Course Project - Procter and Gamble

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Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology *

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5060

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Economics

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Nov 24, 2024

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Introduction William Procter and James Gamble founded Procter & Gamble in Cincinnati, Ohio on October 31, 1837. Procter was a candle maker from England, and Gamble was a soap maker from Ireland. They met by marrying sisters Olivia and Elizabeth Norris, respectively. Their father, Alexander Norris, convinced the brothers-in-law to become business partners since they were competing for materials as owners of their own shops (Procter & Gamble, Our History - How it Began, 2009). Known as P&G, the humble soap and candle company has grown into the world’s largest consumer goods corporation, controlling $119.307B in total assets as of 2021 year-end (Macrotrends, 2022). It earned $14.306B in net income in 2021 and currently accounts for 0.993% of the S&P 500 market capitalization, the 14 th highest (Slickcharts, 2022; The Wall Street Journal, 2022). P&G owns 65 brands across a variety of personal health, care, and hygiene products. In 2014, the company sold about 100 of its brands to focus on the current lineup, which generated 95% of its profits (Fortune, 2022). Its present list includes notable household names like Pampers, Downy, Gain, Tide, Bounty, Charmin, Tampax, Gillette, Head & Shoulders, Old Spice, Cascade, Dawn, Febreze, Mr. Clean, Swiffer, Crest, Oral-B, Pepto-Bismol, Vicks, Ivory, and Olay (Procter & Gamble, Brands, 2022). P&G owes its market share in each industry to innovative ideas and technology. Vick’s VapoRub conceived the first illness-alleviating ointment in 1894. Gillette revolutionized personal shaving in 1901 with its replaceable blades and stable handle, making for a safer and user-friendly experience. Oral-B’s soft nylon bristle toothbrushes protected users’ gums in 1949. Crest created the first fluoride toothpaste in 1955, combatting cavities and tooth decay. In 1961, P&G launched Head & Shoulders after unearthing Pyrithione Zinc as the solution to dandruff. In the same year, Pampers developed a disposable diaper, effective as cloth. Charmin invented toilet paper that was soft and non-irritating, yet sturdy in 1965. P&G devised the first 2-in-1 hair care formula in 1986 and dominated the new market segment through Head & Shoulders and Pantene. In 1998, Febreze introduced the first easy-spraying air freshener that also eliminates odors long-term, and Swiffer’s WetJet ousted the hassle of using a mop and bucket. Tide Pods

appealed to consumers in 2012 by providing an efficient method of transmitting laundry detergent through water-soluble plastic cases (Procter & Gamble, P&G History, 2022).

Performance in Past Wars & Conflicts Note: for sections 2 and 3, the tables contain my own calculations based on the monthly data from the CRSP spreadsheet until 2000, then monthly data from Yahoo! Finance after 2000. Therefore, the excess returns implemented in the mean and standard deviation calculations are on a monthly basis. For the line charts in section 2, the first three wars are based on CRSP monthly data and the last four are based on weekly data from the Bloomberg terminal at UF. Procter & Gamble (PG) War Dates Beta SD of Excess Returns (S&P 500) Mean of Excess Returns (S&P 500) WWII 9/1/1939 – 9/2/1945 0.585 4.730 pp -0.351 pp Korean War 6/25/1950 – 7/27/1953 0.801 3.545 pp -0.830 pp Vietnam War 11/1/1955 – 4/30/1975 0.524 7.153 pp 0.235 pp Gulf War 8/2/1990 – 2/28/1991 0.707 5.409 pp -0.548 pp Kosovo War 2/28/1998 – 6/11/1999 0.177 8.766 pp -0.890 pp Iraq War 3/20/2003 – 12/15/2011 0.296 5.028 pp 0.097 pp War in Afghanistan 10/7/2001 – 8/30/2021 0.326 4.710 pp 0.023 pp Since 1929 8/31/1929 – 3/31/2022 0.508 6.550 pp 0.094 pp

