2019 Mylabmanagement With Pearson Etext --standalone Access Card-- For Essentials Of Organizational Behavior
14th Edition
ISBN: 9780135835647
Author: Stephen Robbins, Timothy A. Judge
Publisher: PEARSON
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Question
Chapter 6, Problem 4LO
Summary Introduction
To contrast: The rational model of decision making against the bounded rationality and intuition.
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Students have asked these similar questions
Scenario
You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill.
Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials
they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast
error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%.
You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on
five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential
Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given
data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast.
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next
month.
Remember to select the forecasting technique that produces the forecast error nearest to zero. For example:
a. Naïve Forecast is 230 and the Forecast Error is -15.
b. 3-Month Moving Forecast is 290 and the Forecast Error is -75.
c. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .2 is 308 and the Forecast Error is -93.
d. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .5 is 279 and the Forecast Error is -64.
e. Seasonal Forecast is 297 and the Forecast Error is -82.
The forecast for the next month would be 230 as the Naïve Forecast had the Forecast Error closest to zero with a
-15. This forecasting technique was the best performing technique for that month. You do not need to do any
external analysis-the forecast error for each strategy is already calculated for you in the tables below.
Naïve
Month Period
Actual
Demand
Naïve Forecast
Error
3-
Month
Moving
Forecast
3-
Month
Moving…
Scenario
You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill.
Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials
they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast
error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%.
You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on
five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential
Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given
data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast.
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…
Chapter 6 Solutions
2019 Mylabmanagement With Pearson Etext --standalone Access Card-- For Essentials Of Organizational Behavior
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