Cost planning Assignment#4
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Centennial College *
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Apr 3, 2024
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1. Complete the PERT Problem:
Solve for 99.9% Surety of Cost
outlined in the course page
Using PERT in Cost Estimation
.
Ans: Given
:
Av cost = (1 + 4(8) + 9)/6 = 42/6 = $7,000
Av cost = (3+4(12) +15)/6 = 66/6 = $11,000
Av Cost = 7,000
Variance of 1 = ((9 – 1) / 6)
2
= 1.77
Variance of 2 = (15 – 3) / 6)
2
= 4
Variance of 3 = 0.444
Total Mean Cost = 25
Total Variance = 6.21 & std dev = 2.49 (in thousands of dollars)
This means that we can represent the total Project Costs as a normal curve with a mean of $25,000 and a standard deviation of 2.49
The question asked about the probability of completing this project under $30,000. So 30,000 is 5,000 beyond the mean cost of 25,000. That's approximately 2 sigmas away. 30 –
25 = 5 from the mean and therefor z = 5/2.49 = 2.008
Solution
:
From the standard normal table, z of 2.008 corresponds to a probability of .977
Hence P (cost <30K) = 97.7% meaning that the probability of completing the project below $30,0000 is 97.7%
From standard normal table,
The z value which corresponds to a probability of 99.9% is 3.0
Total Mean Cost (Cm) = $25,000
Standard Deviation = $2,490
Required Probability = 99.9%
Normal derivation (z) for 99.9% = 3.0
Total Quoted Cost (CQ),
z= (CQ – Cm) / standard deviation
3 = (CQ – 25000) / 2490
CQ = $32,470
The quoted cost for 99.9% surety is $32,470.
2. Complete the following from Week 8-9 Problems on Cost Estimation and Budgeting that is available in Week 8 >Text
1.
Discussion Questions: 6
2.
Problems: 3-7
DISCUSSION QUESTION:
Q 6. Think of an example of parametric estimating in your personal experience, such as the use
of a cost multiplier based on a similar, past cost. Did parametric estimating work or not? Discuss the reasons why. This is a personal example question and should only be applied to students with some project experience.
Ans: An example that I can think of in my past personal experience, is when I was able to find out the cost of waterproofing treatment of a larger project based on the rates of similar treatment in a much smaller previous project. Parametric estimating did work, it costed less marginally less than what was estimated. The reasons why it costed less than the estimated value was because we were dealing with a much larger area than the previous project. More the quantity to be done, lesser will be the expense.
PROBLEMS:
Q 3. Calculate the direct cost of labour for the project team using the following data. What are the costs for the individual project team members? What is the fully loaded cost of labour?
Ans: Name
Hours Needed
Overhead Charge
Personal Time rate
Hourly Rate ($/hr)
Fully Loaded Labor cost
Sandy
60
1.35
1.12
18
$1,632.96
Chuck
80
1.75
1.12
31
$4,860.8
Bob
80
1.35
0
9
$972
Penny
40
1.75
1.12
30
$2,352
Fully loaded cost for Sandy = (Hrs needed) x (OH Charge) x (Personal Time rate) x (Hrly Rate) = 60 x 1.35 x 1.12 x 18
= $1,632.96
Fully loaded cost for Chuck = (Hrs needed) x (OH Charge) x (Personal Time rate) x (Hrly Rate)
= 80 x 1.75 x 1.12 x 31
= $4,860.8
Fully loaded cost for Bob = (Hrs needed) x (OH Charge) x (Personal Time rate) x (Hrly Rate)
= 80 x 1.35 x 9
= $972
Fully loaded cost for Penny = (Hrs needed) x (OH Charge) x (Personal Time rate) x (Hrly Rate)
= 40 x 1.75 x 1.12 x 30
= $2,352
Fully loaded cost of labour
= $9,817.76
Q 4: Assume that overhead is charged on a flat-rate basis. Each member of the project is assigned an overhead charge of $150/week. What would the fully loaded cost of labour be for an employee, given that she is assigned to the project for 200 hours at $10.50/hour?