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PG Monthly Price During WWII 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 P&G played an unexpected role in WWII. Government officials approached P&G’s CEO and requested the company’s help with loading shells, since P&G’s soap powder-loading process could apply to ammunition. P&G therefore established the Defense Corporation and an operation at Wolf Creek Ordinance Plant in Milan, Tennessee in December 1940 to manufacture shells, bombs, bomb clusters, tracers, rockets, proximity fuses, and tetryl pellets for Great Britain (Admin_BJR, 2009; Joint Munitions Command History Office, 2010; Procter & Gamble Signal, 2020). After the attack on Pearl Harbor, P&G expanded to Gulf Ordinance Plant in Aberdeen, Mississippi in April 1942 to upscale production and support the national war effort (Joint Munitions Command History Office, 2010). According to Swasy, “Eventually, P&G plants produced 25 percent of all the shells and bombs used by the Allies” (1994). Additionally, P&G allowed its Gillette factory in Boston to assemble aircraft engine components. This partnership with the armed forces proved invaluable as soldiers in war consequently held P&G’s razors and soap in their travel kit, as advertised in the image below (Procter & Gamble Signal, 2020). Jul-39 Oct-39 Jan-40 Apr-40 Jul-40 Oct-40 Jan-41 Apr-41 Jul-41 -41 Jan-42 Apr-42 Jul-42 -42 Jan-43 Apr-43 Jul-43 -43 Jan-44 Apr-44 Jul-44 Oct-44 Jan-45 Apr-45 Jul-45

PG Monthly Price During Korean War 1.2 1.15 1.1 1.05 1 0.95 0.9 0.85 0.8 PG hit a wartime low of $0.69 in March 1942 (three months after Pearl Harbor), a 36.45% decrease from its wartime high of $1.09 in April 1940. This low marked an inflection point as the stock would rise steadily throughout the US’ and thus P&G’s involvement in the war, ending at $0.96 in September 1945, a 39.55% increase from the low and a recovery to the pre-war price. P&G participated in the Korean War similarly to WWII. Swasy explains, “This time P&G Defense Company helped assemble nuclear bombs at an underground facility in Amarillo, Texas.” However, unlike in WWII, the government emphasized secrecy related to P&G’s assistance in order to neutralize espionage (Swasy, 1994). PG suffered a cumulative 5.90% decrease throughout the war.

PG Monthly Price During Vietnam War 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 PG Weekly Price During Gulf War 11.5 11 10.5 10 9.5 9 8.5 P&G did not engage in the Vietnam War nor in any future conflicts as it had the prior two wars. Its stock tanked 50.32% from March to May 1961 in response to President Kennedy approving attack on the Viet Cong, marking the US’ participation in the war (History, 2021). The stock’s value did not begin recovering until June 1966, from which point it grew an impressive 203.13% in just under nine years. Sep-55 May-6

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PG Weekly Price During Kosovo War 55 50 45 40 35 30 PG experienced a 20.25% shock over the span of a month as the US led the Allied coalition of the Gulf War (CNN World, 2021). It quickly recovered to normal levels three months before the short war ended. The Kosovo War is an odd case since PG dropped 27.21% over two months then recovered in just over a month in the middle of the war during the third quarter of 1998. When NATO intervened and bombed Yugoslavia from March to June 1999, the price did not experience any significant volatility (Wise, 2013). Perhaps this is an example of the market’s speculative nature and investors’ response to news about an ongoing war that could involve their own country in the near future.

PG Weekly Price During War in Afghanistan 150 130 110 90 70 50 30 PG Weekly Price During Iraq War 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 2/24/20032/24/20042/24/20052/24/2006 2/24/20072/24/20082/24/20092/24/20102/24/2011 AP-NORC conducted a poll in August 2021 after the US withdrew its troops from Afghanistan that indicates Americans have become disinterested in these long wars the country partook in for extended periods. 62% and 63% of Americans do not consider the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, respectively, to have been worth fighting. Additionally, Americans are significantly more distressed about threats from domestic extremist groups than foreign ones (AP-NORC, 2021). This phenomenon could explain these two line charts. Events like 9/11, Osama bin Laden’s assassination, and the US’ invasion of Iraq had no discernable effect on PG’s price. During this period, the stock was subject to financial and

