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1 Article Portfolio Name Institution Course Instructor Date

2 Article Portfolio Why Are Oil Prices Falling While War Rages in the Middle East? The article discusses how oil prices have remained low despite ongoing conflict in the Middle East, attributing it to weak demand forecasts outweighing supply concerns. It demonstrates how macroeconomic trends and geopolitics interact to impact commodity markets. Specifically, the article shows that oil prices have stayed around $80 per barrel even as intense fighting continues between Israel and Hamas militants in the Middle East, a region that holds much of the world's petroleum resources. It explains that traders are focused on bearish forecasts for oil demand rather than worrying about potential supply disruptions, especially from key importers like China. The article attributes this to lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war when prices spiked but then quickly retreated. It also cites robust U.S. oil production and OPEC supply cutbacks as reassuring factors insulating markets from Middle East tensions. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/09/business/energy-environment/oil-price-israel- gaza.html#:~:text=A%20main%20reason%2C%20analysts%20say,there%20is%20no %20immediate%20threat . Retailers Wary of Squeeze on Shoppers Ahead of Key Holiday Season The article shows major retailers expressing caution about consumer spending for the upcoming holiday season amid high inflation and rising interest rates. It provides examples of shifting consumer behavior and the uncertainty retailers face heading into the critical end-of-year sales period. Specifically, the article discusses earnings reports and statements from major retail chains like Walmart, Target, and Home Depot, showing their wariness about consumers' financial health heading into the vital holiday shopping season. It notes that these retailers are seeing purchases shift away from discretionary items to necessities, signaling that households feel

3 squeezed by inflation and higher interest costs. However, the retailers also observe consumers still actively seeking out discounts and deals, underscoring the uncertainty around exactly how much economic pressures will dampen holiday spending. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/16/business/retail-holiday-walmart-target- macys.html#:~:text=Consumers%20have%20bucked%20expectations%20despite,the%20end %20of%20the%20year . Moody's Changes U.S. Credit Outlook to 'Negative' The article discusses credit rating agency Moody's revising the outlook on U.S. debt to negative, citing rising polarization and lack of fiscal discipline in Congress. It underscores concerns about the impacts of political dysfunction on America's economic strength. Specifically, Moody's issued a warning about U.S. creditworthiness by changing its outlook to negative, meaning a downgrade is possible, though it maintained the highest AAA rating for now. Moody's blamed bitter partisanship in Congress, leading to unsustainable deficits and debt levels that are weakening the U.S. fiscal position over the long term. It argued that divided government is hampering efforts to reduce the budget deficit and improve debt affordability. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/10/business/moodys-negative-credit-outlook.html U.K. Inflation Slows to 4.6%, Lowest in Two Years The article shows inflation in the U.K. declining to the lowest level in two years due to falling household energy costs, providing some relief though the cost of living remains high. It demonstrates inflation trends responding to specific economic factors. Specifically, the article discusses data showing Britain's consumer price index rose 4.6% in October from a year earlier, down substantially from over 11% last year, as caps on household energy bills were lowered. It explains that the decline was driven by easing energy inflation, though food inflation also slowed

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4 slightly. However, the article notes that core inflation, excluding food and energy, remains sticky at 5.7%, suggesting underlying price pressures persist. It also points out that wage growth is still high at 7.7%, above levels consistent with the central bank's 2% inflation target. The data provides some reassuring signs of cooling in U.K. inflation. However, the article clarifies that central bankers still have work to do and cannot declare victory yet on returning inflation to normal ranges sustainably. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/15/business/uk-inflation-october.html The Inflation Rally Goes Global The article discusses investor optimism spreading globally based on U.S. inflation data, with markets betting the Fed will soon cut interest rates. It shows interconnections between U.S. monetary policy and worldwide asset prices. Specifically, the article describes stock and bond rallies across the world, including in Asia and Europe, following cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data on Tuesday. It attributes the exuberance to the inflation report, prompting speculation that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates by mid-2023 rather than waiting until 2024. Falling U.S. inflation lifts hopes that central banks worldwide can ease policy sooner than anticipated. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/15/business/dealbook/inflation-markets-interest- rates.html#:~:text=DealBook%20Newsletter-,The%20Inflation%20Rally%20Goes %20Global,rates%20will%20begin%20to%20fall . Los Angeles Will Offer More Energy Incentives to Low-Income Residents The article discusses Los Angeles expanding financial incentives for electric vehicles and chargers in low-income communities, responding to a study showing clean energy transition costs are unaffordable for many. It provides an example of a policy aimed at equitable climate

