Assignment 1

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Simon Fraser University *

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Feb 20, 2024

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Special Topics in International Financial Management Assignment 1 – 10 points Shrewsbury Herbal Products, located in central England close to the Welsh border, is an old-line producer of herbal teas, seasonings, and medicines. Its products are marketed all over the United Kingdom and in many parts of continental Europe as well. Shrewsbury Herbal generally invoices in British pound sterling when it sells to foreign customers in order to guard against adverse exchange rate changes. Nevertheless, it has just received an order from a large wholesaler in central France for £320,000 of its products, conditional upon delivery being made in three months’ time and the order invoiced in euros . Shrewsbury’s controller, Elton Peters, is concerned with whether the pound will appreciate versus the euro over the next three months, thus eliminating all or most of the profit when the euro receivable is paid. He thinks this is an unlikely possibility, but he decides to conduct an ad hoc analysis of the EUR/GBP historical exchange rate trend. 1. (3 points) In Excel, plot a line chart of the EUR/GBP historical exchange rates from January 1, 2022 to April 30, 2022 using data downloaded from http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/data.html . Comment on the exchange rates general trend. Do you noticed any extremes? If so, describe them and provide possible explanations of those extremes. If you were Mr. Peters, what assumptions would you make of the next 3 months? Answer either here (include the chart from Excel) or directly in Excel.
While the fluctuations in the chart may seem large, they are actually not very volatile currencies and the general variance is between 1.18 and 1.21 Euro per GBP. There are no discernible statistical extremes that would be considered an “outlier”. If I were Mr. Peters, I wouldn’t expect the currencies to have major fluctuations in the next three months. I would expect the variance to generally stay the same – between 1.18 and 1.21 Euro per GBP. Mr. Peters decided to contract the firm’s banker for suggestions about hedging the exchange rate exposure. He learns from the banker that the current spot exchange rate is EUR/GBP = 1.1660, thus the invoice amount should be €373,120. Mr. Peters also learns that the three-month forward rates for the pound and the euro versus the U.S. dollar are $1.3897/£1.00 and $1.1929/€1.00, respectively. The banker offers to set up a forward hedge for selling the euro receivable for pound sterling based on the €/£ forward cross-exchange rate implicit in the forward rates against the dollar. 2. (2 points) What would you do if you were Mr. Peters? The cross-exchange rate is $1.3897/$1.1929 = 1.1648 1.1648*£320,000 = €372,736 1.1660*£320,000 = €373,120 D = €373,120-€372,736 = €384 Mr. Peters would be giving up €384 if he accepted the hedge offered by the banker, 1/4/2022 1/7 /20 22 1/1 2/2 022 1/1 7/2 022 1/2 0/2 022 1/2 5/2 022 1/28/2022 2/2/2022 2/7 /20 22 2/1 0/2 022 2/1 5/2 022 2/18/2022 2/2 4/2 022 3/1 /20 22 3/4 /20 22 3/9/2022 3/14/2022 3/1 7/2 022 3/22/2022 3/25/2022 3/3 0/2 022 4/4 /20 22 4/7/2022 4/1 2/2 022 4/18/2022 4/2 1/2 022 4/26/2022 4/2 9/2 022 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.19 1.2 1.21 1.22 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.19 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.19 1.18 1.18 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.2 1.19 1.19 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.19 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.2 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.18 1.19 1.19 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.19 1.18 1.18 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.21 1.21 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.19 1.19 1.18 1.19 1.19 1.19 Rates
therefore, he should not hedge. Mr. Peters is importing Tea from India. The value of his import is £100,000 payment for which is due now but delivery will be in 3 months. Considering the liquidity condition of his firm, Mr. Peters will need to borrow this money from the bank now. He should be able to repay the bank in 3 months. The interest rates in UK and India are 4% and 8.5% respectively (compounded annually). The current spot rate is INR 92.8741/£1.00. The 3- month forward rate is INR 93.86285/£1.00. 3. (3 points) Will there be any difference if whether Mr. Peters (a) borrows in INR from an Indian bank, converts it to £ to make the payment, and pays back the loan through the forward contract or (b) to directly borrow £ from a UK-based bank to make the payment? Ir f = 8.5% pa UKr f = 4% pa INR 92.8741/£1.00 INR 93.86285/£1.00 (3m) Amount = £100,000 (1+0.04) = (93.86285/92.8741)(1+0.085) 1.04 = 1.0966 (rounded) IRP doesn’t hold (a): £100,000*(92.8741/£1.00) = INR 9287410 Mr. Peters would have to borrow this much to convert to GBP at the spot rate to pay his supplier. He then has to buy a forward contract for INR 9287410+interest to pay back the loan in 3 months using the 3-month forward rate. 9287410*0.085*0.25 = 197357.46 (rounded) Interest (9287410+197357.46)/93.86285 = £101049.22 (b): £100,000 * 0.04*0.25 = £1000 Interest £100,000+£1000 = £101000 The total cost of (a) is £101049.22 while the total cost of (b) is £101000, therefore, Mr.
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Peters should borrow directly from a UK-based bank to make the payment. 4. (2 points) Suppose now the 3-month forward exchange rate is INR 94.25/£1.00. What should Mr. Peters do? Ir f = 8.5% pa UKr f = 4% pa INR 92.8741/£1.00 INR 94.25/£1.00 (3m) Amount = £100,000 (1+0.04) = (94.25/92.8741)(1+0.085) 1.04 = 1.101074 (rounded) IRP doesn’t hold (a): £100,000*(92.8741/£1.00) = INR 9287410 Mr. Peters would have to borrow this much to convert to GBP at the spot rate to pay his supplier. He then has to buy a forward contract for INR 9287410+interest to pay back the loan in 3 months using the 3-month forward rate. 9287410*0.085*0.25 = 197357.46 (rounded) Interest (9287410+197357.46)/94.25 = £100634.14 (rounded) (b) stays the same The new total cost of (a) is £100634.14 while the total cost of (b) is still £101000, therefore, Mr. Peters should now borrow in INR from an Indian bank, converts it to £ to make the payment, and pay the loan back using the forward contract.