Toys R Us Stock Price and Sales Data Analysis Assignment

CBAD 292 Homework Assignment #7 (8pt) Please complete the following questions: Q1 – Toys R Us Stock Price (4pt)  Download “Q1” Excel file from Moodle. Use this template to answer the questions (part 1 to 5) below.  Save the files as “Question Number_Last Name” (e.g. Q1_JEONG) Moving averages are often used to identify movements in stock prices. Weekly closing prices (in dollars per share) for Toys R Us for September 22, 1997, through December 8, 1997, are shown below. Week Prices ($) Week Prices ($) 09/22 34.875 11/03 33.625 09/29 35.625 11/10 35.063 10/06 34.688 11/17 34.063 10/13 33.563 11/24 34.125 10/20 32.625 12/01 33.250 10/27 34.000 12/08 32.063 1. Use a 3-week moving average to smooth the time series. Forecast the closing price for 12/15. 2. Use a 3-week weighted moving average to smooth the time series. Use a weight of .4 for the most recent period, .4 for the next period back, and .2 for the third period back. Forecast the closing price for 12/15. 3. Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing c onstant of α = .35 to smooth the time series. Forecast the closing price for 12/15. 4. Which of the three method do you prefer? (Tips: calculate and compare absolute error, squared error, and absolute percentage error).

Q2 – Sales Data (4pt)  Download “Q 2 ” Excel file from Moodle. Use this template to answer the questions (part 1 to 5) below.  Save the files as “Question Number_Last Name” (e.g. Q 2_JEONG) The following time series shows the sales of a particular product over the past 12 months: Month Sales 1 105 2 135 3 120 4 105 5 90 6 120 7 145 8 140 9 100 10 80 11 100 12 110 1. Use a 3-month moving average to smooth the time series. Forecast the sales for the month 13. 2. Use a 3-month weighted moving average to smooth the time series. Use a weight of .5 for the most recent period, .4 for the next period back, and .1 for the third period back. Forecast the sales for the month 13. 3. Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of α = .3 to smooth the time series. Forecast the sales for the month 13. 4. Which of the three method do you prefer? (Tips: calculate and compare absolute error, squared error, and absolute percentage error).

Submission Instructions:  Due Date: 11/3 (Friday) by midnight  Go to the Moodle course page and click "HW7"  Click “Add Submission”  Attach your Excel solutions  Click the "Save Changes" button so the assignment is posted to your instructor  Homework solution will be available on Moodle after the deadline

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CBAD 292 HW7

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