2024_HW10_Forecasting

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University of Kansas *

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310

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Business

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Apr 3, 2024

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Uploaded by ConstableSparrowMaster508

forecas t actual demand error 2Q 2022 215 3Q 2022 210 4Q 2022 220 1Q 2023 255 2Q 2023 245 3Q 2023 240 4Q 2023 280 1Q 2024 260 2Q 2024 1. Using the 4-quarter moving average: What is the forecast for 3Q 2023 , 4Q 2023, 1Q 2024, and 2Q 2024 3Q 2023 = (210+220+255+245)/4 = 232.5 rounded 233 4Q 2023 = (220+255+245+240)/4 = 240 1Q 2024 = (255+245+240+280)/4 = 255 2Q 2024 = (245+240+280+260)/4 = 256.25 rounded 257 2. Compute the forecast for 3Q 2023 , 4Q 2023, 1Q 2024, and 2Q 2024 using exponential smoothing (start with 3Q 2023 ) with a smoothing factor of .6. 3Q 2023 = 245 4Q 2023 = (.6 x 240) + (.4 x 245) = 242 1Q 2024 = (.6 x 280) + (.4 x 242) = 264 2Q 2024 = (.6 x 260) + (.4 x 264) = 262

There wasent much clarification on if I was to start with 3Q 2023 as if there was nothing above it or use the 245 above, so I did the question as if there were no numbers above 3Q 2023. 3. Which forecast method provides a more accurate forecast? The most accurate forecast is exponential soothing. 4. Compute the forecast for 3Q 2023 , 4Q 2023, 1Q 2024, and 2Q 2024 using a weighted moving average technique. The most recent period is weighted at .45, second most recent at .3, and 3 rd most recent at .2 and 4 th most recent at .05. (255 x .45) + (220 x .3) + (210 x .2) + (215 x .05) = 233.5 3Q 2023 = (245 x .45) + (255 x .3) + (220 x .2) + (210 x .05) = 241.25 4Q 2023 = (240 x .45) + (245 x .3) + (255 x .2) + (220 x .05) = 243.5 1Q 2024 = (280 x .45) + (240 x .3) + (245 x .2) + (255 x .05) = 259.75 2Q 2024 = (260 x .45) + (280 x .3) + (240 x .2) + (245 x .05) = 261.25 5. Compare the results from 4 to the results from 1 and 2. Now which forecast provides the more accurate forecast? Weighted average technique is more accurate 6. If the exponential smoothing is calculated using a smoothing factor of .8 will the forecast error be smaller or larger? With a smoothing factor of 0.8 it will result in a larger forecast error compared to the factor of 0.6. 3Q 2023 = 245 4Q 2023 = 241 1Q 2024 = 273 2Q 2024 = 263

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