Assignment 1 - Gray Zone Warfare - Maj Keith Johnson 8-11-23

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ORG8532

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Civil Engineering

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Dec 6, 2023

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Assignment 1 – Gray Zone Warfare Maj Keith J Johnson, 8-11-23 Instructions Provide an article concerning a hypothetical or real-world example of conflict, and explain in 400-500 words how the article aligns - or does not align - with course concepts regarding Gray Zone Competition and/or Hybrid Warfare. Be sure to support your position with logic and reasoning. The article can be about any time period or part of the world and can include real-word or hypothetical events, as long as it involves competition or conflict that supports a discussion of Gray Zone Competition and/or Hybrid Warfare. When submitting your essay, attach a copy of the article you used or include a hyperlink to it within the essay. Other Guidance  Length: 400-500 words.  Include appropriate attribution per the Global College Style Guide when the ideas or language of others are used.  This assignment will not be stored in the institution repository; however, it will be checked by the eSchool Global College Similarity Detection System.  In the follow-on course, this assignment will be used as the basis for an in-class discussion.  There is no rubric for this assignment; however, you should strive to achieve the writing goals identified on the Global College PME Essay Rubric .

Assignment 1 – Gray Zone Warfare Maj Keith J Johnson, 8-11-23 The best examples of Gray Warfare in the current geopolitical environment are Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s unrelenting power grab of the S China Sea. Although one could argue that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is really more of a conventional war (which it is in many ways), it still falls below the threshold of action by NATO or the EU. It is not the same as invading Poland or Germany, for example. What is interesting is that Russia has consistently messaged that the war is just, both to its people and to the world. If this was not a Gray War strategy, then there would be no need to message anything; just seek and destroy the enemy. But that is not what is happening, even a year into the conflict, Russia is still trying to shape the narrative. Of course, so is Ukraine. A more interesting Gray Zone competition is playing out in the South China Sea. As I have mentioned in previous papers and posts online, China’s strategy and execution over the last 50 years has been flawless. What I find fascinating is that they generally stay away from military intervention, except when the victory is easy and swift. China has conveniently failed to recognize International Law when it comes to their ambitions in the South China Sea. Despite international rulings, they continue to expand, develop and implement a strategy of dominance in the region. While the line has moved over time, it is moved very slowly; never rising to a crises that would require international intervention. It has long been recognized 12 miles is a nation’s boundary when it comes to navigable waterways. China does not recognize this and has sought to expand its boundaries by creating islands and seizing islands well past the 12 miles. Notwithstanding this strategy, it has successfully campaigned to prevent foreign governments from recognizing Taiwan. For me, the argument is without merit. If we do not recognize Taiwan as a separate state, why do we sell them weapons to defend themselves? Even this past Olympics, Taiwan was not recognized as its own country but rather referred to as “Chinese Taipei”. Although these may seem meaningless by themselves, collectively they amount to an information campaign that suggests China is winning. This leads me to my final conclusion. We all know that China’s goal is to reunite China and Taiwan under one flag. When I take a look at Russia and Ukraine, I can’t help but think that a similar situation in Taiwan would yield the same results; the rest of the world supporting from afar, but no real interest in coming to Taiwan’s aide.

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