Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
9th Edition
ISBN: 9781119320975
Author: Roberta S. Russell, Bernard W. Taylor III
Publisher: WILEY
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Textbook Question
Chapter 9, Problem 10Q
Which method for determining activity time estimates, deterministic or probabilistic, do you perceive to be preferable? Explain.
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Scenario
You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill.
Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials
they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast
error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%.
You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on
five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential
Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given
data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast.
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next
month.
Remember to select the forecasting technique that produces the forecast error nearest to zero. For example:
a. Naïve Forecast is 230 and the Forecast Error is -15.
b. 3-Month Moving Forecast is 290 and the Forecast Error is -75.
c. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .2 is 308 and the Forecast Error is -93.
d. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .5 is 279 and the Forecast Error is -64.
e. Seasonal Forecast is 297 and the Forecast Error is -82.
The forecast for the next month would be 230 as the Naïve Forecast had the Forecast Error closest to zero with a
-15. This forecasting technique was the best performing technique for that month. You do not need to do any
external analysis-the forecast error for each strategy is already calculated for you in the tables below.
Naïve
Month Period
Actual
Demand
Naïve Forecast
Error
3-
Month
Moving
Forecast
3-
Month
Moving…
Scenario
You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill.
Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials
they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast
error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%.
You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on
five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential
Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given
data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast.
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…
Chapter 9 Solutions
Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
Ch. 9 - Why is CPM/PERT a popular and widely applied...Ch. 9 - What is the purpose of a CPM/PERT network?Ch. 9 - Why are dummy activities used in a CPM/PERT...Ch. 9 - What is the critical path, and what is its...Ch. 9 - What is slack, and how is it computed?Ch. 9 - How are the mean activity times and activity...Ch. 9 - How is total project variance determined in...Ch. 9 - What is the purpose of project crashing analysis?Ch. 9 - Describe the process of manually crashing a...Ch. 9 - Which method for determining activity time...
Ch. 9 - Explain how a Gantt chart differs from a CPM/PERT...Ch. 9 - Discuss the relationship of direct and indirect...Ch. 9 - Describe the limitations and disadvantages of...Ch. 9 - Describe the difference between activity-on-node...Ch. 9 - Identify and briefly describe the major elements...Ch. 9 - Select an everyday project you are familiar with...Ch. 9 - Prepare a WBS for a spaghetti with meatballs...Ch. 9 - Construct a Gantt chart for the project described...Ch. 9 - Construct a Gantt chart for the project described...Ch. 9 - Use the project activities that follow to...Ch. 9 - Construct a network from the information in the...Ch. 9 - For the network in Problem 9.4, determine the...Ch. 9 - Given the following network with activity times in...Ch. 9 - Given the following network with activity times in...Ch. 9 - A marketing firm is planning to conduct a survey...Ch. 9 - In one of the little-known battles of the Civil...Ch. 9 - A group of developers is building a new shopping...Ch. 9 - The management of a factory is going to erect a...Ch. 9 - Given the following network and probabilistic...Ch. 9 - The Farmers American Bank of Leesburg is planning...
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