FIRST COURSE IN PROBABILITY (LOOSELEAF)
10th Edition
ISBN: 9780134753751
Author: Ross
Publisher: PEARSON
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Textbook Question
Chapter 8, Problem 8.18P
Repeat part (a) of Problem 8.2 when it is known that the variance of a students test score is equal to 25.
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Starting with the finished version of Example 6.2, attached, change the decision criterion to "maximize expected utility," using an exponential utility function with risk tolerance $5,000,000. Display certainty equivalents on the tree.
a. Keep doubling the risk tolerance until the company's best strategy is the same as with the EMV criterion—continue with development and then market if successful.
The risk tolerance must reach $ 160,000,000 before the risk averse company acts the same as the EMV-maximizing company.
b. With a risk tolerance of $320,000,000, the company views the optimal strategy as equivalent to receiving a sure $____________ , even though the EMV from the original strategy (with no risk tolerance) is $ 59,200.
Starting with the finished version of Example 6.2, attached, change the decision criterion to "maximize expected utility," using an exponential utility function with risk tolerance $5,000,000. Display certainty equivalents on the tree.
a. Keep doubling the risk tolerance until the company's best strategy is the same as with the EMV criterion—continue with development and then market if successful.
The risk tolerance must reach $ ____________ before the risk averse company acts the same as the EMV-maximizing company.
b. With a risk tolerance of $320,000,000, the company views the optimal strategy as equivalent to receiving a sure $____________ , even though the EMV from the original strategy (with no risk tolerance) is $ ___________ .
A television network earns an average of $14 million each season from a hit program and loses an average of $8 million each season on a program that turns out to be a flop. Of all programs picked up by this network in recent years, 25% turn out to be hits and 75% turn out to be flops. At a cost of C dollars, a market research firm will analyze a pilot episode of a prospective program and issue a report predicting whether the given program will end up being a hit. If the program is actually going to be a hit, there is a 75% chance that the market researchers will predict the program to be a hit. If the program is actually going to be a flop, there is only a 30% chance that the market researchers will predict the program to be a hit.
What is the maximum value of C that the network should be willing to pay the market research firm? Enter your answer in dollars, not in million dollars.
$ __________
Calculate EVPI for this decision problem. Enter your answer in dollars, not in million…
Chapter 8 Solutions
FIRST COURSE IN PROBABILITY (LOOSELEAF)
Ch. 8 - Suppose that X is a random variable with mean and...Ch. 8 - From past experience, a professor knows that the...Ch. 8 - Use the central limit theorem to solve part (c) of...Ch. 8 - Let X1,...,X20 be independent Poisson random...Ch. 8 - Fifty numbers are rounded off to the nearest...Ch. 8 - A die is continually rolled until the total sum of...Ch. 8 - A person has 100 light bulbs whose lifetimes are...Ch. 8 - In Problem 8.7, suppose that it takes a random...Ch. 8 - If X is a gamma random variable with parameters...Ch. 8 - Civil engineers believe that W, the amount of...
Ch. 8 - Many people believe that the daily change of price...Ch. 8 - We have 100 components that we will put in use in...Ch. 8 - Student scores on exams given by a certain...Ch. 8 - A certain component is critical to the operation...Ch. 8 - An insurance company has 10.000 automobile...Ch. 8 - A.J. has 20 jobs that she must do in sequence,...Ch. 8 - Redo Example 5b under the assumption that the...Ch. 8 - Repeat part (a) of Problem 8.2 when it is known...Ch. 8 - A lake contains 4 distinct types of fish. Suppose...Ch. 8 - If X is a nonne9ative random variable with mean...Ch. 8 - Let X be a nonnegative random variable. Prove that...Ch. 8 - Prob. 8.22PCh. 8 - Let X be a Poisson random variable with mean 20....Ch. 8 - Prob. 8.24PCh. 8 - Prob. 8.25PCh. 8 - If f(x) is an Increasing and g(x) is a decreasing...Ch. 8 - If L(p) is the Lorenz curve associated with the...Ch. 8 - Suppose that L(p) is the Lorenz curve associated...Ch. 8 - If X has variance 2, then , the positive square...Ch. 8 - If X has mean and standard deviation , the ratio...Ch. 8 - Compute the measurement signal-to-noise ratio-that...Ch. 8 - Let Zn,n1, be a sequence of random variables and...Ch. 8 - Prob. 8.5TECh. 8 - Prob. 8.6TECh. 8 - Prob. 8.7TECh. 8 - Explain why a gamma random variable with...Ch. 8 - Prob. 8.9TECh. 8 - If X is a Poisson random variable with mean , show...Ch. 8 - Prob. 8.11TECh. 8 - Prob. 8.12TECh. 8 - Prob. 8.13TECh. 8 - Prob. 8.14TECh. 8 - If f and g are density functions that are positive...Ch. 8 - Prob. 8.16TECh. 8 - The number of automobiles sold weekly at a certain...Ch. 8 - Prob. 8.2STPECh. 8 - If E[X]=75E[Y]=75Var(X)=10var(Y)=12cov(X,Y)=3 give...Ch. 8 - Prob. 8.4STPECh. 8 - Prob. 8.5STPECh. 8 - Prob. 8.6STPECh. 8 - Prob. 8.7STPECh. 8 - Prob. 8.8STPECh. 8 - Prob. 8.9STPECh. 8 - A tobacco company claims that the amount of...Ch. 8 - Prob. 8.11STPECh. 8 - Prob. 8.12STPECh. 8 - The strong law of large numbers states that with...Ch. 8 - Each new book donated to a library must be...Ch. 8 - Prove Chebyshevs sum inequality, which says that...
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- Two construction companies are bidding against one another for the right to construct a new community center building. The first construction company, Fine Line Homes, believes that its competitor, Buffalo Valley Construction, will place a bid for this project according to the distribution shown in this table: Buffalo Valley's Bid Bid Probability $160,000 0.2 $165,000 0.5 $170,000 0.2 $175,000 0.1 Furthermore, Fine Line Homes estimates that it will cost $160,000 for its own company to construct this building. Given its fine reputation and long-standing service within the local community, Fine Line Homes believes that it will likely be awarded the project in the event that it and Buffalo Valley Construction submit exactly the same bids. Find the bid that maximizes Fine Line’s expected profit. Max expected profit $ ________ . Bid that maximizes profit $ ________ .arrow_forwardQ1: find the Reliability of component in the system in fig(1) by minimal cut method. Q2: A component A with constant failure rate 1.5 per 1000 h, B per to 2 in 1000h, A and B in parallel, find the Reliability system? [ by exponential distribution]. Q3: Give an example to find the minimal path and estimate the reliability of this block diagram. Q4: By Tie set method find the Reliability of fig (2) FUZarrow_forwardnot use ai please don'tarrow_forward
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