Concept explainers
(a)
Interpretation: The company has decided to build a second plant, as full capacity has been achieved by the present manufacturing unit. The second plant may be large or small, located at a nearby area and the demand may be low or high, while
(b)
Interpretation: The company has decided to build a second plant, as full capacity has been achieved by the present manufacturing unit. The second plant may be large or small, located at a nearby area and the demand may be low or high, while
Concept Introduction: The measure of likelihood that an event will happen, in a random experiment is called probability.
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Operations Management: Processes and Supply Chains, Student Value Edition Plus MyLab Operations Management with Pearson eText -- Access Card Package (12th Edition)
- II. + James Scott is considering the possibility of opening a small outfit shop on Sta. Maria District, a few blocks from St. Green Ville College. She has located on a mall that attracts students. To open a small shop, medium sized shop, or no shop at all are her options. The market can be good, average, or bad. The probabilities for these three possibilities are 30% for good market, 50% for an average market, and 20% for bad market. The profit or loss for the said market conditions are given in the table below; ALTERNATIVE Small Shop Medium Sized Shop No Shop GOOD 150,000 200,000 0 AVERAGE 50,000 70,000 0 a) Calculate the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) b) What do you recommend? BAD -80,000 -120,000 0arrow_forward#6) A group of medical professionals is considering constructing a private clinic. If a patient demand for the clinic is high, the physicians could realize a net profit of $120,000. If the demand is low, they could lose $55,000. Of course, they do not have to proceed at all, in which case there is no cost. In the absence of any market data, the best the physicians can guess is that there is a 50-50 chance the demand would be high. a) Create a decision tree. b) What should the medical professionals do? What is the payoff? c) The physicians have been approached by a market research firm that offers to perform a study of the market at a fee of $5,000. The market researchers claim that their experience enables them to use Bayes’ theorem to make the following statements of probability: -probability of high demand given a positive survey result = 0.82 -probability of low demand given a positive survey result = 0.18 -probability of high demand given a negative survey result = 0.11…arrow_forwardA manufacturing plant has reached full capacity. The company must build a second plant—eithersmall or large—at a nearby location. The demand is likely to be high or low. The probability of low demand is 0.4. If demand is low, the large plant has a present value of $6 million and the small plant, $9 million. If demand is high, the large plant pays off with a present value of $20 million and the small plant with a present value of only $11 million. However, the small plant can be expanded later if demand proves to be high, for a present value of $13 million.arrow_forward
- c. From the following decision tree, develop a payoff table and calculate: * Maximax, Minimax regret, Maximin, and EMV. ORs. 50,000 Good conditions (0.60) Poor conditions (0.40) -O Rs. 30,000 Apartment Building Good conditions (0.60) O Rs. 100,000 Office building Poor conditions (0.40) Purchase ORs -40,000 Warchouse Good conditions (0.60) Rs.30, 000 Poor conditions (0.40) O Rs. 10,000arrow_forwardThe Hard to Beat Bakery is deciding whether to buy or repair an existing oven thatthey have been using for over 8 years. If they elect to repair, it will cost the entity$950,000 and either of two outcomes is likely: 1. A 20% probability it will perform okay and generate revenues of$10,000,000, or 2. An 80% chance that it will be partially restored and generate revenue of$2,000,000. If on the other hand however, they purchase a new oven, they can either buy animported oven for $3,500,000 or they can buy a locally made one for $2,200,000.If the elect to purchase the imported oven, production will earn them revenues of$15,550,000, but if they buy the locally made oven, there is a 70% likelihood thatit perform as expected and generate revenues of $12,000,000; and a 30% chancethat it will not and generate revenues of $6,000,000. Required: 1. Draw a decision tree of this problem and determine the expected value.2. Advise the management of the Bakery on how to proceed.3. Briefly discuss the…arrow_forwardA manufacturing plant has reached full capacity. The company must build a second plant—either small or large—at a nearby location. The demand is likely to be high or low. The probability of low demand is 0.3. If demand is low, the large plant has a present value of $5 million and the small plant, apresent value of $8 million. If demand is high, the large plant pays off with a present value of $18 million, and the small plant with a present value of only $10 million. However, the small plant can be expanded later if demand proves to be high for a present value of $14 million.a. Draw a decision tree for this problem.b. What should management do to achieve the highest expected payoff?arrow_forward