market conditions, such as the housing market meltdown of 2008, low consumer expectations for P&G’s sales performance in 2018, the coronavirus, and the ensuing high stock returns in 2021 (Kalogeropoulos, 2019). These factors overpowered investors’ interest in wars they did not support. Interestingly, when the US invaded Iraq, P&G avoided airing advertisements for its products during news programs covering the war (Dayton Business Journal, 2003). Not to say that WWII and the Korean War are the same as the Iraq War, but it is clear P&G underwent a shift over this time period. In the 1940s and 1950s, the consumer goods giant directly contributed to the US government's objectives by producing ammunition and nuclear weapons. By the 2000s, they did not even wish to associate with such conflicts on television. To date, P&G has not directly assisted the armed forces since the Korean War.

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Comparative Performance in Wars Among P&G’s main competitors are Unilever (UL), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), and Church & Dwight (CHD). They are all major players in consumer goods. Unilever is based in London, England, traded on multiple stock exchanges including the NYSE, and owns recognizable brands like Klondike, Popsicle, Axe, Ben & Jerry’s, Degree, Dove, Lipton, Q-Tips, Hellmann’s, and St. Ives (Unilever, 2022). Colgate-Palmolive is headquartered in New York, NY and possesses brands like Colgate, Palmolive, Tom’s of Maine, Irish Spring, Fabuloso, Waterpik, and Softsoap (Colgate-Palmolive, 2022). Church & Dwight operates out of Ewing, NJ and controls brands like Arm & Hammer, OxiClean, XTRA, and Trojan (Church & Dwight, 2022). Unilever (UL) War Dates Beta SD of Excess Returns (S&P 500) Mean of Excess Returns (S&P 500) Vietnam War 11/1/1955 – 4/30/1975 0.869 6.686 pp -0.051 pp Gulf War 8/2/1990 – 2/28/1991 0.253 7.076 pp -0.334 pp Kosovo War 2/28/1998 – 6/11/1999 0.461 8.787 pp -0.413 pp Iraq War 3/20/2003 – 12/15/2011 0.584 5.701 pp 0.229 pp War in Afghanistan 10/7/2001 – 8/30/2021 0.440 5.635 pp -0.031 pp Since 1962 1/31/1962 – 3/31/2022 0.570 6.170 pp 0.137 pp

Colgate-Palmolive (CL) War Dates Beta SD of Excess Returns (S&P 500) Mean of Excess Returns (S&P 500) WWII 9/1/1939 – 9/2/1945 0.531 7.123 pp 0.980 pp Korean War 6/25/1950 – 7/27/1953 1.154 5.123 pp -0.462 pp Vietnam War 11/1/1955 – 4/30/1975 1.004 6.999 pp 0.913 pp Gulf War 8/2/1990 – 2/28/1991 0.649 5.854 pp 0.950 pp Kosovo War 2/28/1998 – 6/11/1999 0.947 9.909 pp 0.354 pp Iraq War 3/20/2003 – 12/15/2011 0.347 5.158 pp 0.227 pp War in Afghanistan 10/7/2001 – 8/30/2021 0.330 4.940 pp -0.089 pp Since 1930 6/30/1930 – 3/31/2022 0.748 7.606 pp 0.289 pp Church & Dwight (CHD) War Dates Beta SD of Excess Returns (S&P 500) Mean of Excess Returns (S&P 500) Gulf War 8/2/1990 – 2/28/1991 0.877 7.959 pp 2.344 pp Kosovo War 2/28/1998 – 6/11/1999 0.674 5.175 pp 0.838 pp Iraq War 3/20/2003 – 12/15/2011 0.197 5.832 pp 1.110 pp War in Afghanistan 10/7/2001 – 8/30/2021 0.228 6.020 pp 0.733 pp Since 1977 1/31/1977 – 3/31/2022 0.377 8.159 pp 0.237 pp During WWII, PG experienced negative excess returns, compared to CL’s positive excess returns. CL accordingly had a higher SD of excess returns. Both were defensive stocks, with similar betas of 0.585 and 0.531, respectively. In the Korean War, PG and CL both suffered negative ERs, but PG had

