [5] You have real rate, but you need a nominal rate, so you need to use the inflation rate to get it. You can do this entirely in months with 36 months, or convert everything to EARs and do it in years. For the EAR approach: Real EAR ൌ ቀ 1 .06 12 ଵଶ 1 .06168, Inflation EAR 1 .042 12 ଵଶ 1 .04282 so nominal EAR ൌ ሺ 1.06168 ሻሺ 1.04282 ሻ െ 1 0.10714 𝑃𝑉 ൌ 10000 1.10714 7,368.75 2. You earn a nominal return of 12% APR, compounded monthly. If you invest $1000 today, how long will it take to grow to the point where it has a real value of $3000? [4] Here you have a nominal return and you need a real one. Again, you can do this in years or months. We’ll do it in months. The monthly inflation rate is 0.042/12 = 0.0035 and the monthly nominal return is 0.12/12 = 0.01, so the monthly real return is 1.01/1.0035 – 1 = 0.006477. Since any value today is both nominal and real, the $100 you invest today is already a real cash flow. So, you’re all set because you have a real PV, a real FV and a real rate to solve for n. 𝑛 ൌ ቎ 𝑙𝑛 ቀ 𝐹𝑉 𝑃𝑉 ln 1 ൅ 𝑟ሻ ቏ ൌ ቎ 𝑙𝑛 ቀ 3000 1000 ln 1 .006477 ቏ ൌ 170.17 𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ𝑠 3. You just purchased a $1000 par, 4% coupon bond (semi annual coupons) with exactly 3 years to maturity. You paid a price that implied a YTM of 5%. If you sell it for $980 immediately after collecting the next coupon, what total return did you earn? [4] If it’s priced at a YTM of 5%, that means its cash flows can all be discounted at that YTM and prodce its correct price. The cash flows for this bond are $20 every 6 months and $1000 at maturity. Since everything in the bond world is in 6 month periods, we have a YTM of 2.5% per six months, and six 6 month periods to maturity: 𝑃𝑉 ൌ 20 . 025 1 1 1.025 ൨ ൅ 1000 1.025 $972.46 If you sell it for $980 after collecting the next $20 coupon, then you bought the bond for $972.46, collected one $20 semi annual coupon and sold it for $980. Your total return is (($20+$980) $972.46)/$972.46 = 2.832% (over a 6 month period). Did you earn the 5% YTM? Why or why not? [3] No, you did not earn the YTM—your annualized return is actually 5.664%. You are only guaranteed to earn the YTM if you hold the bond to maturity and receive all the cash flows as promised. Since you sold the bond before maturity, your return was determined by how the bond’s price moved in between, and in this case it increased, so you had a higher return.
Assume inflation of 4.2% APR, with monthly compounding Rates and cash flows are nominal unless stated otherwise. 8:30am Section Answer Key Page 2 of 5 4. Why do credit spreads increase during recessions and economic crises? [5] Credit spreads reflect the risk of default of a bond. In crises and recessions, investors become less tolerant of default risk at the same time as the risk of a near term default increases, so they pay less for bonds with a significant risk of default. The lower prices for such bonds necessarily implies a higher yield to maturity based on those lower prices, and so the credit spread widens. 5. Assume that, starting in one year, you are able to invest $2,000 per year for 20 years and then increase it to $4,000 per year for 20 additional years. So, your year 1 through 20 investment will be $2,000 per year and starting in year 21, you will invest $4,000 per year. Your expected return on your investments is 8% per year. When you make the last investment 40 years from today, how much can you expect to have in your investment account? [10] You need to compute the FV of two separate 20 year annuities. For each, compute the PV and then move that PV to its FV using the appropriate number of years. Note that for the 1 st annuity, you will be going from year 1 to 40, so 40 years for the FV part, and for the second, you will be going from year 21 to 40, so 20 years for the FV part. 