5 action. Specifically, the article covers Los Angeles announcing new incentives of up to $4,000 for used electric vehicle purchases and fast charger installations in underserved neighborhoods. This responds to a report finding lower-income residents are being left behind in the city's transition to clean energy, unable to afford items like E.V.s and home solar panels. The policy aims to improve equity after past green energy rebates disproportionately went to wealthier residents. L.A. officials acknowledged that the clean energy shift will be costly and require society-wide changes, with affordability especially a barrier for disadvantaged groups. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/16/business/energy-environment/los-angeles-energy- inequality.html Cryptocurrency Prices Surge, Driven by a Potential Bitcoin Fund The article discusses a rise in crypto prices driven by optimism over a potential Bitcoin ETF, which investors hope could draw more mainstream investment. It demonstrates the crypto market's speculative swings based on regulatory developments. Specifically, the article covers cryptocurrency prices jumping last week, with Bitcoin topping $35,000 and Ether up 10%, attributed to growing excitement around an anticipated Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. Crypto enthusiasts hope SEC approval of such an ETF would provide an easy vehicle for drawing Wall Street and retail interest to Bitcoin. The article notes that the SEC has rejected past Bitcoin ETF efforts but may be close to greenlighting one now after a recent legal victory, fueling investor optimism. However, it points out that some analysts are skeptical about whether an ETF would have a transformative impact or just shuffle existing crypto capital. The market gyrations highlight the crypto world's continued susceptibility to speculative booms and busts tied to the regulatory environment.

6 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/16/technology/cryptocurrency-bitcoin- etf.html#:~:text=Investors%20anticipate%20regulatory%20approval%20of,invest%20in%20the %20digital%20asset.&text=David%20Yaffe%2DBellany%20covers%20the%20cryptocurrency %20industry . China Wants to Bulldoze Old Neighborhoods to Revive the Economy The article shows China's plans to redevelop run-down urban villages to stimulate property construction, using an unfinished project in Shenzhen as an example of the complexities involved. It demonstrates real estate's role in China's economic fortunes. Specifically, the article discusses China targeting worn-down urban villages for demolition and redevelopment to reboot the property sector as the real estate downturn drags on the economy. It focuses on an urban renewal project in Shenzhen where developer China Evergrande ran into financial trouble after buying buildings to clear land, stalling the redevelopment. This illustrates the complexities of remaking dense, dilapidated neighborhoods owned by collectives and individual landlords, an expensive and lengthy process. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/17/business/china-urban-villages-rebuilding.html Yellen Says U.S. Wants 'Healthy' Economic Ties With China The article discusses U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen and her Chinese counterpart pledging to avoid "decoupling" the two economies while still addressing areas of concern like intellectual property theft. It shows ongoing efforts to balance competition and cooperation between the powers. Specifically, the article covers high-level economic talks between Yellen and China's Vice Premier He, ahead of planned meetings between President Biden and Xi Jinping. It notes that Yellen stated they agreed the U.S. and China should strive for a "healthy economic relationship" and avoid moves toward severing economic ties. However, she also

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7 raised issues like China's unfair trade practices, intellectual property violations, and support for Russia's defense industry. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/10/business/yellen-china-economy- relations.html#:~:text=Treasury%20Secretary%20Janet%20L.%20Yellen,%2C%E2%80%9D %20Ms.%20Yellen%20said . Higher Contribution Limits Are Coming for 401(k) Retirement Plans. The article discusses the IRS raising 401(k) contribution limits for 2024, though most Americans still cannot afford to save the maximum. It demonstrates how retirement saving policy impacts higher versus lower earners. Specifically, the article covers an IRS announcement that 401(k) contribution limits will rise to $23,000 next year, up $500 from 2023. However, it notes that according to financial advisers and research, the vast majority of savers do not max out contributions, with that only achievable for higher earners. It points out data showing that while 401(k) participation rates have increased, average contribution levels remain around 7-8% of income, far below the new limits. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/10/your-money/401k-retirement-contribution-limits.html

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