nearly double the negative ER. Unlike in WWII, the stocks differed in responsiveness to market fluctuations. PG had a defensive beta of 0.801 while CL had a cyclical beta of 1.154. CL again experienced more variance through a higher SD of ERs. PG finally bore positive ERs of 0.235 percentage points during the Vietnam War, higher than UL’s negative ERs, but still lower than CL’s mean of 0.913 pp ER. PG and UL were defensive stocks while CL was cyclical for the second straight war. This was also the first war PG encountered higher variance than CL, exhibiting a 7.153 pp SD, the highest of the three. During the Gulf War, PG underperformed the other three by ERs and had the lowest variance. CL and CHD both had positive ERs in this short war. PG’s ER woes continued during the Kosovo War, posting a mean of -0.890 pp, lowest of the four. Additionally, it had a high SD of ERs of 8.766 pp. UL and CL had similar variances but compensated with higher ERs. The Iraq War was a bittersweet period for PG since it produced positive ERs, but still was last place among its competitors. The four stocks all had similar SDs of 5-6 pp. The War in Afghanistan was the only war PG experienced higher ERs than CL; it was also its only consecutive positive ERs timeframe. Only CHD outperformed PG during the twenty-year war. Also, PG had the lowest variance among its rivals during the Afghan War. Based on these measures, PG is the third-best stock of this group during wartime. Of the seven wars, PG averaged negative monthly ERs during four of them, meaning it underperformed the S&P 500 index in these periods. Even when PG outperformed the index in three wars, twice it was by under 0.1 percentage points. UL similarly had negative monthly ERs in four of five wars. CL and CHD outclassed PG in wartime, with CL generating positive average ERs in five of seven wars—three times by greater than 0.9 pp—and CHD doing so in all four wars, always by at least 0.7 pp. The cumulative mean of wartime means of monthly ERs better demonstrates this. During all-time wartime, CL averages a 0.427 percentage point monthly excess return over the S&P 500; CHD averages a 0.794 pp monthly ER. Contrastingly, PG averages an aggregate wartime monthly ER of -0.028 pp, and UL an even worse -0.060 pp monthly ER. During all wars, PG and its competitors were defensive stocks, except when CL was

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cyclical during the Korean and Vietnam wars. Even with these cyclical periods, CL’s overall beta since 1930 is 0.748, the highest of the four yet still insensitive to market fluctuations.

Conclusion and Investment Advice In recent days, Ukraine has requested weapons from NATO, whose countries have already militarily assisted Ukraine in their defense against the Russian invasion. Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary general of NATO, confirmed the allied nations’ intent to continue supporting Ukraine (BBC News, 2022). In February, Vladimir Putin warned that if Western countries interfere with the situation, they will face unprecedented retaliation, which suggests a threat to unleash nuclear weapons (Dapcevich, 2022). More recently, the Kremlin supplemented that the US’ contributions to Ukraine will only harm peace talks between the warring nations (BBC News, 2022). Therefore, the public should expect this war to continue and the US to further involvement in it. If an investor is considering PG or one of the three discussed competitors’ stock, it is likely part of “safety” decisions for their portfolio. A consumer goods corporation is a secure bet during uncertain times because no matter what economic or financial conditions challenge customers, they still must purchase these everyday products. Historical evidence backs this claim, with all four big names averaging betas under 1, signifying they are defensive stocks, relatively unresponsive to market volatility. Jim Cramer recently suggested investors should buy PG during this war, calling it the “safest of safety stocks” and citing its impressive history of increasing dividends. He also mentioned P&G’s ability to “cope with rising raw costs by passing them on to the consumer because they have scale and superior brands that can command high prices” (Hur, 2022). I would challenge Cramer with PG’s poor wartime performance. If an investor is looking to add a consumer goods power, I would recommend Colgate- Palmolive or Church & Dwight instead of P&G. CHD suffers dividend-wise by offering an annual dividend yield of 1.04% compared to PG’s 2.25% (Nasdaq, CHD Dividend History, 2022; Nasdaq, PG Dividend History, 2022). However, CHD averaged positive excess returns during all four wars from 1990 to 2021 and boasts the lowest overall beta of the group, 0.377 since 1977. It also had the highest cumulative wartime mean of monthly ERs at 0.794