𝑃𝑉 ൌ 2000 . 08 1 1 1.08 ଶ଴ ൨ ൌ 19,636.29 െ െ൐ 𝐹𝑉 ସ଴ 19,636.29 1.08 ସ଴ 426,589.11 𝑃𝑉 ൌ 4000 . 08 1 1 1.08 ଶ଴ ൨ ൌ 39,272.59 െ െ൐ 𝐹𝑉 ସ଴ 39,272.59 1.08 ଶ଴ 183,047.86 The total will be 426,589.11 + 183,047.86 = 609,636.97 What will be the real value of your investment account 40 years from today? [4] Deflate it by 40 years x 12 = 480 months’ worth of inflation at 0.042/12 = 0.0035 per month : 𝟔𝟎𝟗 , 𝟔𝟑𝟔 . 𝟗𝟕 ሺ𝟏 . 𝟎𝟎𝟑𝟓ሻ 𝟒𝟖𝟎 𝟏𝟏𝟑 , 𝟗 54.22
Assume inflation of 4.2% APR, with monthly compounding Rates and cash flows are nominal unless stated otherwise. 8:30am Section Answer Key Page 3 of 5 Year: 0 1 2 3 IRR Project C 12 6 6 6 23% 6. You are evaluating the following projects (in $ millions): Year: 0 1 2 3 IRR Project A 30 15 15 15 23% Project B 18 18 4 14 29% a. If your opportunity cost of capital is 10%, what is the NPV of each project? [6] 𝑵𝑷𝑽 𝑨 ൌ െ𝟑𝟎 𝟏𝟓 𝟎 . 𝟏 ቈ𝟏 െ ൬ 𝟏 𝟏 . 𝟏 𝟑 ቉ ൌ $ 𝟕 . 𝟑𝟎𝑴 𝑵𝑷𝑽 𝑩 െ𝟏𝟖 ൅ 𝟏𝟖 𝟏 . 𝟏 𝟏 െ𝟒 𝟏 . 𝟏 𝟐 𝟏𝟒 𝟏 . 𝟏 𝟑 $ 𝟓 . 𝟓𝟖𝑴 b. Given all the information, if you could only do one project, explain how would you rank the two projects? [6] Project A is the better project if I can do only one because it generates the most value. Project B has a higher IRR, but that doesn’t translate into more value because it is a smaller scale project. c. Right before you commit, you are presented with Project C. If your only constraint is a total budget of $30 million, what would you do and why? [4] 𝑵𝑷𝑽 𝑪 ൌ െ𝟏𝟐 𝟔 𝟎 . 𝟏 ൤𝟏 െ ቀ 𝟏 𝟏 . 𝟏 𝟑 ൨ ൌ $ 𝟐 . 𝟗𝟐𝑴 . As the question states, my only constraint is a total budget of $30 million, so since it has a positive NPV, I would consider whether to take it in combination with B. If I use my total budget of $30 million to take both B and C, I would create total value of $5.58 + $2.92 = $8.50 million, which is more than I would create using the $30 million to fund project A ($7.30 million), so I would take B and C instead of A. Note this answer is still correct if you still thought A & B are mutually exclusive because you are not trying to take both A & B. 7. You can buy a machine for $50,000 due immediately and then two payments of $20,000 (due one year and two years from now). If your discount rate is 5%, what is the equivalent annual cost of this machine over its two year life? [8] To compute the EAC, first calculate the PV of the actual payments and then calculate the annual payment with the same PV: 𝑃𝑉 ൌ 50000 20000 1.05 20000 1.05 87,188.21 EAC 87,188.21 1 .05 1 . 05 1.05 46,890.24
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Assume inflation of 4.2% APR, with monthly compounding Rates and cash flows are nominal unless stated otherwise. 8:30am Section Answer Key Page 4 of 5 8. The following yields are on the yield curve: Maturity 6 months 1 year 1.5 years 2 years Yield 3% 4% 4.5% 5% All of the yields are quoted as APRs with semi annual compounding. a. Consider a 1 year zero coupon $1000 par corporate bond with a credit spread of 150 basis points. What is its price? [5] 150 basis point credit spread added on to the 4% 1 year rate is 5.5% (APR, semi annual compounding). The corresponding 6 month rate is .055/2 = .0275, and there are two 6 month periods in two years. 