Ans: Project time = 200 hrs = 200/8 = 25 days
Consider working for 5 days a week = 25/5 = 5 weeks,
The project time will be 5 weeks.
Total direct labour cost = (Hrly rate x total hrs) + Overhead charge = ($10.5 x 200 hrs) + ($150 x 5 weeks)
= $2100 + $750
= $2850
Q 5: Calculate the fully loaded labour costs for members of your project team using the
following data. Who is the most expensive member of your team? What proportion of
the overall fully loaded cost of labour is taken up by this individual?
Ans:
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Name
Hours Needed
Overhead Charge
Personal Time Rate
Hourly Rate ($/hr)
Fully loaded Labor cost
Todd
150
1.45
1.15
36
$9,004.5
Stan
150
1.7
0
12
$3,060
Mary
120
1.45
0
21.5
$3,741
Alice
100
1.7
1.15
24
$4,692
Fully loaded cost for Todd = (Hrs needed) x (OH Charge) x (Personal Time rate) x (Hrly Rate)
= 150 x 1.45 x 1.15 x 36
= $9,004.5
Fully loaded cost for Stan
= (Hrs needed) x (OH Charge) x (Personal Time rate) x (Hrly Rate)
= 150 x 1.7 x 12
= $3,060
Fully loaded cost for Mary = (Hrs needed) x (OH Charge) x (Personal Time rate) x (Hrly Rate)
= 120 x 1.45 x 21.5
= $3,741
Fully loaded cost for Alice = (Hrs needed) x (OH Charge) x (Personal Time rate) x (Hrly Rate)
= 100 x 1.7 x 1.15 x 24
= $4,692
Total fully loaded labor cost = $9,004.5 + $3,060 + $3,741 + $4,692 = 20,497.5
Todd’s proportion of total fully loaded cost of labor = (9004.5 / 20497.5) x 100
= 43.92 %
The most expensive member of the team is Todd. He takes up to 43.92 % of the overall fully loaded cost of labor.
Q 6: Using the following information about work package budgets, complete the overall
time-phased budget for your project. (All cost figures are in $ 000’s.) Which are the
weeks with the greatest budget expense?
Ans: Task
Budget
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
A
5
3
2
B
8
1
4
3
1
C
12
2
7
3
D
7
3
3
1
E
14
5
5
2
2
F
6
1
2
3
Plan
52
4
8
13
12
6
3
4
3
Cumulative
4
12
25
37
43
46
50
53
Plan (weekly basis) = ∑
Task A
Task F
❑
The weeks with the greatest budget expense = Week 3 has the biggest planned expense($13000)
followed by Week 4 ($12000).
Q 7: Given the following information, complete a time-phased budget for your project.
(All cost figures are in $ 000’s.) What are weekly planned and cumulative costs for
the project?
Work Package
Budget
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Staffing
5
4
1
Blueprinting
8
1
6
1
Prototype
12
2
8
2
Full Design
24
4
10
10
Ans:
Work Package
Budget
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Staffing
5
4
1
Blueprinting
8
1
6
1
Prototype
12
2
8
2
Full Design
24
4
10
10
Plan
49
5
9
13
12
10
Cumulative
5
14
27
39
49
Plan (weekly basis) = ∑
Task A
Task F
❑
3. You are working on a project to build a new home. You are now at point of the estimating costs, and immediately after you need to determine your budget.
The project plan has listed four estimation techniques (analogous, parametric, bottom-up and three-point estimate PERT) as the techniques to be used. The cost plan also has the level 1 of the WBS as the control accounts and Allowed 5% Management Reserve based on top management decision. There are contingency reserves where applicable that have been added.
Determine the total budget based upon below
During the estimation process you have gathered the following information:
The company where you work has built other houses in the same neighbourhood last year, and the historical data from one of a similar size shows the cost of designing (draft and updates) was $2500 total. The complete landscaping
was $1200.
