MyLab Math plus Pearson eText -- Standalone Access Card -- for Finite Mathematics & Its Applications (12th Edition)
12th Edition
ISBN: 9780134765723
Author: Larry J. Goldstein, David I. Schneider, Martha J. Siegel, Steven Hair
Publisher: PEARSON
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Chapter 8.3, Problem 12E
In Exercises 9–12, convert the absorbing stochastic matrix to standard form.
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3. Bayesian Inference – Updating Beliefs
A medical test for a rare disease has the following characteristics:
Sensitivity (true positive rate): 99%
Specificity (true negative rate): 98%
The disease occurs in 0.5% of the population.
A patient receives a positive test result.
Questions:
a) Define the relevant events and use Bayes’ Theorem to compute the probability that the patient actually has the disease.b) Explain why the result might seem counterintuitive, despite the high sensitivity and specificity.c) Discuss how prior probabilities influence posterior beliefs in Bayesian inference.d) Suppose a second, independent test with the same accuracy is conducted and is also positive. Update the probability that the patient has the disease.
Chapter 8 Solutions
MyLab Math plus Pearson eText -- Standalone Access Card -- for Finite Mathematics & Its Applications (12th Edition)
Ch. 8.1 - 1. Is a stochastic matrix?
Ch. 8.1 - 2. Learning Process An elementary learning process...Ch. 8.1 - In Exercises 1-6, determine whether or not the...Ch. 8.1 - In Exercises 1-6, determine whether or not the...Ch. 8.1 - In Exercises 1-6, determine whether or not the...Ch. 8.1 - Prob. 4ECh. 8.1 - In Exercises 1-6, determine whether or not the...Ch. 8.1 - Prob. 6ECh. 8.1 - In Exercises 7–12, write a stochastic matrix...Ch. 8.1 - Prob. 8E
Ch. 8.1 - Prob. 9ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 10ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 11ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 12ECh. 8.1 - In Exercises 13–18, draw a transition diagram...Ch. 8.1 - Prob. 14ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 15ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 16ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 17ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 18ECh. 8.1 - Woman in the Labor Force Referring to Example 5,...Ch. 8.1 - Prob. 20ECh. 8.1 - Cell Phone Usag e A cell phone provider classifies...Ch. 8.1 - Health Plan Option A university faculty health...Ch. 8.1 - Population Movement The Southwestern states were...Ch. 8.1 - Prob. 24ECh. 8.1 - T-Maze Each day, mice are put into a T-maze (a...Ch. 8.1 - 26. Analysis of a Poem In 1913, Markov analyzed a...Ch. 8.1 - Taxi Zones Refer to Example 7 (taxi zones). If,...Ch. 8.1 - Fitness A group of physical fitness devotees works...Ch. 8.1 - 29. Political Views According to the Higher...Ch. 8.1 - 30. Student Residences According to the Higher...Ch. 8.1 - Prob. 31ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 32ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 33ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 34ECh. 8.1 - Ehrenfest Urn Model The Ehrenfest urn model was...Ch. 8.1 - Prob. 36ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 37ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 38ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 39ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 40ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 41ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 42ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 43ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 44ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 45ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 46ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 47ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 48ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 49ECh. 8.1 - Repeat Exercise 49 for the matrices of Exercise...Ch. 8.1 - Prob. 51ECh. 8.1 - Prob. 52ECh. 8.2 - Solutions can be found following the section...Ch. 8.2 - Solutions can be found following the section...Ch. 8.2 - Solutions can be found following the section...Ch. 8.2 - In Exercises 16, determine whether or not the...Ch. 8.2 - In Exercises 16, determine whether or not the...Ch. 8.2 - In Exercises 16, determine whether or not the...Ch. 8.2 - In Exercises 16, determine whether or not the...Ch. 8.2 - In Exercises 1–6, determine whether or not the...Ch. 8.2 - In Exercises 16, determine whether or not the...Ch. 8.2 - In Exercises 7–12, find the stable distribution...Ch. 8.2 - In Exercises 712, find the stable distribution for...Ch. 8.2 - In Exercises 712, find the stable distribution for...Ch. 8.2 - In Exercises 7–12, find the stable distribution...Ch. 8.2 - In Exercises 712, find the stable distribution for...Ch. 8.2 - In Exercises 712, find the stable distribution for...Ch. 8.2 - Prob. 13ECh. 8.2 - Voter Patterns Refer to Exercise 24 of Section...Ch. 8.2 - Prob. 15ECh. 8.2 - Computer Reliability A certain university has a...Ch. 8.2 - Brand Loyalty Suppose that 60% of people who own a...Ch. 8.2 - 18. Transportation Modes Commuters can get into...Ch. 8.2 - Weather Patterns The changes in weather from day...Ch. 8.2 - 20. Women in the Labor Force Refer to the...Ch. 8.2 - 21. Car Rentals The Day-by-Day car rental agency...Ch. 8.2 - 22. Fitness Refer to Exercise 28 of Section 8.1....Ch. 8.2 - Genetics With respect to a certain gene,...Ch. 8.2 - 24. Weather Patterns The day-to-day changes in...Ch. 8.2 - Prob. 25ECh. 8.2 - Prob. 26ECh. 8.2 - Birth Weights Refer to Exercise 33 of Section 8.1....Ch. 8.2 - Bird Migrations Figure 5 describes the migration...Ch. 8.2 - Prob. 29ECh. 8.2 - Prob. 30ECh. 8.2 - Prob. 31ECh. 8.2 - Prob. 32ECh. 8.3 - 1. When an absorbing stochastic matrix is...Ch. 8.3 - Prob. 2CYUCh. 8.3 - Is [1.400.2.10.4.9] an absorbing stochastic...Ch. 8.3 - In Exercises 14, determine whether the transition...Ch. 8.3 - In Exercises 14, determine whether the transition...Ch. 8.3 - In Exercises 1–4, determine whether the transition...Ch. 8.3 - Prob. 4ECh. 8.3 - Prob. 5ECh. 8.3 - In Exercises 58, determine whether the given...Ch. 8.3 - Prob. 7ECh. 8.3 - Prob. 8ECh. 8.3 - Prob. 9ECh. 8.3 - Prob. 10ECh. 8.3 - Prob. 11ECh. 8.3 - In Exercises 912, convert the absorbing stochastic...Ch. 8.3 - The matrices in Exercises 1318 are absorbing...Ch. 8.3 - Prob. 14ECh. 8.3 - Prob. 15ECh. 8.3 - The matrices in Exercises 1318 are absorbing...Ch. 8.3 - Prob. 17ECh. 8.3 - Prob. 18ECh. 8.3 - Prob. 19ECh. 8.3 - Gambler’s Ruin Exercises 19 and 20 refer to...Ch. 8.3 - Gambler’s Ruin Exercises 19 and 20 refer to...Ch. 8.3 - Prob. 22ECh. 8.3 - Mouse in a Maze A mouse is placed in one of the...Ch. 8.3 - Prob. 24ECh. 8.3 - 25. Class Standings Suppose that the ...Ch. 8.3 - Quality Control A manufacturer of precise...Ch. 8.3 - Prob. 27ECh. 8.3 - Job Mobility The managers in a company are...Ch. 8.3 - Prob. 29ECh. 8.3 - Prob. 30ECh. 8.3 - Collecting Quotations A soft drink manufacturer...Ch. 8.3 - Tennis Consider a game of tennis between player A...Ch. 8.3 - Prob. 33ECh. 8.3 - Repeat Exercise 33 for the matrix...Ch. 8 - 1. What is a Markov process?
Ch. 8 - Prob. 2FCCECh. 8 - Prob. 3FCCECh. 8 - Prob. 4FCCECh. 8 - Define regular stochastic matrix.Ch. 8 - 6. Define the stable matrix and the stable...Ch. 8 - Prob. 7FCCECh. 8 - Prob. 8FCCECh. 8 - Prob. 9FCCECh. 8 - Prob. 10FCCECh. 8 - Prob. 11FCCECh. 8 - In Exercises 16, determine whether or not the...Ch. 8 - Prob. 2RECh. 8 - Prob. 3RECh. 8 - Prob. 4RECh. 8 - Prob. 5RECh. 8 - In Exercises 16, determine whether or not the...Ch. 8 - Prob. 7RECh. 8 - Prob. 8RECh. 8 - Prob. 9RECh. 8 - Quality Control In a certain factory, some...Ch. 8 - Prob. 11RECh. 8 - 12. Mouse in a House Figure 1 gives the layout of...Ch. 8 - 13. Which of the following is the stable...Ch. 8 - Prob. 14RECh. 8 - Prob. 15RECh. 8 - Prob. 16RECh. 8 - Prob. 17RECh. 8 - Prob. 18RECh. 8 - Prob. 19RECh. 8 - Prob. 20RECh. 8 - Prob. 21RECh. 8 - Prob. 22RECh. 8 - Prob. 1PCh. 8 - Prob. 2PCh. 8 - Prob. 3PCh. 8 - We will now show that the product of any two ...Ch. 8 - Prob. 5PCh. 8 - We will now show that the product of any two ...Ch. 8 - Prob. 7P
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