Assignment 1
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Special Topics in International Financial Management
Assignment 1 – 10 points
Shrewsbury Herbal Products, located in central England close to the Welsh border, is an
old-line producer of herbal teas, seasonings, and medicines. Its products are marketed
all over the United Kingdom and in many parts of continental Europe as well.
Shrewsbury Herbal generally invoices in British pound sterling when it sells to foreign
customers in order to guard against adverse exchange rate changes. Nevertheless, it
has just received an order from a large wholesaler in central France for £320,000 of its
products, conditional upon delivery being made in three months’ time and the order
invoiced in euros
.
Shrewsbury’s controller, Elton Peters, is concerned with whether the pound will
appreciate versus the euro over the next three months, thus eliminating all or most of
the profit when the euro receivable is paid. He thinks this is an unlikely possibility, but
he decides to conduct an ad hoc analysis of the EUR/GBP historical exchange rate
trend.
1.
(3 points) In Excel, plot a line chart of the EUR/GBP historical exchange rates
from January 1, 2022 to April 30, 2022 using data downloaded from
http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/data.html
. Comment on the exchange rates general trend.
Do you noticed any extremes? If so, describe them and provide possible
explanations of those extremes. If you were Mr. Peters, what assumptions would
you make of the next 3 months? Answer either here (include the chart from Excel)
or directly in Excel.
While the fluctuations in the chart may seem large, they are actually not very volatile
currencies and the general variance is between 1.18 and 1.21 Euro per GBP. There are no
discernible statistical extremes that would be considered an “outlier”. If I were Mr. Peters,
I wouldn’t expect the currencies to have major fluctuations in the next three months. I
would expect the variance to generally stay the same – between 1.18 and 1.21 Euro per
GBP.
Mr. Peters decided to contract the firm’s banker for suggestions about hedging the
exchange rate exposure. He learns from the banker that the current spot exchange rate
is EUR/GBP = 1.1660, thus the invoice amount should be €373,120. Mr. Peters also
learns that the three-month forward rates for the pound and the euro versus the U.S.
dollar are $1.3897/£1.00 and $1.1929/€1.00, respectively. The banker offers to set up a
forward hedge for selling the euro receivable for pound sterling based on the €/£ forward
cross-exchange rate implicit in the forward rates against the dollar.
2.
(2 points) What would you do if you were Mr. Peters?
The cross-exchange rate is $1.3897/$1.1929 = 1.1648
1.1648*£320,000 = €372,736 1.1660*£320,000 = €373,120
D = €373,120-€372,736 = €384
Mr. Peters would be giving up €384 if he accepted the hedge offered by the banker,
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1.16
1.17
1.18
1.19
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1.21
1.22
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1.2
1.2
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1.2
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1.19
1.18
1.18
1.19
1.19
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1.19
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1.19
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1.21
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1.21
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1.19
1.19
1.19
1.19
1.19
1.19
1.18
1.19
1.19
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1.19
1.18
1.18
1.19
1.19
1.19
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1.2
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1.2
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1.21
1.21
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.19
1.19
1.18
1.19
1.19
1.19
Rates
therefore, he should not hedge.
Mr. Peters is importing Tea from India. The value of his import is £100,000 payment for
which is due now but delivery will be in 3 months. Considering the liquidity condition of
his firm, Mr. Peters will need to borrow this money from the bank now. He should be
able to repay the bank in 3 months. The interest rates in UK and India are 4% and 8.5%
respectively (compounded annually). The current spot rate is INR 92.8741/£1.00. The 3-
month forward rate is INR 93.86285/£1.00. 3.
(3 points) Will there be any difference if whether Mr. Peters (a) borrows in INR
from an Indian bank, converts it to £ to make the payment, and pays back the
loan through the forward contract or (b) to directly borrow £ from a UK-based
bank to make the payment?
Ir
f
= 8.5% pa
UKr
f
= 4% pa
INR 92.8741/£1.00
INR 93.86285/£1.00 (3m)
Amount = £100,000
(1+0.04) = (93.86285/92.8741)(1+0.085)
1.04 = 1.0966 (rounded) IRP doesn’t hold
(a):
£100,000*(92.8741/£1.00) = INR 9287410 Mr. Peters would have to borrow this much to
convert to GBP at the spot rate to pay his supplier.
He then has to buy a forward contract for INR 9287410+interest to pay back the loan in 3
months using the 3-month forward rate.
9287410*0.085*0.25 = 197357.46 (rounded) Interest
(9287410+197357.46)/93.86285 = £101049.22
(b):
£100,000 * 0.04*0.25 = £1000 Interest
£100,000+£1000 = £101000
The total cost of (a) is £101049.22 while the total cost of (b) is £101000, therefore, Mr.
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Peters should borrow directly from a UK-based bank to make the payment.
4.
(2 points) Suppose now the 3-month forward exchange rate is INR 94.25/£1.00.
What should Mr. Peters do?
Ir
f
= 8.5% pa
UKr
f
= 4% pa
INR 92.8741/£1.00
INR 94.25/£1.00 (3m)
Amount = £100,000
(1+0.04) = (94.25/92.8741)(1+0.085)
1.04 = 1.101074 (rounded) IRP doesn’t hold
(a):
£100,000*(92.8741/£1.00) = INR 9287410 Mr. Peters would have to borrow this much to
convert to GBP at the spot rate to pay his supplier.
He then has to buy a forward contract for INR 9287410+interest to pay back the loan in 3
months using the 3-month forward rate.
9287410*0.085*0.25 = 197357.46 (rounded) Interest
(9287410+197357.46)/94.25 = £100634.14 (rounded)
(b) stays the same
The new total cost of (a) is £100634.14 while the total cost of (b) is still £101000,
therefore, Mr. Peters should now
borrow in INR from an Indian bank, converts it to £ to
make the payment, and pay the loan back using the forward contract.
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