The structure will be outsourced to the company that has been building houses in this area this past year and have given you the following estimates: Excavation (inc. Levelling)
=$10,000, Foundation
=$8,000, Framing
=$7,000, Dry walling
=$5,000 and Roof (inc. finishes)
= $10,000. Each component estimate has an identified risk of $1000, $900, $700, $600 and $1500 (respectively) occurring and a 30% chance of occurring. Be sure to add in these contingencies.
For the plumbing
, your company will give you a new hire (resource) that makes $80 an hour and has given you an estimated time of completion of 20 hours and material cost of $1800. His overhead is 50% over and above his own hourly rate. As it is your first time working with him, you asked him to give you a pessimistic and optimistic estimate also (28 hrs and 18 hrs). Calculate what contingency amount should be used given that your manager wants 85% certainty in his labour estimate.
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The electrical
piece will be performed by a resource from the company that is currently working on another that should finish before starting working with you. This electrician has given you an estimate of $1,500 for the complete job. A risk has been identified for this activity that was assessed to cost $500. It has a 40% chance of occurring, (What is the contingency put aside for
this risk?)
Painting: Material
= $350, 2 human resources
required @ $25 an hour for of 15 hours each.
Windows: 3 windows
@ $120, 3 windows
@ $60 and installation
= $500
Ans: Tasks
Cost
Risk
Probability
Contingency
Total Cost
Designing (draft and updates)
$2500
$2500
Landscaping
$1200
$1200
Excavation (inc. Levelling)
$10,000,
$1000
30%
$300
$10300
Foundation
$8,000
$900
30%
$270
$8270
Framing
$7,000
$700
30%
$210
$7210
Dry walling
$5,000
$600
30%
$180
$5180
Roof (inc. finishes)
$10,000
$1500
30%
$450
$10450
Plumbing
(@ $80/hr)
$1680
50%
$840
$2,520
Plumbing material
$1800
$1800
Electrical
$1,500
$500
40%
$200
$1700
Painting: Material
$350
$350
Painting: 2 human resources (@ $25/hr)
$750
$750
Windows: 3 windows (@ $120/no.)
$360
$360
Windows: 3 $180
$180
windows
(@ $60/no.)
Windows: installation
$500
$500
Total Cost
= $2500 + $1200 + $10300 + $8270 + $7210 + $5180 + $10450 + $2,520 + $1800
+ $1700 + $350 + $750 + $360 + $180 + $500
= $53,270
Working calculations: 1) Plumbing labor duration,
PERT = (T
P +(4T
ML
) +T
O
)/6 = (28 + 4(20) + 18)/6 = 21hrs
Plumbing cost = 21 x 80 = $1680
2) Painting: 2 human resources (@ $25/hr),
Painting labor cost = (25 x 15) + (25 x 15)
= $750
3) Windows: 3 windows (@ $120/no.),
Cost = (3 x 120) = $360
4) Windows: 3 windows (@ $60/no.),
Cost
= (3 x 60) = $180
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C. $12,600
O D. $15,100
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• SV = EV - PV; SPI = EV/PV
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CR = SPI x CPI
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Variable Cells
Final
Objective
Coefficient
Allowable
Allowable
Reduced Cost
Cell
$8$2
$B$3
$854
Name
Value
Increase
Decrease
1E+30
1.
Product 1
-2
2
Product 2
175
16430
Product 3
-1.5
9
1.5
1E+30
Constraints
Final
Shadow
Constraint
Allowable
Allowable
Cell
Name
Value
Price
R.H.Side
Increase
Decrease
SHS9
Resource A
100
16430
90
SH$10
Resource B
525
s00
1E+30
340
SH$11
Resource C
700
1.75
700
390
160
Applying the 100% rule,
The shadow price remains valid
because the total change in the constraint right-hand sides
does not exceed
10
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