SCM 2160 05 forecasting activity - with answers

Week Demand Error 1 63 2 70 63 3 78 70 4 51 78 5 56 51 6 67 56 7 80 67 Week Demand Error 1 63 2 70 3 78 66.5 4 51 74 5 56 64.5 6 67 53.5 7 80 61.5 Week Demand Error 1 63 2 70 3 78 4 51 76.05 5 56 56.00 6 67 56.35 7 80 64.55 Week Demand Error 1 63 2 70 58.65 3 78 60.35 4 51 63.00 5 56 61.20 6 67 60.42 7 80 61.41 Naive Forecast Square Error Absolute Error Percenta ge Error 2-Period Moving Average Square Error Absolute Error Percenta ge Error Weighted Moving Average Square Error Absolute Error Percenta ge Error Exponential Smoothing w/ α= .15 Square Error Absolute Error Percenta ge Error

Week Demand Forecast 1 63 2 70 3 78 4 51 5 56 6 67 7 80

3 143 4 136 5 141 6 128 7 149 8 136 9 134 10 143

Model CFE MSE MAD Naive 1% 3-Period Moving Average Exponential Smoothing Absolute Percentage Error Absolute Percentage Error Absolute Percentage Error For exponential smoothing, use your forecast from the 3- period moving average as your first input eet and data provided, compute the naive forecast, 3-period moving average od moving average forecast as your input for the first week.) chooses is: CFE? MSE? MAD? MAPE?

Week Demand Naive Forecast Error Square Error Absolute Error 1 137 2 136 137 -1 1.00 1.0 3 143 136 7 49.00 7.0 4 136 143 -7 49.00 7.0 5 141 136 5 25.00 5.0 6 128 141 -13 169.00 13.0 7 149 128 21 441.00 21.0 8 136 149 -13 169.00 13.0 9 134 136 -2 4.00 2.0 10 143 134 9 81.00 9.0 Week Demand Error Square Error Absolute Error 1 137 2 136 3 143 4 136 138.67 -2.67 7.11 2.67 5 141 138.33 2.67 7.11 2.67 6 128 140.00 -12.00 144.00 12.00 7 149 135.00 14.00 196.00 14.00 8 136 139.33 -3.33 11.11 3.33 9 134 137.67 -3.67 13.44 3.67 10 143 139.67 3.33 11.11 3.33 Week Demand Error Square Error Absolute Error 1 137 2 136 3 143 4 136 5 141 137.92 3.08 9.49 3.08 6 128 138.78 -10.78 116.26 10.78 7 149 135.76 13.24 175.21 13.24 8 136 139.47 -3.47 12.04 3.47 9 134 138.50 -4.50 20.23 4.50 10 143 137.24 5.76 33.19 5.76 3-Period Moving Average Exponential Smoothing w/ α= .28

Week Demand Error Square Error Absolute Error 1 137 2 136 3 143 4 136 5 141 137.33 3.67 13.44 3.67 6 128 139.17 -11.17 124.69 11.17 7 149 133.58 15.42 237.67 15.42 8 136 141.29 -5.29 28.00 5.29 9 134 138.65 -4.65 21.58 4.65 10 143 136.32 6.68 44.58 6.68 Week Demand Error Square Error Absolute Error 1 137 2 136 3 143 4 136 5 141 138.40 2.60 6.76 2.60 6 128 138.66 -10.66 113.64 10.66 7 149 137.59 11.41 130.10 11.41 8 136 138.73 -2.73 7.48 2.73 9 134 138.46 -4.46 19.90 4.46 10 143 138.02 4.98 24.85 4.98 Exponential Smoothing w/ α= .5 Exponential Smoothing w/ α= .1

3% 9% 10% 4% 3% 5% 2% 8% 8% 2% 3% 3% Percentage Error These two examples show how the values and error changes based on the alpha value chosen! Percentage Error

MAD MAPE 10.5 8% 6.50 5% 6.80 5% 7.81 6% 6.14 4% 8 9 10 the naive method week. The reason is pare their ntil Week 5, so error eek 5. judge what method quite a bit of ul! Look at how much m the forecast) of info drawn from