percentage points. CL fulfills a slightly different agenda with its 0.748 overall beta since 1930, nearly twice as market-correlated as CHD. It also averages a lower aggregate mean monthly ER than CHD, at 0.427 pp. Nevertheless, both CHD and CL overwhelm PG in this regard, since PG averages a negative total monthly ER during wartime of -0.028 pp. Additionally, CL trumps PG’s dividend argument with its own 2.32% annual dividend yield (Nasdaq, CL Dividend History, 2022). My personal preference would be to buy CL over CHD. CL’s wartime excellence spans back to WWII, while CHD’s impressive excess returns are only backed since the Gulf War in the 90s. Colgate- Palmolive also has a larger footprint in the consumer goods marketplace, generating $2.166B in net income in 2021, compared to Church & Dwight’s $828M (The Wall Street Journal, Church & Dwight Co. Income Statement, 2022; The Wall Street Journal, Colgate-Palmolive Co. Income Statement, 2022). Finally, in the stock market, CL holds a 0.175% S&P 500 weight, 122 nd highest, nearly triple CHD’s 291 st -place 0.066% weight (Slickcharts, 2022).

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References Admin_BJR. (2009, January 1). Procter and Gamble in World War II and the Korean War . Retrieved from IEEE Cincinnati Section: https://ieeecincinnati.org/2009/01/28/procter-and-gamble-in- world-war-ii-and-the-korean-war/ AP-NORC. (2021, August 21). Most Americans Say the Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq Were Not Worth Fighting . Retrieved from AP-NORC: https://apnorc.org/projects/most-americans-say-the-wars-in- afghanistan-and-iraq-were-not-worth-fighting/ BBC News. (2022, April 7). NATO: Ukraine Asks for 'Weapons, Weapons, Weapons' . Retrieved from BBC News: https:// www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61020567 Church & Dwight. (2022, April 8). Our Brands . Retrieved from Church & Dwight: https://churchdwight.com/our-brands/ CNN World. (2021, August 2). Gulf War Fast Facts . Retrieved from CNN World: https:// www.cnn.com/2013/09/15/world/meast/gulf-war-fast-facts/index.html Colgate-Palmolive. (2022, April 8). Our Brands . Retrieved from Colgate-Palmolive: https:// www.colgatepalmolive.com/en-us/brands Dapcevich, M. (2022, February 24). Did Putin Threaten Nuclear Retaliation Against Anyone Who Gets in His Way? Retrieved from Snopes: https:// www.snopes.com/fact-check/putin-nuclear- consequences-ukraine/ Dayton Business Journal. (2003, April 1). P&G Still Pulling Ads from War Programs . Retrieved from The Business Journals: https:// www.bizjournals.com/dayton/stories/2003/03/31/daily16.html Fortune. (2022, April 8). Procter & Gamble . Retrieved from Fortune: https://fortune.com/company/procter-gamble/

