HW_Turkey Earthquake

EES 0836 Earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault System Disasters: Geology vs. Hollywood Introduction You are part of a team of scientists sent by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) to Turkey to investigate the hazard of earthquakes along the North Anatolian Fault System (NAF). As a geoscientist, your goal is to address key questions, including : ● Where do earthquakes occur? ● Is there some information we could use to forecast the location of the next event? ● What should we be planning for next? Learning Objectives ● Analyze past events to forecast where future events occur. (1, 2, 5, a, b, c) ● Identify locations where city planners should prepare for future earthquakes. (1, 2, 5, a) Part 1: Forecasting earthquakes We know where plate boundaries are, and we know that earthquakes occur at these boundaries. But our ability to forecast when they will occur has remained a challenge for geologists . 1. What are some methods for forecasting earthquakes? A few methods in order to predict earthquakes is by keeping an eye on few precursors that occur before the event. Some precursors are looking at the changes in the magnetic field or even by change in the land elevation. Another way is by looking at the seismic gaps which determine areas that have had earthquakes occurred in the past along the faults. The last method is by looking at the seismic waves that are occurred can help identify when they earthquake will occur. 2. Of the methods you listed, what do you think is the most promising method to use in the future? Explain your thinking. I believe the best way is to look at the seismic gaps and predict from

EES 0836 that because the other methods would require way more focus everyday. For example, if someone were to look at the precursors then that would they would have to look at every area. However, the seismic gap gives an overview of the larger area so they can determine a time more faster and efficiently. Part 2 : The data People have lived in Turkey for millennia with a rich set of historical writings and records of events. These historical accounts of disasters, and in some cases, the actual destruction of towns leading to refugee migrations, provide an unusually long record of earthquake occurrence. In this part of the activity, we will be plotting the amount of fault slip from events throughout the 1900’s and trying to forecast the location of future events . Just looking at the data included, it is difficult to see if there is any information to glean from it. To help us organize the data, we will be plotting the events from the data set into a format that would help us visualize the information more effectively . Data Set 1 : Date (years ( Position (km) parallel to fault Data source/type 1967 - 410 - / 330 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1957 - 335 - / 305 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1951 - 195 - / 130 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1944 - 305 - / 130 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1943 - 130 / 140 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1942 155 / 185 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1939 95 / 440 Historical Account + Geo mapping How to Plot : Referring to Data Set 1, the column on the left shows the years, and the middle column contains the movements during that particular earthquake. On the provided table on the next page, plot these coordinates along with their years. Accuracy matters, but don’t worry too much about precision. The information, once plotted, should be clear enough. Just make sure you work in pencil in case you need to erase . ● Locate the approximate year on the Y axis.

EES 0836 2. Can you forecast where the next earthquake will occur? After the 1967 earthquake a rough estimate of the earthquake to occur is in 10 years but it is not possible to give an exact year 3. Explain why. If you can identify a possible location for this event, where do you forecast it will occur? It is not possible to predict a year an earthquake will occur because there is no clear evidence to prove that an earthquake will occur, they have no pattern of where earthquakes will occur because it is randomized. Next location roughly will be -500s/ -410, which is around Yalova 4. How would you explain to the people living in the area you identified that they need to be earthquake ready? For people who live near the area where earthquakes occur it is important to be alert and prepared from the start. Earthquakes are unpredictable because they can happen at any time, so always take it seriously. Just because your first experience of an earthquake did not affect you does not mean it won ’ t the second time. So when the first earthquake occurred your house did not break but you never know the second earthquake may destroy your home. This is why it is important to have insurance because the risk of injuries is higher in these areas.

EES 0836 Part 3 : Oh, wait, there is one more event ... You might have noticed that the most recent earthquake from the table was over 50 years ago. Let’s look at one of those events. Plot this event on the same table as Part 2 . Date (years ( Position (km) parallel to fault Data source/type 1999 - 460 - / 280 Historical Account + Geo mapping Q uestions 1. Did this event fit into your prediction from Part 2? Explain how. This event sort of fit in my prediction from part 2 because in my estimation the distance was going far to the left based on the graph and it did. The difference was that I believed it would go farther down to -500 not -280. 2. Using this new information, can you make a prediction as to where the next earthquake will occur? The events occur in a very odd (random) pattern so it is not possible to predict the next earthquake but the .distance from -460 could move up to -500/-400. 3. At which point did you think you had enough data to make this prediction? Explain your thinking. The points of 1939,1942 and 1943 were consistent with each other meaning the lines moved to the left and the years were accurate from each other. However in reality, there i snot enough data to make these predictions because the number of years frequency changed and so did the positions. 4. If you were a government official tasked with public safety, what steps might you suggest to the people living in Istanbul? I would make sure the buildings are established in the right locations. The frequency of the buildings shakings should not match with the seismic waves because this would cause significant damage to the