3Q_STUDY_MATERIAL_GUIDE

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School

Ashworth College *

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L02V

Subject

Economics

Date

Jan 9, 2024

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3

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3Q_STUDY_MATERIAL_GUIDE \ \ Fill in the blank. _______ the forecast time horizon is a primary method for counteracting forecast error. _______ is the ratio between cumulative forecast error and the most recent estimate of mean absolute deviation. ________ forecasting methods should be used for predicting the demand patterns of new products introduced in the market. Respond to the following based on your reading. Describe each of the five demand components in a time series (of past demand data). Using a simple three-period, moving average forecast model, what's the forecast of demand for Week 6 given the historical demand levels shown below? Week Demand 1 24 2 19 3 30 4 25 5 31 Measured by the mean absolute deviation, which of the forecast methods—1, 2, or 3— provides the highest degree of forecast accuracy for the five weeks of data shown in the table below? Week Demand Method 1 Method 2 Method 3 1 24 23 26 21 2 19 25 22 20 3 27 21 23 23 4 25 30 29 22 5 31 25 32 28 Decreasing Tracking signal Qualitative Level is the relatively constant average demand during a time interval. Trend is an increase or decrease in the average demand over time. Seasonality is a regularly repeated pattern of increasing or decreasing demand, such as yearly, each semester, weekly, or daily. Cycle is increasing or decreasing demand over long periods, often many years. These changes can be due to changes in the overall economy or changes in product or service life cycles. Random error reflects short-term fluctuations in demand that can't be forecast. 30 + 25 + 31 = 86 86 ÷ 3 = 28.67 Methods 2 and 3 are equal. Both methods, 2 and 3, have MAD = 14 ÷ 5 = 2.8. (NOTE: MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION IS PROVIDES THE HIGHEST DEGREE OF FORECAST ACCURACY) Fill in the blank.
Aggregate planning assumes that facilities can only be changed over the _______ range. A wait-and-see facility approach uses a _______ capacity cushion. A single Ford plant builds a family of pickup trucks to serve the global market. This is an example of a _______. Respond to the following based on your reading. Assume you've been assigned the task of identifying a chase strategy aggregate production plan for the coming year. You've been informed that beginning inventory is 500 units, your plan should provide an ending inventory for the year equal to 200 units, and you've been provided the following forecasts of aggregate demand. Knowing that the typical objective of chase plans is to avoid carrying inventory, what should you choose as the planned rate of production for the first quarter? Quarter Forecast 1 6,000 2 5,500 3 5,000 4 6,500 If a facility has a utilization rate of 80 percent, and current output levels require 3,328 hours annually, what's the facility's annual capacity? Describe the types of short-range, medium-range, and long-range capacity decisions. Describe the most important questions to be answered concerning facilities decisions. Apply the questions to a fast-food restaurant chain with expanding demand. long small product-focused facility 6,000 – 500 = 5,500. The planned rate of production would be 5,500 units. 3,328 ÷ 0.8 = 4,160. The facility's annual capacity would be 4,160 hours. Short-range: Decisions are constrained by aggregate planning and facility decisions. Allocate the available capacity by assigning it to specific activities. Medium-range: Determine the workforce level and production output level within the facility capacity available. Long-range: Obtain the physical capacity that must be planned, developed, and constructed before its intended use. How much capacity is needed? In a fast-food restaurant chain, determine the forecast demand and strategically decide the capacity cushion: large, medium, or small. How large should each facility be? In a fast-food restaurant chain, balance economies of scale with diseconomies of scale and determine the appropriate size. When is the capacity needed? In a fast-food restaurant chain, the timing may use one of two strategies: preempt the competition, or wait and see. A preempt-the- competition strategy is more likely in this example because the demand is already known to be expanding. Where should the facilities be located? In a fast-food restaurant chain, as with most front-office services, the facilities must be located near customers. The firm should also consider quantitative factors such as ROI, NPV, transportation issues, taxes, and so on. The firm should also consider qualitative factors such as language and norms, worker attitudes and availability, customer attitudes, proximity to customers and suppliers, and competitors. What types of facilities/capacity are needed? In a fast-food restaurant chain, this will most likely result in a market-focused facility because the service must be near its customers, within the market that it serves.
Fill in the blank. A _______ should never be blocked or starved. Otherwise, the plant won't achieve maximum output. A _______ value greater than 1 means the remaining processing time needed is less than the time available to complete the job. First come, first served is widely used in both service and _______. Under the theory of constraints, _________ is defined as the difference between the sales and the operating expenses of a plant. _______ can be used to identify the bottleneck in a given process. Respond to the following based on your reading. What are the steps that could be taken at a bottleneck resource to increase its capacity? The table below contains information pertaining to five jobs in process on October 22. Determine the sequencing of these five jobs at this machine using the critical ratio rule. Assume a seven-day workweek. Job Remaining Processing Time Arrival Date Due Date A 2 days Oct. 12 Oct. 29 B 6 days Oct. 15 Oct. 28 C 5 days Oct. 18 Oct. 30 D 10 days Oct. 1 Oct. 31 E 8 days Oct. 10 Oct. 27 The table below contains information pertaining to five jobs currently waiting to be processed on the same machine. Determine the sequencing of these five jobs at this machine using the SPT heuristic. Job Process Time Arrival Date Due Date A 2 days Oct. 12 Oct. 29 ( 2 div 17) B 6 days Oct. 15 Oct. 28 (6 div 13) C 5 days Oct. 18 Oct. 30 (5 div 12) D 10 days Oct. 1 Oct. 31 (10 div 30) E 8 days Oct. 10 Oct. 27 (8 div 23) bottleneck critical ratio service operations throughput Finite capacity scheduling a. Reduce setup time at the bottleneck resource. b. Ensure that the bottleneck resource is used 24 hours a day with no breaks. c. Add resources to the bottleneck resource. B-E-C-D-A (process time divided by time remaining) A-C-B-E-D (NUMBER OF DAYS)
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