History. (2021, September 27). Vietnam War Timeline . Retrieved from History: https:// www.history.com/topics/vietnam-war/vietnam-war- timeline#:~:text=March %201965%3A%20President%20Johnson%20launches,combat%20troops %20to%20enter%20Vietnam. Hur, K. (2022, March 3). Cramer Says Investors Should Stick to Procter & Gamble: The ‘Safest of Safety Stocks’ . Retrieved from CNBC: https:// www.cnbc.com/2022/03/03/cramer-says-investors-should- stick-to-procter-gamble-the-safest-of-safety-stocks-.html Joint Munitions Command History Office. (2010, December). History of the Ammunition Industrial Base . Retrieved from The United States Army Joint Munitions Command: https:// www.jmc.army.mil/Docs/History/Ammunition%20Industrial%20Base%20v2%20- %202010%20update.pdf Kalogeropoulos, D. (2019, April 18). How Procter & Gamble Turned Things Around in 2018 . Retrieved from The Motley Fool: https:// www.fool.com/investing/2019/01/14/how-procter-gamble-turned- things-around-in-2018.aspx Macrotrends. (2022, April 8). Procter & Gamble Total Assets 2010-2021 | PG . Retrieved from Macrotrends: https:// www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/PG/procter-gamble/total-assets Nasdaq. (2022, April 8). CHD Dividend History . Retrieved from Nasdaq: https:// www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/chd/dividend-history Nasdaq. (2022, April 8). CL Dividend History . Retrieved from Nasdaq: https:// www.nasdaq.com/market- activity/stocks/cl/dividend-history Nasdaq. (2022, April 8). PG Dividend History . Retrieved from Nasdaq: https:// www.nasdaq.com/market- activity/stocks/pg/dividend-history

Nasdaq Data Link. (2022, April 8). S&P 500 Real Price by Month . Retrieved from Nasdaq Data Link: https://data.nasdaq.com/data/MULTPL/SP500_REAL_PRICE_MONTH-sp-500-real-price-by- month Procter & Gamble. (2009). Our History - How it Began . Retrieved from Procter & Gamble: https:// www.fr.pg.com/en_US/downloads/media.iwold/Fact_Sheets_CompanyHistory.pdf Procter & Gamble. (2022, April 8). Brands . Retrieved from Procter & Gamble: https://us.pg.com/brands/ Procter & Gamble. (2022, April 8). P&G History . Retrieved from Procter & Gamble: https://us.pg.com/pg-history/ Procter & Gamble Signal. (2020, May 6). Managing through Crisis: Lessons from World War II . Retrieved from Procter & Gamble Signal: https://pgsignal.com/2020/05/06/managing-through- crisis-lessons-from-world-war-ii/ Slickcharts. (2022, April 8). S&P 500 Companies by Weight . Retrieved from Slickcharts: https:// www.slickcharts.com/sp500 Swasy, A. (1994). Soap Opera: The Inside Story of Procter & Gamble. New York City: Simon & Schuster. Retrieved from https://books.google.com/books? id=DyTb_EAckTcC&lpg=PT103&dq=procter%20and%20gamb le%20korean %20war&pg=PT103#v=onepage&q=procter%20and%20gamble%20korean%20war &f=false The Wall Street Journal. (2022, April 8). Church & Dwight Co. Income Statement . Retrieved from The Wall Street Journal: https:// www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/CHD/financials/annual/income- statement

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The Wall Street Journal. (2022, April 8). Colgate-Palmolive Co. Income Statement . Retrieved from The Wall Street Journal: https:// www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/CL/financials/annual/income- statement The Wall Street Journal. (2022, April 8). Procter & Gamble Co. Income Statement . Retrieved from The Wall Street Journal: https:// www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/PG/financials/annual/income- statement Unilever. (2022, April 8). Our Brands . Retrieved from Unilever: https:// www.unilever.com/brands/all- brands/ Wise, L. (2013, June 21). Was NATO's Intervention in Kosovo in 1999 'Just'? Retrieved from E- International Relations: https:// www.e-ir.info/2013/06/21/was-natos-intervention-in-kosovo-in- 1999-just/ Yahoo! Finance. (2022, April 8). Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD) . Retrieved from Yahoo! Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CHD/ Yahoo! Finance. (2022, April 8). Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL) . Retrieved from Yahoo! Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL/ Yahoo! Finance. (2022, April 8). The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) . Retrieved from Yahoo! Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PG/history/ Yahoo! Finance. (2022, April 8). Unilever PLC (UL) . Retrieved from Yahoo! Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UL/

Course Project - Procter and Gamble

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