- Payoff Table Decision Alternatives Demand Low Medium High Small, d1 400 500 600 Medium, d2 100 600 800 Large, d3 -300 400 1200 1). If nothing is known about the demand probabilities, what are the recommended decision using the Maximax (optimistic), Maximin (pessimistic) and Equally Likely? 2). If P(low) = 0.20, P(medium) = 0.35, and P(high) = 0.45. What is the recommended decision using the expected monetary value approach? 3). What is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)?arrow_forwardA shop will decide to sell either product A or B or C in the coming season. Demand in that season can be high, average or low. Payoff table below shows the related returns in TL. You will create your own data for Product B row:)) States of nature Alternatives High demand Average demand Low demand Product A 2000 1000 -200 Product B Product C 1000 500 400 a. What would be the decision according to Minimax Regret? b. What is the maximum amount of money the company should pay for perfect information? (Assign probabilities for high, average and low demand)arrow_forwardCome up with a decision using each of the different criteria under conditions of uncertainty using the table below. The payoff values are expressed as LOSSES.arrow_forward
- 2. A toy manufacturer has three different mechanisms that can be installed in a doll that it sells. The different mechanisms have three different setup costs (overheads) and variable costs and, therefore, the profit from the dolls is dependent on the volume of sales. The anticipated payoffs are as follows. Light Demand 0.25 $325,000 $300,000 -$400,000 Heavy Demand 0.3 Probability Wind-up action Pneumatic action Electrical action Moderate Demand 0.45 $190,000 $420,000 S170,000 $400,000 $800,000 $240,000 a. What is the EMV of each decision alternative? b. Which action should be selected? c. What is the expected value with perfect information? d. What is the expected value of perfect information? e. What is the expected opportunity loss?arrow_forwardBill Holliday isn't sure what he should do. He can build a four-apartment building, a two-apartment building, gather additional information, or simply do nothing. If he gathers additional information, the results could be favorable or unfavorable, but it would cost him $3,000 to gather it. Bill thinks there is a 50-50 chance that the information will be favorable. If the rental market is favorable, Bill will earn $15,000 with four apartments or $5,000 with two. He does not have the financial resources to pursue both options, but with an unfavorable rental market he would lose $20,000 with four apartments or $10,000 with two. Without gathering additional information, Bill estimates the probability of a favorable rental market to be 0.7. A favorable survey report would increase the probability of a favorable rental market to 0.9. Moreover, an unfavorable report of the additional information would decrease the probability of a favorable income market to 0.4. Of course, Bill can forget…arrow_forward* 00 Miles is considering buying a new pickup truck for his lawn service firm. The economy in town seems to be growing, and he is wondering whether he should opt for a subcompact, compact, or full-size pickup truck. The smaller truck would have better fuel economy, but would sacrifice capacity and some durability. A friend at the Bureau of Economic Research told him that there is a 30% chance of lower gas prices in his area this year, a 20% chance of higher gas prices, and a 50% chance that gas prices will stay roughly unchanged. Based on this information, Miles has developed a decision table that indicates the profit amount he would end up with after a year for each combination of truck and gas prices. States of Nature Lower gas Gas prices Higher gas Alternatives prices unchanged prices Subcompact 19,000 000 Compact OGOʻST 000 Full size 000'9 Probability 0.3 0.5 0.2 MacBook Air 000 000 DD F7 08 F4 F5 6 %24 ) 9 | K. D.arrow_forward
- Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,