𝑃𝑉 ൌ 1000 1.0275 947.19 b. Would the YTM of a 1.5 year 5% coupon bond be more than, less than or equal to 4.5%? Why? [5] It would be less. The YTM will be a weighted average of the relevant spot rates where the weights are approximately proportional to the size of the cash flows. The cash flows for a 1.5 year 5% coupon bond will be 6 months 1 year 1.5 year 25 25 1025 So the relevant spot rates are 3%, 4% and 4.5%. The greatest weight will go to 4.5%, so the YTM should be close to, but less than 4.5% because of the 3 and 4% rates. c. Would the YTM of a 1.5 year 4% coupon bond be more than, less than, or equal to the YTM of a 1.5 year 8% coupon bond? Explain. [4] More than—because the 4% coupon bond’s coupon cash flows are smaller, the YTM calculation will put less weight on the lower rates, putting proportionately more weight on the par repayment (think of it like 20 vs. 1000 and 40 vs. 1000). Thus, while both YTMs will be close to and a bit less than 4.5%, the 4% coupon bond’s YTM will be a little closer to 4.5% and thus more. d. What is the current yield of a one year, 3% coupon bond with a price of $990? EXPLAIN whether the current yield is more than, less than, or equal to its YTM. [4] Current yield is just the total annual coupon payments divided by the price. So, a 3% coupon bond will pay a total of $30 over a year. Its current yield is 30/990 = 3.03%, but that will be less than its YTM, because its YTM will include what happens at maturity (not just the coupons). At maturity, the bond that you paid $990 for will repay $1000 in par, so you have locked in a small capital gain that is offset by low income in the meantime. Your YTM will incorporate both and will be more than the return based solely on the income.
Assume inflation of 4.2% APR, with monthly compounding Rates and cash flows are nominal unless stated otherwise. 8:30am Section Answer Key Page 5 of 5 9. You are considering introducing an upgraded product that has projected revenue of $10 million per year and expenses of $6 million per year for 3 years, after which you will shut down production. You will be able to use some of your existing equipment, but will need to purchase additional equipment as well. The existing equipment is fully depreciated, but its market value is $500,000. The new equipment will cost $2 million, and will be straight line depreciated over a 5 year life to zero. You plan to sell it for its book value at the end of the 3 rd year when you cease production. Inventory will increase immediately to $1.5 million from its current level of $1 million. It will further increase to $1.7 million in year 1 and will hold at that level in year 2. It will return to $1 million in year 3. Your discount rate for this project is 15% and your tax rate is 20%. Forecast the incremental free cash flows and calculate the NPV of the project. [20] w/out project 0 1 2 3 WC Level 1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1 WC Change 0.5 0.2 0 0.7 CF from Chg in WC 0.5 0.2 0 0.7 New Equipment: 0 1 2 3 Depr 0.4 0.4 0.4 BV 2 1.6 1.2 0.8 0 1 2 3 Rev 10 10 10 Exp 6 6 6 Depr 0.4 0.4 0.4 Taxable Inc 3.6 3.6 3.6 Tax 0.72 0.72 0.72 Net Income 2.88 2.88 2.88 Add back Depr 0.4 0.4 0.4 CF fr Chg in WC 0.5 0.2 0 0.7 CapEx 2 0.8 Opp Cost 0.4 FCF 2.9 3.08 3.28 4.78 𝑵𝑷𝑽 െ𝟐 . 𝟗 ൅ 𝟑 . 𝟎𝟖 𝟏 . 𝟏𝟓 𝟏 𝟑 . 𝟐𝟖 𝟏 . 𝟏𝟓 𝟐 𝟒 . 𝟕𝟖 𝟏 . 𝟏𝟓 𝟑 $ 𝟓 . 𝟒𝟎𝑴 BRIEFLY: Are there any missing considerations you would want to cover before finalizing your analysis? [3] Since this is a product upgrade, the main question would be one of cannibalization of the sales of the current model of the product.